DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE
SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID
OH VALLEY REGION...
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES.
WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN
BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO
PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE
LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A
FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT.
Sounds like they wanted to go Mod but too many question marks at this junction to go mod.
Probably the GFS, its the hot hand right now. Although the Euro 12z has came in line with the GFS fairly nicely, so if that were to continue you would have inter/intramodel consistency from 2 of the best models.
Wait this cant be a true, a chase potential on my day off ?
Talk about a high octane potential too. Like Baro said its been a while since we have seen a pattern like this. Compounded by what has already happened so far this month.