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Northern Foothills Snowman

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Posts posted by Northern Foothills Snowman

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, UNCCmetgrad said:

    One thing to remember is that front end thump of snow will only serve to lock in CAD. Thats why I'm particularly worried about icing in areas where that warm nose reaches and don't quite buy some of the modeling that wants to scour out the subfreezing temperatures Sunday

    .

    It’s had to get the air to warm when it’s cold and cloudy and snow on the ground. 

    To give you and example last Sunday while many on here were enjoying a mild day in 60’s we in Surry County were stuck at 50-52 with fog. 

     

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, bargainmusic said:

    16.4"! Bring it on!

     

    8 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

    I live just west of Hickory in that bright green spot center in burke lord that would be a lifetime total for me.

    Isn’t the FV3 the  new model that took the place of the GFS?

    supposed to be the best thing out since sliced bread.

    December 2018 Obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Wow said:

    Getting a "likely" for any precipitation 6 days out is quite rare.  But given how wet it's been, not surprised.  

    Currently 51.  The forecast for this weekend was way off with the rain and temps. 

    Yea I don’t believe we’ll see 60’s or upper 50’s for that matter that was projected a few days ago.

    Fog is still holding on at 4:13 in Surry Co. and temperature of 52

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

    Allright last one of the season.

    ROLL CALL

    Hope the handull of posters in this thread from last week get one more trip in tommorow  to watch the boys net the 3peat. A rainy cold day in Boone is always better than a day spent on the laz-boy in front of a fire. After that im sitting here trying to figure out how to break the bank and get to NOLA.

    Go App. 

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

    Makes me think of the really cold winter we had in the late 90’s I believe.  Pond froze over in our neighborhood enough to walk on.  Several teenagers, definitely a dumb idea but luckily no one fell in. :)

     Never happened again after that or anywhere close really.  Not sure if it was snowy that year or not as I could see that much cold suppressing storms but regardless definitely excited!

    We had ponds frozen here last winter. First 2 weeks of January  temps not above freezing. I saw images of someone I've skating on a pond in Surry County. 

    • Like 2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

    GFS has shown that minimum over the foothills for days every run practically that’s the only thing it’s been consistent with LOL

     

     

    .

     

    I’ve noticed that too. It’s like someone puts a white glob over Surry County. 

    But then we end up getting snow anyway. 

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

     

    index (3).png

    We have the teleconnections where we need them for the SE to get winter weather

    1.-NAO - first in a while

    2.-AO 

    3.+PNA 

    4. And most importantly Blocking  

    5.MJO is coming out in phase 2/3  

    Do I wish this were January or February? Yes. But this can still deliver the goods even in March. 

    • Like 2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

    Here's the latest GSP AFD regarding this weekend's threat.  Interesting that someone mentioned how it seems to snow a lot during the ACC tournament.  I am 53 and it seemed like there was a lot of ice or snow at the ACC tournament every year when it was in Greensboro in the 70's and 80's.  Maybe just my feeble memory but sure seemed like there was a WSW about every year when the tournament rolled around.

      

    
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Monday: The fcst for the weekend sure looks
interesting. After a break in the action Friday with flat upper
ridging and high pressure moving across the southeast, moisture
will begin to return from the Gulf and will spread across the
region Friday night ahead of a weak surface low. Isentropic
upglide may force the development of light precip overnight, and
that is fcst to improve on Saturday as the sfc low organizes to
the west. Precip prob rises into the likely range over the mtns
by the end of the day, and keeps improving from there. The high
precip chances continue Saturday night with the sfc low passing to
the south Sunday morning while a deepening upper low approaches
from the WNW. On that track, any severe weather chances would be
confined to the coastal plain. Heavy rain might be a concern, but
it is too early to mention in the HWO. Temps will rise back above
normal at least on Saturday and into Sunday morning. The interesting
stuff happens in the operational guidance on Sunday, with both
models bringing the center of the upper low down across our region
late in the day and off to the east Sunday night. The upper low
center would be accompanied by very cold air aloft, also meaning
very cold mid-level thickness and very steep lapse rates. Precip
would/could change over to snow over the mtns early in the day,
and then possibly change over to snow outside the mtns around
sunset Sunday evening as the very cold air aloft moves overhead. The
track and strength of the upper low is key. We have seen March snow
events like this in the past, when a cold upper low moves directly
overhead. That said, it is far too early to make significant changes
to the fcst at this time, without seeing a few cycles of the GEFS,
but a trend in a cooler direction will be started. So, for now,
we will keep this idea on a back burner. Precip will stay mainly
rain apart from the very highest elevations and temps will remain
on the warm side. Stay tuned, though. Precip should taper off to
the TN border area on Monday with more NW flow as the upper low
goes on to induce another major sfc low offshore.

    The March 93 storm was during the ACC Tournament too. 

    • Like 1
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