cny rider

6 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Some thoughts. Not a rant.

Onondaga County data shows a 93.4% negative test rate...and they're only testing "sick" people. There are under 300 active cases (377 total). Yet, the Cty Exec is railing on about the potential for as many as 5,000 cases at one time if we don't stay in lockdown or increase it (which he has...albeit largely voluntary).  He is getting the 5,000 number from an Upstate Medical model of virus case progression for various R0 and participation rate values (38% participation gets us 5,000 new daily cases in August..).  He claims we are at 33% participation, don't know how that value us determined, it's likely fuzzy math. I won't even get into the ventilator-need projections.

Yet, hospitals are laying off staff because they're empty (elective treatments postponed). So, in essence, they declare this "a war" (ok I'll buy that), and destroy the economy, but then we downsize the Army.  Something is really amiss here, big picture.

I suspect what's amiss is an over projection of R0 values in lower pop density areas, and an underestimation of lockdown participation rate, coupled with basically a panicked response.  Granted, high pop density areas have been a problem but that's likely due to a preponderance of transmission being between family members in urbanized areas (per info from China and Italy, Spain). How long do we sit here with empty hospitals, masses unemployed, businesses shuttering and low case loads? There are 29 people hospitalized in the county. 29.

The good news is we are trending far below projections of cases (here). At some point soon, they are going to need to relax restrictions and transition to normal if caseload growth remains low. Even at 15 new cases a day that's 1,500-2,000 total cases by August, which sounds like a lot but is manageable, as we are seeing by the empty hospitals. Or, be a slave to models, which means it'll never end because we'll never get "low enough" and they will always point to exponential growth possibilities.

I think in a couple of weeks we will begin to see a lot of friction between the Governer, who is NYC focused, and leaders in the rest of the state as i suspect Cuomo will be much more reluctant to relax any measure of control he has in place.

I disagree with some of your other political posts, but that's for another discussion.

But I agree this can't be one size fits all response for the entire state of NY.

Here in Otsego County we have a trickle of new cases, typically 3-4 per day.  One death so far.  Some stress on our healthcare system but manageable so far.

We're rural and people are distancing well.

But:

Our economy wasn't so hot to begin with, and now it is being obliterated.

We have already committed to having no school through April. 

Our children need to get back to school.

Our adults need to have an opportunity to earn a living.

If case numbers remain low by late April we need a mechanism that gets kids back in school, and at least a partial resumption of economic activity while keeping tight surveillance for flare ups of the virus.

I'm not saying that's what should happen in Queens or Brooklyn but we need to give it a try in rural counties with low case loads.

6 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Some thoughts. Not a rant.

Onondaga County data shows a 93.4% negative test rate...and they're only testing "sick" people. There are under 300 active cases (377 total). Yet, the Cty Exec is railing on about the potential for as many as 5,000 cases at one time if we don't stay in lockdown or increase it (which he has...albeit largely voluntary).  He is getting the 5,000 number from an Upstate Medical model of virus case progression for various R0 and participation rate values (38% participation gets us 5,000 new daily cases in August..).  He claims we are at 33% participation, don't know how that value us determined, it's likely fuzzy math. I won't even get into the ventilator-need projections.

Yet, hospitals are laying off staff because they're empty (elective treatments postponed). So, in essence, they declare this "a war" (ok I'll buy that), and destroy the economy, but then we downsize the Army.  Something is really amiss here, big picture.

I suspect what's amiss is an over projection of R0 values in lower pop density areas, and an underestimation of lockdown participation rate, coupled with basically a panicked response.  Granted, high pop density areas have been a problem but that's likely due to a preponderance of transmission being between family members in urbanized areas (per info from China and Italy, Spain). How long do we sit here with empty hospitals, masses unemployed, businesses shuttering and low case loads? There are 29 people hospitalized in the county. 29.

The good news is we are trending far below projections of cases (here). At some point soon, they are going to need to relax restrictions and transition to normal if caseload growth remains low. Even at 15 new cases a day that's 1,500-2,000 total cases by August, which sounds like a lot but is manageable, as we are seeing by the empty hospitals. Or, be a slave to models, which means it'll never end because we'll never get "low enough" and they will always point to exponential growth possibilities.

I think in a couple of weeks we will begin to see a lot of friction between the Governer, who is NYC focused, and leaders in the rest of the state as i suspect Cuomo will be much more reluctant to relax any measure of control he has in place.

I disagree with some of your other political posts, but that's for another discussion.

But I agree this can't be one size fits all response for the entire state of NY.

Here in Otsego County we have a trickle of new cases, typically 3-4 per day.  One death so far.  Some stress on our healthcare system but manageable so far.

We're rural and people are distancing well.

But:

Our economy wasn't so hot to begin with, and now it is being obliterated.

We have already committed to having no school through April. 

Our children need to get back to school.

Our adults need to have an opportunity to earn a living.

If case numbers remain low by late April we need a mechanism that gets kids back in school, and at least a partial resumption of economic activity while keeping tight surveillance for flare ups of the virus.

I'm not saying that's what should happen in Queens or Brooklyn but we need to give it a try in rural counties with low case loads.

