HailMan06

7 hours ago, snywx said:

You are in Middletown now? I see you mentioned E Main so im assuming in the city?

Yeah I'm living in Middletown right now.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How do we get freezing rain at 33?  And what's the highest temp you can have freezing rain at?

 

32F

The air temp could he a couple degrees warmer but the surface must be below freezing.

Sleet/freezing rain changed to sleet/snow in Middletown (Orange County). A power line went down on E.Main St a block away from me and the roads are terrible. Stay safe.

I look to be in a good position to see 1'+ here in Middletown, NY.

4 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

all the discussion moved to fineprint 

How do I go over?

What happened @stormtracker?

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

He was for a sec

For good. Whatever better late than never.

I've said that Phin should have been banned months ago.

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

The hinges are falling off after the whistleblower thing. We all knew this day would come. 

Tall about snowflakes.

7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Jonger and phin saw that they were about to get styled on and ddos’ed it. They are permabanned and staff is working to get things running soon. This is all per texts with black ops mods here, so take that fwiw. 

Seriously? Ok then.

What happened to the Americanpol site? I haven't been able to access it the last few hours.

On 6/6/2019 at 12:35 PM, forkyfork said:

it's a matter of when, not if. btw what's a good annual that resists root rot? the soil here is heavy clay and it's a pain in the ass

Move out of the Newark Basin.

3 hours ago, Cfa said:

A bit off topic....but has anyone else noticed that London Plane Trees across the area appear to be dying out in droves? 

It’s most noticeable in the city as it’s the most common street tree, tons of dry/dead foliage, trees are barely green or completely dead altogether. Last week a large branch fell on a tourist in Manhattan.

This is occurring on Long Island as well, however they’re far less abundant, so it isn’t as big of an issue as it is for NYC.

Maybe this?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2019/05/21/fungal-disease-may-have-caused-tree-limb-to-fall-on-washington-square-park-visitor/amp/

2 hours ago, Fantom X said:

Not looking forward to it. I'm missing the Long Island sea breeze!

Where are you living now?

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks as lush as a temperate rainforest out there when we get sunnier intervals.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1128025501556252673

This image shows many locations have seen their most number of days reporting at least 0.01" of rain dating back to this time last year. All the "1s" have seen their most number days w/ at least 0.01" reported since May 12, 2018. It includes NYC, Houston, New Orleans, & Hartford.

Slightly ot but I wonder if temperate rainforest is what our region is transitioning to with our climate becoming warmer/wetter over the long-term.

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

remember when above normal meant warm and sunny

That's what warm minimums will do.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just go into xmacis2 and explore all the different categories of data. Open up the single station menu at the top first.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

I like weatherspark.com a lot. They give a complete history of all airport obs internationally, as well as exceptional climate data. 

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was a record breaking WAR/SE Ridge in 2018. The background warming and extremes of this climate combined with the La Niña. So we can see how a piece of that pattern can stay stuck in place. Fits with the 2010’s stuck and stagnant pattern themes.

Yeah that ridge was so strong we basically experienced a northerly extension of the trades. It was an interestingly wet summer I felt like I was on the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

 

We have to be careful since there's an upside risk for more icing.

From the main storm discussion thread:

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Sorry if already posted (hard to keep up), but The mesoscale, short-term models are showing significant freezing rain risks for much of the area.  The HRRR and CMC-RDPS are both showing about 0.1" of freezing rain for the 95 corridor NE of Trenton (and NW of Philly) and are showing a lot more than that NW of there, i.e., up to 0.5", which would be horrendous if it verified. Nobody wants to see that, but folks should be aware of this risk. NAM is showing the freezing rain risk to be NW of 95, not along it, at least in NJ. Maps below. 

 

•  

How much FRZA are we expecting for Orange county?

Snowing moderately in Middletown. 18/14

~3/4" OTG

Yet another year that feels like February is transitioning into a Spring month.

22 hours ago, forkyfork said:

causing some cool looking skies

 

Northerly extension of the trades?

14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

A section of Upton's AFD, Keep an eye out for descrete cells in front of the advancing lines.

Over northern portions of NE NJ, most of the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior portions of SW CT and NW Middlesex County -
this area should see the highest CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) and is
under the core of the low level theta-e ridge axis and the EML
(700-500 hPa lapse rates around 8C), so has been placed under an
Elevated Risk for Severe Thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC). With slightly lower CAPE, and some marine
influence,NYC, the remainder of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE
NJ, coastal SW CT, most of interior SE CT and Nassau County and
portions of NW Suffolk County are under a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms. The remainder of the area, with the potential for
severe storms to sustain themselves into the area (except for
the S fork of Long Island) is under a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms.

Across the Enhanced Risk area, Bulk Richardson numbers are 15 to
25 indicating the potential for isolated supercells ahead of the
main line of storms. Given high Energy Helicity Indices and
Significant Tornado Parameter (both greater than 1) there is
the potential for isolated tornadoes, especially in any isolated
supercells that form ahead of the main squall line.

SPC mentions the possibility of this becoming a derecho.