cny rider

Is there really any way that we avoid a 50F degree rain storm a week from now?

I don't see how.

About 3 inches overnight, lumpy mashed potato consistency.

We just went above freezing.  Still falling as snow.

Any ski/snow eports yet from the Dacks travelers?
We went to Snow Ridge today.  They had the goods.. Plenty of nice soft powder.

Great ski day.

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

41 dry degrees in Delaware County at 1800'.  Enjoy the storm to our north and west!  

There are going to be big gradients in snowfall across Otsego and Delaware Counties.

I'm in north-central Otsego.  We sat at 32F all night.  Just a fraction above so the cars were wet but the ground is a glacier.

The last couple of ticks SE have made our outlook much brighter.

Steady 31F here for the last 4 hours.

Intermittent rain and drizzle.

It's a skating rink out there.

Unfortunately it looks like I'm one county too far east for the best snow action tomorrow.

I just need the low track to head east by 50 miles!

Rooting for all you guys too of course.

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Whiteface. I’m an intermediate+ skier, any recommendations? 

With fresh snow I predict you will love the Wilmington 
trail.

We had moved into our house in 2001 and planted at least a dozen lilacs.

They had all survived the winter and leafed out beautifully.

We woke that morning to about 4 inches of heavy wet oatmeal consistency snow.

Lilacs took a beating.  About half of them never full recovered.  I think it was because they had just been transplanted the year before.

I can still remember my wife outside in her work clothes trying to gently shake the snow off some of them.  No bueno.

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Nws extended summarizes the winter: 40s, chance of rain/snow showers

The ceiling grade for this winter is now a C-. That's the upside potential with a big turnaround in
February and March that we don't even see on the horizon.

The current grade is D.

F is not out of the question.

If this winter was a kid taking my class I'd advise them to withdraw or audit the class, because the likelihood of an F is extremely high.

25 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Nice. Love Royal. Was everything open?


.

The beginner slope was open,  plus most of the main side.

They had the easiest trail off the main lift closed.....not sure why as there was plenty of snow.

Maybe that's where they held the snowmobile races I saw advertised for Saturday night.   I could see lots of snowmobile tracks as I looked down.

Windham annoyed me going with their new ski pass system a couple of years back.  I don't need more annoying cards to keep track of.

I'll still go but Plattekill is the same distance for us and if there's good natural snow we will take Platty every time.

12 hours ago, snowgeek said:

Windham was awesome today. Lots of soft natural snow bumps. Still some powder stashes left from the big storm. Almost fully open. Hardly anyone there.


.

Looking good.

We went to Royal, which is where we usually start our season each year.

Bountiful natural snow, some of it still ungroomed powder.  A great start to the season.

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First check on area this season....looks like we're in the middle of the pack though skewed a little more toward the lower melt years in the post-2007 environment. We're about 30k above 2017 and about 150k below 2014.

2012's freefall was already well under way...2018 is currently 500k above 2012 at this point. There's still time though....for example, 2007 was still only 25k lower than 2018 at this point, but it went nuclear over the next 10 days losing nearly 1.5 million sq km of area...an average of about 150k per day. Not sure 2018 has the weather forecast in its favor to do anything like that.

 

For anyone new in here, we usually track SSMI/S area in June because it has a much higher correlation to the minimum extent in september than June extent does. The reason is meltponding...the SSMI/S sensors get fooled by meltponding so the area concentration falls. Because of this, it is giving us a measurement of meltponding which is an excellent predictor of minimum ice extent. I'll usually make a prediction of final minimum extent and area based on the area numbers at the end of June. They have worked quite well over the years with a notable exception in 2016.

Thank you for that explanation re:  tracking area in June.