Bubbler86

Right, I am just discussing what the 18Z GFS showed. If that surface or 850 reflection gets anywhere near Philly 1) We are toast snow wise. 2) It will leave our state disappointed which is the standard reaction of most who decide Philly should be on their vacation plans.

Out of the hunt was specific to this particular model run. I personally would prefer rain and 50's over a couple inches of snow and then rain and 30's. If you look back at some classic MEC/HEC situations, even in the times of a deeper cold mass, we want the surface reflection down near Norfolk and east of the DelMarVa not running right through the DelMarVa. We need it south of what the 12Z GFS showed regardless of the algorithms that showed snow on it. One positive considering our lack of CAD/deep cold air is there is little forcing shown in the GFS so there should not be a spout of warm air coming up....just do not want ANY warm air considering we have no cold to give :-). It shows almost the same exact thing happening again on Jan 30. Not as much the origination vs. a low running right through the DelMarVa which is just far enough north to turn the LSV over. Our benchmark in the LSV is not on land.

Well 18Z GFS took all of the Southern 1/3 of PA out of the hunt for now but still close enough to watch.

While we wait for the next model to step up and be our hero we can throw anything we want out to see if it sticks...I looked at the JMA and NoGaps and both seem to move the low under PA though it is very close and would probably not be snow for the LSV taken verbatim with marginal air.

Before you know it this thing will be in the range of the NAM and things will quickly look better.

120 Euro looks a lot like the Canadian as to low placement

Yea I was just kidding as that seems to be a popular phrase this year. Every storm is a forum divider in some aspect as if LSV gets hit big then Willliamsport is usually fringed.

It's a forum divider!

Goof is traveling faster and further south at 0z. Ups the stakes.

To personally show you my appreciation if my backyard gets 2" or more of snow between Friday the 24th and Monday the 27th I will name this Storm The Blizzard of 93 Storm. And to show you I keep with those names I still call last November the @Eskimo Joe Storm as he was on here alerting everyone to it when the models did not want to hear it.

This is very good news. Yesterday we were seeing 65 yard punts so if we can find something as this cold snap ends it will be a big bonus.

Quite squally south of hanover

Surprisingly still Frz here.

We are going to need Blizz to keep us going as verbatim the LR models are literally punting into the second week of Feb. Jeff Feagles and Ray Guy are red with embarrassment as to how much punting they are doing.

Wow, that is REALLY odd but was forecasted pretty well by the HRRR I believe which had pockets of snow as the main shield moved out.

I am hoping the CAD holds for us in some manner as if the damn breaks and the HRRR/GFS depictions are right we are going into the 40's south of the turnpike.

Looks to me like @daxx is getting 1" hour type sleet right now.

12 foot storm surge with that squall line. The ocean made it back to Weekiewatchie which is well inland. 96MPH gust in Tampa and one 6" snow report on the panhandle. Amazing.

Heavy Freezing Rain with significant ice build up at this point. Probably should have gone WSW for us as there are 1-2" icicles hanging from all exposed areas at this point. Trees, mailboxes...street is sold ice. Still 30 degrees.

Super Storm of 93 caused sub zero temps in Florida as well (I think) and plowable snow in several areas down there....just no plows to plow it!

Not New York. Not Philadelphia. Proud to be New Jersey!

Light Frz and 30 degrees.

...says the guy in the great PA Snow Hole of 2020 :-)

Yep, pretty much the same over here. Even route 16!

Sleet bomb is so intense here that even main roads are become covered where they were just dry from the coating of snow prior to the sleet. Would guess 1/4 - 1/2" of sleet already.