EastCoast NPZ

Just like last week, another underperformer out here.  Forecasted 2 - 3 got me 1.31".  I forgot how much I disliked these coastal systems where we get 1/2 the precip of the rest of you.

1.16" 

Unless there is some sort of pivot to get precip on a more westerly track, the show is going to be over pretty soon for us out here.  That's an impressive fetch headed north towards DC.

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m surprised at some of the meager rainfall reports. Feels like it’s been pouring for f’ing HOURS.

Low ratios

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve?

With a bullseye imby.  Lol.

Well, it did happen in 2012.

8 hours ago, 87storms said:

So how’s spring training and the cherry blossoms looking?

Cherry blossoms peak on track for Christmas. 

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

The fun part is days start getting longer in less than 2 weeks.

Ugh

I'm good if the rain materializes.  I know that snow exists only in memory in my area.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1735025491352912155?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw
 

his troll game is A+

Warm and dry is far worse than rainy and cold IMO.  I've got 9 months of warm/hot and dry.  Gladly take cold and rain.

Management better make sure there's extra towels and toiletries.

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're kicking the can through 50% of winter. Shocker.

Hopefully, we can sneak in another car-topper in March, right before the first string of 80s.

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Really? Are you being serious?

Yep.  I mean, snow fell for a time, but nothing heavy enough to accumulate anywhere.  Complete white rain.  Even the rain was whimpy; we only got .9"  

As Yukon Cornelius would say, "nuthin."

Flipped back to light snow.  As usual here, lack of rates.

It's great living in the Shenandoah Valley.

Back to rain here.

Snow in stephens city.   But not heavy 

12 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

You HAVE a lake to the west, what you need to do is build a 5K tall mountain chain somewhere east of DC. You could even steal the rocks and dirt from the western mountains to double down lol. 

I'm building it in Warren and Clarke counties.  Then all the NOVA / DC crew will finally feel what it's like in the rain shadow.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

This will be our 2nd 2 plus inch qpf event storm since Nov 20. Next week appears to be the 3rd. Get 4 or 5 more and we may get an epic winter

At the very least end this drought.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

12k NAM goes bonkers. Best run yet. 996 off VA beach lol.

I'm pretty sure NWS has to feed that thing  quarters to run.  

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Putting this here so it doesn’t derail the storm thread. I’m also worried about surface temps. But I’m also frustrated because this SHOULD work. This exact setup has worked many times and yes this early in the season or even earlier!  This isn’t like next weekend when the cold is scoured by the pac vortex. There is reasonable cold to work with.  At least as much cold as were ever going to have in a string nino. The 540 line ends up south of us during the event. Not like next week when the 540 is up near Hudson Bay. That next storm doesn’t bother me if it’s a perfect track rain so much. But if we get this wave to develop like the euro and gfs are showing and it’s just a 37 degree white rain despite sub 540 thicknesses that bothers me a lot.  We already had 2 events up here that I’m pretty confident would have been 1-3” in the past but ended up too warm to accumulate at all even here.  Good news is if true it renders my 1” by whatever date data kinda irrelevant.  Bad news is you have to subtract all those lost marginal events from your expectations for the season. But if this goes that way too it’s just another sign we are definitely losing snow on the margins.  

And frankly our snow climo sucked to begin with so we don’t have a lot of margins to afford to give. 

The vast majority of snow is always on the margin to begin with.  Margins of being barely cold enough.  Rare is the snow falling with temps in the teens.  It's usually 27 - 32F.  Add 3F background warmth to that ... we're cooked.  Literally and figuratively. 

44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Currently battling a bout of strep throat at the moment, so I’ve been out of it. 
 

Biggest story will be the abundance of moisture with the system which will help get some much needed water into the region to curb the drought. Not a bad thing heading into winter. 
 

As for snow, system is very dynamic, but will come down to the low-mid lvl CAA regime as the storm matures and rolls into occlusion phase. I don’t buy the crazy totals the NAM is implying, but there’s a decent chance many of us see some flakes this go around with light accumulations possible across areas along and north of I-70. Details can change over time, but this isn’t a textbook moderate snowfall for our area, but it’s one where people can get on the board. 
 

Idk if I’ll ever have any forecast for this one, so I’ll follow along and chime in when I can. Strep sucks. That is all 

Have 2 kids with it all this week, so i feel for ya.   Hope you're feeling better soon.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in late November 1995.  

 

That one gave me like 5" out here.  That was a really good event.  I suspect this event will be somewhat less exciting.

9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

lol.  I'm not tracking snow for this event.  Absolutely, not worth it.  However, I will be tracking the storm itself as it looks interesting and may provide some needed rainfall.  Might have to bike a trail or two today...I've been slacking on that.

Agreed.  The rainfall is what interests me.  In this pathetic region, rainfall has become as exciting as snow used to be.

Trashcans across the region are hurriedly taking precautions. 

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Perfect.  Just perfect.