AllWeather

Doing the showings this weekend! Told my clients to lay low Monday.

It’s the frame after that that gets fun. Mixing does creep north, but once CCB forms it gets squashed. See a 4”+ QPF lollipop in there around southern Lanc Co. That’s wild.

00z CMC Kuchera

Lanc Co has 36”+ per TT and still snowing.

CMC is a mauling.

And it’s still snowing on the last frame.

00z RGEM looks tucked and amped up.

Problem with Miller Bs. If you’re caught between the handoff you can be in that “screw zone” of subsidence.

Seems like it's all I have time for lately - the real estate market is INSANE right now. That being said... These Miller Bs are always butt clenchers....always. So many things can go wrong. That being said, I like the southern/southeastern half of the state per the ensembles. I also think with that anomalous fetch off the ocean, some underplaying in QPF on the globals is likely.

Like this: edit: look at that band in N PA into NY. Wow!

There seemed to have some sort of mini max from the Marietta area up into the northern part of the county.

Finished with 11” of a sleet sandwich in Manheim and it’s a beast to shovel. Sprayed some cooking spray on the shovel and that helps!

Sleet in Manheim, Lancaster County.

Golf ball sized snow here in Manheim. The sleet line cometh.

Yeah. That’s the good good right there.

Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia...northern Virginia...western Maryland...and central to eastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161857Z - 170000Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour are expected to increase in coverage through the mid to late afternoon hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snowfall will likely continue into the overnight hours for portions of eastern/northeastern Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to gradually increase in coverage across much of the Mid-Atlantic region within a broad swath of strong warm air advection between 850-700 mb (per recent RAP soundings and mesoanalysis). Mixed precipitation types continue to be reported within the precipitation transition zone along the Roanoke to Fredericksburg, VA line. While a wintry mix, including pockets of freezing rain, will continue in the near term, this zone should become more limited spatially through the mid/late afternoon hours. Further north, moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates have been observed (as evidenced by visibility reductions to one-quarter mile and observed snow rates around 2 inches per hour for some locations in northeast WV). Heading through the afternoon, the low that is currently advancing northward along the Carolina coast will continue to deepen. As this occurs, mid-level winds will strengthen and begin to tighten the 850-700 mb baroclinic zone and augment warm advection across the region. As isentropic and frontogenetical lift increase, snowfall rates will see a corresponding uptick in intensity. Lift within the dentritic growth zone and weak instability closer to the coast will help further augment snowfall rates. Widespread snowfall rates above 1 inch per hour over the region are likely, and the potential for widespread snowfall rates exceeding two inches per hour will increase through 00 UTC as the potential for organized frontogenetical/deformation-driven snow bands increases.

Blow it up this way, k?

Yes - though that feature is getting going now as the primary is handing off to the coastal. A lot of what you see on radar is overrunning it appears.

Sounds about right looking at those returns in MD headed this way

Festive flurries have begun in Manheim, LancCo

He’s one of the best there is, especially for this region. My thoughts are similar to his. The warm nose will no doubt climb into SE counties...how far it goes north is the million dollar question. I’m in Manheim, but I still think I’ll flip to sleet at some point, but could also be timed with any potential dry slot. The warm nose is actually above 850, so 850/925 T maps look good, but the sleet period will be due to what’s happening between 800-700mb. Regardless, the thump is going to be thumpin’ and if the back end deform zone can get going like the RGEM shows, then even far SE zones will finish off with some fun. Either way, it’s the best shot at wintry weather we’ve had in several years, and given how much this year has sucked, I plan to soak it alllllll in.

Smells like snow.

I spent 2 nights at the TV station for that one. Finished with 32”. Our Jeep Grand Cherokee high-centered in our flat driveway.

bUt ThE rAtIoS

This will be my first winter storm in 8 years where I don’t have to worry about a “viewing area” forecast. I get to enjoy the storm IMBY with my family.