jburns

9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Brace for impact.  The next 3 hours will be the most important 3 hours of our winter weather lives.  

 

Well, until tomorrow night at 9pm I suppose.  

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

3 hours? More like 4 with the King coming out after 1 a.m.

 

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Ensembles are like 4am

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Damn kvegas, what makes you think you can forecast weather when you can’t even handle time. 

31 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Interesting. I feel this is our best shot for the winter. In case no one noticed the average high temp at PTI yesterday was 47.8º.  Today it is 47.9º.  That’s right, yesterday on average was the coldest day of the year. We need to get our snow now because the temps have started their long climb toward our 88.1º summer.

16 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

I agree with all of this. I see the point. It’s not a perfect graphic but on a snow week in news when you have 100 people asking you about the storm in social, when you have to coordinate messaging, when you have to produce a couple of afternoon/evening shows and oh on top of all of that do a bit of forecasting it’s a time saver and a “don’t let perfect get in the way of good” kind of graphic.

I’m tuning out the 00z ICON I thought it looked kind of wonky

I know this is late but I’ve been out all day.  I don’t think you’re making the correct read on the graphic. It is not a “don’t let perfect get in the way of good” kind of graphic.  Quite the opposite. By using values like 22%, 27% etc. instead of just rounding them to the nearest 5 they have made it an “imitation of accuracy to 1% without corroborating data” kind of graphic.

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like we're entering that period where the models start going back and forth. Monday night was great, then started going bad yesterday afternoon, and maybe getting a little improvement now. 

Back and forth they go.

What we'll get, no one really knows. 

And that is why starting a storm thread six days out is not a good idea.  

15 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m here.  Me and Brick Tamland are about to bring the house down. How much for my area?  

On 1/8/2022 at 12:37 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Historically correct 

Also, hysterically incorrect.

22 hours ago, Billypg70 said:

I think a lot on this board will be happy by the middle part of Feb.

Another lie of this magnitude and there will be serious consequences. 

22 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Got a wild hair at 5am and headed north. Needed to see some snow in a bad way. Did a tour of central Va all morning. Stopped by the farm in Henderson on the way back. Good times. Shotgun is yours next trip JB

I’ll be ready.

38 minutes ago, Avdave said:

If we accumulate 25.9" by Jan 17, Ill pull an Antonio Brown down I 40 in Rush hour

Film at 11.

29 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah you need a high enough rate to make it all snow and to overcome the high soil temps. You would need 1 or 2 inches an hour I think to have a shot at coating the ground.

The inch or two of rain that will have fallen before any change over will also make any accumulation even more unlikely. In general I am a strong proponent of snow rate overcoming warm ground but there is a limit. 

1 hour ago, EarlGrey said:

Do I need to get milk and bread yet? Asking for a friend.

One cup of milk and two slices of bread should more than cover this.

Keep the Covid talk out of here.  Off topic is where it belongs.

6 hours ago, Avdave said:

Yay for turning on the AC in December. This just plane sucks.  My palms are loving it though

You’ve been at the airport too much.

2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Happy New Year! 

 

Damn decimals.

3 hours ago, yotaman said:

Low of 42, high of 70. Perfect day.

 

For April.

Nothing like a 78º day in December to get out the mower and mulch all the leaves that were several inches thick. I guessing the depth of the leaves will beat the depth of any snow this winter.

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Not what thread to put this in but Pilot Mountain is in the midst of a 250 acre and growing wildfire.

Fire conditions will be even worse tomorrow.

20 minutes ago, Avdave said:

At the rate Im going, I may be your room mate in the home

The prospect of going to the home just moved from terrible to terrifying.

Just now, Avdave said:

I think we were talking about this month and not October though, hence the confusion. 

Ah. Makes sense. I have to be careful. Confusion at my age can get my ass in the home.

The table didn’t format so click the link and scroll down. Thanks for  giving me a dementia scare!!  Lol

https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/climate/LatestMonthlyClimate.pdf

The lack of rainfall events and the sporadic nature of showers and thunderstorms when they occurred led to widely variable rainfall totals for the month. As shown in Table 2, even though Raleigh was very wet with 7.53 inches for the month (most of that falling from the October 9 event), monthly totals were 2.80 inches at Greensboro (0.30 inches below normal) and only 1.21 inches at Fayetteville (2.02 inches below normal).

Table 2: Monthly Precipitation Statistics
   Site
     Total precipitation (in.)
     Departure from Normal (in.)
     Max Daily Precipitation (in.)
    Greensboro (GSO)
 2.80
 -0.30
 0.82 on 10/7
    Raleigh-Durham (RDU)
    7.53
    +4.16
    4.96 on 10/9
    Fayetteville (FAY)
     1.21
     -2.02
     0.55 on 10/28
 From the cumulative precipitation graph in Figure 7, a large porti

2 hours ago, yotaman said:

Are you sure? I just looked it up and RDU has had only 0.8".

Hmm.  Could be old age but I distinctly remember getting a pop up from a weather program about it. I believe it referenced storms around 10/9 and commented on the large difference.

10 hours ago, yotaman said:

Yep, no rain predicted for at least the next 10 days. Hope that changes soon or I can see severe drought taking shape by end of the year.

Kind of strange that Raleigh has had over 7” this month and I’ve has 0.39” and yet we are both labeled D0.

12 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

Blustery day in the foothills yesterday, wind had that bite to it that lets you know it’s layout December.  Finally ordered a “good” weather station, WeatherFlow Tempest is on the way.  It will be nice to have my own “official” records and not have to guess or rely on the truck thermometer/closest wunderground station for observations.  Though figuring out my internet situation at the future house so I can use it to its full potential is in wait and see mode (about the only downside to living in Haywood is out lack of non-satellite internet options, especially every place I’ve bought a house it seems).

Elon Musk is on the way. But it will cost you.

On 11/24/2021 at 7:57 PM, LakeNormanStormin said:

The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away. 

But the Southeast ridge cometh and this winter will tend to stay.