HailMan06

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't say easily but it's up there.

At least for us here in Jersey, yes.

1 minute ago, guinness77 said:

I can’t believe I’m typing this but this may be the worst Metro event since Sandy. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that my area continues to dodge a bullet. I don’t think the true scope of what’s happened tonight will come to light until tomorrow and the following days either. 

Easily

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The Passaic is going to destroy little falls/totawa/etc. 

Paterson, Passaic, Newark, and others.

So I’m guessing that September will end up being another wet month.

48 minutes ago, Rjay said:

90 at EWR

Tropical

I’ve never seen the air this clear before, especially in such a humid airmass.

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks one of rare cases of a hurricane not attached to a stalled frontal zone in New England. The poleward outflow channel usually extends far to the north of these landfalling tropical cyclones. It must be related to the phase with the closed low to our SW.

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is an immensely complex course work to do so.  Start with this ... with scientific thesaurus in tow where needed:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jlu0701.pdf

The HC's northern boundary where it terminates into the westerlies is not fix boundary or 'curb' in free air either.  It's really along where the gradient steepens, and the jets ( westerlies ) ablate past.. .It bulges, up then collapsing down ... over time, while the mean width appears to be growing since the hockey-stick era of CC really begin in the last 25 years...

Anyway, the idea leveled a moment ago was speculative that now is one of those expanded bulge times... I mean how hard is that to guess, when the 582 is so far N and the 588 too... We are immersed in 575 thickness, with 85/75 Peruvian jungle air.  It's not a huge leap to figure why a TC moving into this region would actually NOT encounter "colder" conditions than it is leaving - at least not cold enough to be a baroclinic/frontal genesis.

Thank you so much. I will read through the paper when I have the chance but it what I did see it explains a lot.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow nearly fully barotropic and warm-core.

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

know why ?    ( wait for it - you'll love this one ...)

Hadley Cell.       I think so.  It's shell is beyond our latitude with Henri fully still engulfed inside the non-hydrostatic boundary, it is behaving like a warm atmsophere/cold ocean relic and just starving as opposed to encountering thermodynamic gradients and baroclinic physics. 

Fascinating.

Could you expand on this @Typhoon Tip?

@LibertyBell

Just now, USCG RS said:

Wow. That's.. Wow. The nerd in me is very very very intrigued. 

Me too

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The rgem has trended hundreds of miles west of the last few runs

 

 

You can see how tropical the storm is with the isobars lining up well with the 500mb heights.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Another shift west by hurricane models

Those western models would make the QPF queens in Jersey happy.

5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

How much for Philly?

Meh 850’s look a bit too warm, any precip that falls will likely just be rain showers.

Just now, Rjay said:

"Hey, you never know"

It’s the NAM or bust.

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

 

Wait....are you saying that there won’t be a Cat 5 hurricane barreling toward us?

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20212201306_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-2400x2400.jpg

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's annoying to have all this humidity and not the heat.  Is the Atlantic more to blame or the Gulf of Mexico?  I read that if we could remove the Gulf of Mexico or at the very least set up a high mountain range north of it (like the Himalayas are north of the Bay of Bengal), our summers would be much less humid and much nicer (meaning hot and dry).

 

I won’t go anymore OT but if there were a website that you could go to and experiment with different physical geographic parameters that would be a fascinating place for me to go spend my free time. Something like a climatic/meteorological sandbox.

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

meh

This aged well

12 hours ago, Cfa said:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen strong/severe thunderstorms both precede and succeed a Tropical Storm by a matter of hours.

This tropical system was probably more barotropic than what we’re used to. A more tropical and less baroclinic system means minimal air mass boundaries and a less stable atmosphere behind any cold front that existed.

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the only thing that can save us it an easterly flow...

Bring on the Trades?

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. 
 

Is Idaho prepared for climate refugees from California?

https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers-opinion/article237278474.html

 

Wildfires in California are igniting more than chaparral and forest. They are firing up additional reasons Californians will seek safer, blackout-free homes in Idaho. 

An Oct. 28 San Francisco Chronicle article sounded an ominous alarm: “fires intensified fears California has become almost too dangerous to inhabit.” This is exceedingly bad news for Idaho.

For our state to remain the place we love, Idahoans should be cheering for California to address its problems lest they soon become our own. We should acknowledge that the entire arid American West shares a common danger, and Idaho is not exempt.

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-up-and-moved-during-the-pandemic-heres-where-they-went-11620734566?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Most of the southwest is utterly unfit for human habitation, let alone the massive sprawl that has sprung up around Phoenix, LV and LA in recent decades. These water crises are only going to get worse.

Population growth alone would have cause a water crisis anyway being in such a dry region. CC just speeds up that timeline.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

As much as I’d root for a local TC (yes I may be in the minority) anytime you mention JB I’d use my Galileo thermometer before that guy.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yea it looks very midsummery by next weekend.

Upper 80s to low 90s with dewey conditions. Maybe some severe too? 

Hopefully the June heat signals more impressive heat for July. I'm hoping to see 100s at least once this year. 

One caveat is that the strongest ridging will be to our N/NE so it wouldn't surprise me if models picked up more onshore flow days as we got closer. 

Yeah this has been happening often in our recent summers and keep asking if it’s actually a northern extension of the Trades.