Northern Foothills Snowman

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I’m not mad at it

Now we go into phase 8 of MJO. 
About a month or so too late. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

My bad. I was in DJF mode. In reality, phases 4 and 5 average near normal in the SE for FMA with 6 and 7 the warmest ones averaged out. Coldest averaged out are 1, 2 and 3. But regardless, MJO phase correlations are only moderate:

So which one do you go by in March?

JFM FMA MAM?

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s MJO forecasts suggest an increased chance for moderate or stronger phases 4 and 5 starting ~March 5. The folks wanting it mild to warm then should be happy about this. Also although very much a fwiw being how poorly they’ve done, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies are mainly mild Mar 1-10.

Have an MJO question I’m curious about. 
JFM you want 1,2,3 &8 for  cold phases. 
FMA they are the same. 
MAM has 1,2,3,4&8 as cold. 
So if MJO goes into 4 isn’t that a cold phase for March?
Trying to understand this  

15 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=12&start_day=1&start_year=1992&end_month=3&end_day=31&end_year=1993&event[0]=snow

My bad after looking at ice storm we had .46 ice in December of 92

2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=1&start_day=1&start_year=2018&end_month=12&end_day=31&end_year=2018&event[]=snow&pg=2

This one doesn’t show it. 
Above is what I was basing my comment on 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=12&start_day=1&start_year=1992&end_month=3&end_day=31&end_year=1993&event[0]=snow

Sentthe wrong one the first time. 

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing  rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=1&start_day=1&start_year=2018&end_month=12&end_day=31&end_year=2018&event[]=snow&pg=2

This one doesn’t show it. 
Above is what I was basing my comment on 

42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Some signs of a few non-accumulating pity flakes Saturday evening from the ULL. The really shocking thing is we haven't even had more than 30 minutes of frozen precip of any kind during the snow drought. I'm sure the same can't be said of the 90s drought.

We didn’t have any snow December 92 and January February and March 93 until the blizzard happed. 

7 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Thanks 

Just now, Ji said:

Can’t wait to see @stormtracker give us euro pbp at 2:42am lol

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

How is this going to work with crappy mjo phases

I’m is NC foothills near VA border. 
I have a question about the MJO. 
JFM has 1,2,3&8 as cold phases. 
FMA has the same cold phases. 
MAM has 1,2,3,4&7 as cold. 
so which one do we go by in March?

Thansk. 
 

48 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I’m 59 and I remember knee deepers in March of 71 and February of 79.  Some other notable ones were January 87 and 88. 

I’m 62 and I remember the snows in 70’s and 80’s on going winter storms. 
I remember we had 3 TV channels to watch back then.Channel 2 12 and 8  

Channel 8 had a meteorologist named Frank Deal. 
He was the best at forecasting the snowstorms. 
I always liked his forecasts best because he would usually predict more than channel 2 and 12. 
Most of the time he was spot on too  

44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring 

JB says rocking coast to coast til Easter after early March warm. 

28 minutes ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

You've done a wonderful job all winter Larry. It's almost like Mother Nature wants you to keep going lol

https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=cpc

You almost have to laugh at this map. Florida is cooler than most of the US 

2/21-2/25

1 hour ago, Tullioz said:

I agree. My area averages around an inch of snow in March, and as recently as 2018, there was a dusting of snow as late as April 7th. There were also three separate snow events in March of that year, totaling close to 10" for the month, with 3" of that coming on March 24 and 25th. Today is only February 15th, and we still have six weeks to work with. I know the ensambles and other long-range guidance do not look good at the moment, but just a couple of weeks ago, these same forecast tools were showing a great pattern for the period we are in now, and look how that turned out. I'm with you; I think many areas outside the mountains will see some winter weather before this season is over. 

I don’t know the ages of members on this site but I would venture to say many were not around in 1993.I remember it as we didn’t receive any snow that winter before March.We had warm temperatures in February too. 
My wife and I went to Maryland valentines weekend that year. 
40’s and rain at home but major snowstorm on 81 in Va.   

 

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Models never surprise us with snow. Maybe 10+ years ago but it’s a one-way street now 

I may be wrong but I still believe winter weather will still happen in NC before winter is over and not just the mountains. 

8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Remember the advertised pattern shift? Well this is where we are at instead:

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 65. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Friday Night

A slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 55.

It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain. 
Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago?

The models are obviously horrible any more.  
just look at the storm the they just went north.  I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area. 

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That's 10-1 this won't be 10-1 if it's snow at all

Why are some on this site so positive?

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That would work for several. 

I agree. 
one thing curious about and I’ve not heard anyone talk about is the SOI index. 
it been - for 2 weeks and way - at times . Yesterday it was -46.54 today -39.53. 
Wondering if A- index have a bearing on the winter weather in the East?

27 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

No kidding.  Go back and look at some of those projections for late Jan with high amp in phase-6.  Never happened as I thought it wouldn't

Also last month the cold on the 19th 20th we were in phase 5. 
 

2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

So we just throw in the towel in the 3rd quarter. 
I suppose nobody remembers March 93.  
This was before my time but any remember hearing about March 1960 snowing every WednesdayIt stayed cold and the snow didn’t melt. That winter was mild and the first snow didn’t fall until February.  
Just saying just like the Super Bowl Patriots vs Atlanta. It wasn’t over at 1/2 time. 
 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=1&start_day=1&start_year=1960&end_month=3&end_day=31&end_year=1960&event[0]=snow

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GaWx I appreciate your efforts and research but the writing is on the wall. Spring peepers are already singing in WNC and February has just started. They know winter is done. Sure it will get cold again for brief stretches but any prolonged winter pattern with multiple snow threats is a pipe dream. The closer we get to the pattern change the models will continue to moderate and push it back until its a cold front with a couple below average days before it warms up and rains again. 

So we just throw in the towel in the 3rd quarter. 
I suppose nobody remembers March 93.  
This was before my time but any remember hearing about March 1960 snowing every WednesdayIt stayed cold and the snow didn’t melt. That winter was mild and the first snow didn’t fall until February.  
Just saying just like the Super Bowl Patriots vs Atlanta. It wasn’t over at 1/2 time. 
 

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

things are right on track with seasonal monthlies

 

That map looks right Florida cold rest of Us warm. 

51 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Two snow showers the last 30 min

Could y’all share some of the snow to us in the foothill?

We can see it snowing on fisher peak and mountain in Va but nothing here. 

54 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Looking at the long range out 14 days to first week of Feb., the cold in Canada looks better today and looked even better overnight.  NAO looks to stay positive but so does PNA.  MJO looks to maybe get through 6 and some plots have it going into 7.  Still feel like we get our chance in February.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

I agree with you. I believe we score in February. 
The big snow February 12/13/2014 didn’t have A -NAO best I remember. 

Well the forecast high is a bust here today. Was supposed to be 71 degeees but we’re are 58 at 3:45. 

33 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said:

But I thought Bastardi said it was going to be super cold this winter for most of it and those of us in the south were going to see a lot of snow. Guess his hanging on analogs didn't work out so much for him. Way off on everything.

To be fair he’s not alone. A lot of meteorologist were forecasting a block buster winter. 

The west sure has done well and continues to. Just epic for them. 

Definitely let’s you know man is not in control of weather. Only the Lord above knows what’s in our future.