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BlizzardWx

Meteorologist
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About BlizzardWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTUL
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  • Location:
    Tulsa Oklahoma

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  1. BlizzardWx
    Good agreement on that positive PNA to start out November among all modeling systems. (Yeah I know I need to clean this graphic up a bit but I guess it'll get the job done for today)
  2. BlizzardWx
    What a difference a year makes.
  3. BlizzardWx
    What's the data? I might be able to help. I agree here that this is different than much of the last decade plagued by split forcing. I don't know that in the end it will mean any more snow or cold...but it is different and we shouldn't assume the last 12 years will necessarily hold this year.
  4. BlizzardWx
    What could be interesting is if el nino forcing indeed is summarily shoved eastward could the typical warm anomaly that sits over the Great Lakes be pushed far enough east that we get more cold air into the US like the CFS is showing? We could also get the moisture from having an active storm track into the south like you would expect in strong el nino. So I am not saying I am buying it, but just wondering out loud on what it will actually mean. Does shifting the forcing east linearly shift the pattern? That isn't always the case either.
  5. BlizzardWx
    Please let me know about anything else you want added. I am going to attempt a shorter time scale MEI at some point as well, like perhaps a rolling 1 month average that updates daily or something like that.
  6. BlizzardWx
    At least the IOD has finally popped positive as long expected. This along with the rising PDO and resumption of the strengthening El Nino all points towards a different winter ahead than what we have seen for much of the last decade. I suspect warm and wet down here for most of it, with a window for some cold or snow sometime Jan or Feb.
  7. BlizzardWx
    Sorry on the slow reply, we have a new baby in the house so I've been pretty checked out. I am now doing some backend overhaul to clean up some bad coding from one of my AI agents but I will get the seasonal forecast on there soon if it didn't fix itself already. Anybody who has worked with AI knows what I am talking about when I say extreme tunnel vision in AI agents makes coding "islands" and if you don't manage it carefully it can get pretty out of hand. The PDO calculation is a little higher on mine, probably because I went to some effort to try to normalize out the global warming signal. It should at least trend up and down at the same rate as NOAA but have less of a negative bias.
  8. BlizzardWx
    That's just climo for that part of the world August-September. It's always cooling this time of year, but just less so than typical this year.
  9. BlizzardWx
    ECMWF clusters week 3-6 seem to net hint at a move towards +PNA ridging in western Canada but there is a solid second group keeping ridging going somewhere in south-central Canada or north-central USA as we head into fall.
  10. BlizzardWx
    Yep! I will put this on my list to get fixed. Appreciate the tip. I am having a lot of fun with it though like wishcasting a SSW
  11. BlizzardWx
    It's always possible a mistake was made, especially considering the massive amount of things I am working on to get it live. I will take a second pass on the cansips to see if I messed something up.
  12. BlizzardWx
    It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools. I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site.
  13. BlizzardWx
    MJO has certainly been hugging the 6-7-8-1 this summer. If that carries into the winter it'd be a nice change to continuous 4-5-6.
  14. BlizzardWx
    I added these animations to my website if you want to make them. You can see the cold water building up to the west now with with the crazy warmth to the east. Edit: Just noticed South America is missing ha but I will fix it ARMOR3D_equatorial_subsurface_anom_2026-08-08_loop (1).mp4
  15. BlizzardWx
    For an el nino summer, we've sure been cooking in the south lately, and it looks like a week or more of 100+ temps coming. Very unusual for el nino from my understanding...but I still think once we get more into fall the STJ will increase with angular momentum working north.
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