AllWeather

I’m surprised at the expanse of sleet in the Philly area. That LLJ must really be cranking.

Puking gigantic snowflakes in Manheim. Wow.

Haha bring it! We back to a farm and it’s usually snowmobiles 24/7 when it snows.

About 4.5” at chateau de la Moore in Manheim.

17.9” 1.5” liquid

A cigar and a glass of Johnnie Walker Blue Label, please.

I agree, and those numbers will probably change with today's full 12z suite in (or maybe after 00z tonight). Communicating this information to the average Joe is a science in itself. If you prepare people for a 6"+ snow, they typically will hunker down anyways. Then if totals go higher, it doesn't really affect them too much more other than additional clean up because they were already prepped to lay low (obviously if it's a crusher storm, the clean up can linger for days). On the contrary, if you prep people for a blockbuster, and it goes bust - well that affects people in a variety of socioeconomic ways (i.e. they closed their businesses when they didn't have to, took off work to stay home with their kids, etc). These forecasters must walk a fine line....it's easier for the public to understand if you go conservative and get surprised. However pitchforks are way more likely to come out if you overblow it and get surprised the other way.

Thank you for the kind words! And yeah, was always a real balance striking the right tone for a variety of different types of viewers. Some HATE snow, while others love it, so you have to be careful. My goal was always just to lay out what we know and be honest about what we didn’t know, and what could “go wrong” with a forecast. I think people respect that.

Giggity

Doing the showings this weekend! Told my clients to lay low Monday.

It’s the frame after that that gets fun. Mixing does creep north, but once CCB forms it gets squashed. See a 4”+ QPF lollipop in there around southern Lanc Co. That’s wild.

00z CMC Kuchera

Lanc Co has 36”+ per TT and still snowing.

CMC is a mauling.

And it’s still snowing on the last frame.

00z RGEM looks tucked and amped up.

Problem with Miller Bs. If you’re caught between the handoff you can be in that “screw zone” of subsidence.

Seems like it's all I have time for lately - the real estate market is INSANE right now. That being said... These Miller Bs are always butt clenchers....always. So many things can go wrong. That being said, I like the southern/southeastern half of the state per the ensembles. I also think with that anomalous fetch off the ocean, some underplaying in QPF on the globals is likely.

He’s one of the best there is, especially for this region. My thoughts are similar to his. The warm nose will no doubt climb into SE counties...how far it goes north is the million dollar question. I’m in Manheim, but I still think I’ll flip to sleet at some point, but could also be timed with any potential dry slot. The warm nose is actually above 850, so 850/925 T maps look good, but the sleet period will be due to what’s happening between 800-700mb. Regardless, the thump is going to be thumpin’ and if the back end deform zone can get going like the RGEM shows, then even far SE zones will finish off with some fun. Either way, it’s the best shot at wintry weather we’ve had in several years, and given how much this year has sucked, I plan to soak it alllllll in.

Smells like snow.

I spent 2 nights at the TV station for that one. Finished with 32”. Our Jeep Grand Cherokee high-centered in our flat driveway.

bUt ThE rAtIoS

This will be my first winter storm in 8 years where I don’t have to worry about a “viewing area” forecast. I get to enjoy the storm IMBY with my family.

00z CMC goes full over my house

I remember Jan 2016 was showing up STRONG in the guidance at 6-7 days out. By day 4-5, there was this kind of consistency and it just locked in from there.