Northern Foothills Snowman

13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Please tell me Duke is winning 

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

That FV3 dont send a tingle down your leg nothing will. We will have to work hard,very hard to screw up next weekend into early next week. But if theres a way ..... ah,think posotive. Gfs twins got their act bqck together h5 tonight.

Can you share some of those maps for FV3 a s GFS?

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Day 10. And the big spoke is blocked still. Good shape and should have open window following week, even if we do miss out next weekend peidmont foothills.

ECNorth Amer

Sing

 

Looks good to me. 

Robert at Wxsouth hasa great post about the cold coming  

53 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

Yep.  Rinse and repeat every winter.

Well earlier this weeks temps were supposed to be in the low 50’s today for highs. . This forecast is showing 48. 

Woke up to 43 this morning. Since rain has come in temperatures have actually dropped to 42 as of 12:30 pm.Dont know if thst will have an effect if rain were to chance over later.   

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS is almost as cold as Euro! Sucks to have two big models be wrong!

What if they are right?  

 it 

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The theme of the weeklies the last 3 weeks: weeks 3 and 4 look amazing!

There again why do we go out 3 and 4 weeks. 

Summer looks hot in 6 months. Wow. 

11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

 

@psuhoffman 

Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

We had snow in Surry County today. The ground was getting white. It came down fast and furious for a while. 

I’m just telling you this because no models were showing this. No mention of snow on our forecast until it was getting close. 

Just sying storms may come with very little warning  

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Even Robert was close to punting earlier this month. He is starting to come around now but hasnt been as excited as I would expect in "a blockbuster pattern"

If you are talking about Robert at wxsouth he was not close to punting. He had the flu. 

He even said on the 6th that a lot of people were thinking he was saying winter was cancelled. He said that was not what he was saying at all.

He came out twice on the 14 th with Artic blast next weekend. Not this weekend but next week  

I don’t understand why when models show a snowstorm in 10’days some say it not going to happen or it’s a clown map.

However let models show a warm up coming or a hick up in the  model run and some of the same believe its ected in stone. 

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Been a historical weather year here the past 12 months. 105+ inches of rain, over 15 inches of snow this winter, and 3 ice storms. Oh it’s just January. 

And the best is yet to come for winter. 

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Cold coming down post storm: watch the clipper as well. Throwing stuff against the wall hunting anything to stick.

That’s what I don’t understand about talk that MJO going warm in long range. We can’t even get a storm settled less than 4  days out but we know that MJO is gong to warm phase because One model says so. 

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). 

Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others:

 

Brad Panovich has a good video this morning on the cold coming. Brad Panovich Twitter 

27 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I remember that year like it was yesterday. I lived in Virginia beach and we ended up with 18" with 6 foot drifts. I also remember getting over 40" that season. Most epic snow year ever. broke all kinds of records.

70’s were pretty cold and snowy. 

Of course we only had 3channels,12 2 and 8, to watch to see if and when winter weather was coming. 12 and 2 always went on the low side  so I would go with channel 8 and hope for he was right.  12 and 2 would say 1-3. And channel 8 would say 2-4. 

Loved it when they came out and bumped the totals up.

Frank Deal was on channel 8 and he was great at forecasting winter storm.

2 minutes ago, SENC said:

My Local NWS calling for Snow Showers on the 21st, (Monday next week) this is what the GFSFV3 is showing.. What is to be believed ?? 

 

540 line is all the way down in Florida. There goes the fruit prices. 

Anyone been paying attention to the radar for Washington DC?

it started snowing yesterday and it’s still snowing. I’m happy for them but a I’m ready to see that for us in the SE too. 

Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. Ice is only good in sweet tea and water.

J/B is all pumped up about winter coming.  

Hope he’s right again 

1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Lol Sure I don’t believe an 1.5 or even a 1 of ice anywhere!!! but it has been consistent on being a ice storm in CAD areas. Let’s see what happens then we toss or if it’s close to right “do we toss the other short range models”? Hope you get in on a mix and I think you will.


.

Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. 

J/B is all pumped up about winter coming.  

Hope he’s right again 

18 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Interesting from Judah Cohen!!
I feel like the Canadian regional model is a solid model and should be considered seriously more so than their global model.


.

Can you show the model?

16 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

The big dog "Joe Bastardi" is beating the drum that brutal cold will begin effecting the east coast for a 7 week period starting later this month into March.... Claims this was his forecast from last August....We shall see if he is correct or a bust....

Yeah he says all players are on the field  

He did make forecast back in August about a cold and snowy winter.

5 minutes ago, ForsythWx said:

Super misleading map, but 18z vs 0z frozen precip on Nam

Wow. 

Just wish it had support of other models. 

13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

OZ Nam Jackpots Frosty 6 inches. DC doesnt even get 1 inch. They end up 9/10ths an inch of snow. 

 

Edit:  This is the bone dry 3k nam, Regular Nam has 4-8 across all Triad

Can you show this map?

4 minutes ago, SVA_SN said:

Nasty ice storm for far nw nc and southern va on the 18z nam. Widespread .5 - .75" ice totals. I hope some of that will be sleet to cut back on those numbers if what the nam is showing comes to fruition. 

Would like to see a snow like your member page shows. When was that storm?

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

How does 12z Euro look?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/snow-depth-in/20190115-1200z.html

That’s with the little extra for Monday too. 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The NAM is a mess...

Good or bad?

also when is next model run? 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah, I hate to say it but this one is trending in the wrong direction if you want snow/Ice

Still time to change and give us the goods. 

Cold and Snow that is. 

15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

So what's the story with the precip lingering into Monday?  Is that some sort of deformation band?  Anything for Raleigh to get excited about?

Passage of polar jet from what I’ve read. 

Could be flurries or snowshowers. Just don’t know yet