6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That makes the death rate much lower. If it can be said that for every 1 person showing symptoms theres 1 that's not. That means the 256k showing symptoms one could deduce there are 250k more positive but asymptomatic. That would take the death rate in the US to around 1%.

I think it's important to remember those without symptoms haven't had symptoms yet.

LEt's see what happens in the next few weeks with that group before drawing conclusions.

11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seriously?? I don't get benefits. I don't get the frickin summer off. I don't work a 9 to 5 job. I didn't take a position that pays well.  If you saw my post earlier, I don't even get health insurance.....and you know why I chose this position??? Because I love teaching kids and influencing them. I barely get paid to answer emails and phone calls and facetime chats and from 8 am to 10 pm....I could go on and on. You people on your high horses who think you know what teaching is like.....

Get off my flpping back...because I LOVE my job. I am walking alongside MANY families that are struggling with what to do. Parents who are nurses, policemen, etc..... Don't fricken judge me when you aren't even walking in my shoes. I didn't say I had it any worse. 

Once again, I don't get any benefits...none...and again...I LOVE my job. I just see the stress of all my students and their families. And no, 10 weeks of summer DON'T make up for all the UNPAID hours I work during evenings and weekends throughout the year.

But....you know what....I teach only because I care only about myself...isn't that why all teachers teach??? Puh lease.

Step off.

I'm sorry.....it sounds like you are closer to volunteering at this point than working in a professional position.

We thank you for your service.

One good thing about volunteering is you can decide to do as much of it or as little of it as you like.  If it's stressing you out too much at current levels perhaps a reduction in workload is in order.

4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Sooooo, got the news that New York State is telling schools to "forget the planned Spring Break" and continue education. To do that on the WEEK OF the expected break is disrespectful and maddening. I love my students...but this break was meant to be a MENTAL and EMOTIONAL break for teachers and students. My school has been working hard in educating our students virtually up to the start of break.

I feel this is just the state pushing teachers to have to keep students entertained and supplied for when there are some things PARENTS should be responsible for.

END RANT.

Step up, my man.

My kids parents both work in heath care.

We are busting our asses, literally risking our lives every day now to better and possibly save the lives of others.

It's not easy.....and having our kids home from school unexpectedly isn't making it any easier.

And you're bitching about having to work, as in actually performing the job you get paid for?  For an entire extra week? In a time of crisis like this, you're bitching about having to work and actually earn your pay and benefits?  Is the 10 weeks off you have coming up this summer not enough?  Do you not see the plight of so many others around you who got laid off and have no pay, and no benefits coming in?

How tone deaf can you be?

Abbott is putting out a new test that will detect COVID infection in minutes.

It will be available in early April.

Imagine how different the course of this disaster would have been in America if we had that test a month ago.

If we had a pandemic response team at the NSC for example, or merely even a competent President who listened to briefings on what was happening in January and had started working with industry to get PPE stockpiled, and these rapid tests developed.

We would have been testing and rapidly isolating individual cases and outbreaks instead of watching thousands of Americans die as we are now.

Ripping snow out there.

We didn't have a day like this from before Christmas until the end of January......

45 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I'm at a crossroads. Do I cancel and wait for weeks/months (possibly getting an infection in my mouth) or risk it???

Go to the dentist if you can find one that is working.

You are at significant risk of getting an infection in your mouth but almost no risk of getting corona at the dentist's office.

The risk is high for the dentist because they have people breathing and aerosolizing fluids in their face all day long.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Coronavirus cases by county, NY.. Hasn't been updated yet today..

Still no confirmed cases in Oswego county, hoping to keep it that way.. Rural living has its advantages, like limited human contact lol

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/county-county-breakdown-positive-cases

Those numbers are worthless.

I work in health care.  We can't test people because we don't have availability of the testing materials.

We are flying blind.

6 hours ago, WNash said:

They bought themselves a sure thing. The Bills couldn’t afford another Sammy Watkins type pick.

Yeah I'm good with this trade.

Diggs is as good as anyone you could have picked at WR, and he's good right now.

Thinksnow is also right.  If they can't coach the stupid out of Josh, then nothing else will matter.

This is a really big year coming up.  If Josh doesn't get his head screwed on straight it will be time to move on and draft another QB.

10 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

I have 1 kid and my fiancé is 27 weeks pregnant. I’m terrified of bringing it home to her with all the unknowns that it can cause newborn babies. It has been confirmed in Europe that it can be transmitted in the womb to the baby and women who get it and have high fevers may have to give birth early which their lungs aren’t even fully developed at 27 weeks, then add on a serious respiratory illness such as corona virus to an already underdeveloped set of lungs and it’s not good news. My job is considered an “essential” federal employee so the only way I get off is if I contract the virus and am mandatorily quarantined from it. I already talked to the Union who basically told me to do what I have to do but there’s no garuntee I won’t be let go if I voluntarily quarantine to try and protect my family from getting it. Not to sound ignorant but if I was single or didn’t have a kid under 1 and another one almost here I wouldn’t be so scared but to be honest right now I’m honestly terrified and freaking out and don’t know what to do. This is a situation I’m sure many of us could never have even imagined, I know I sure never could have and I’m praying somehow we all make it through but this is quickly turning into a nightmare. 

This is a huge societal issue and I don't see it being addressed nearly enough.

The biggest source of good paying jobs in my area is health care.

The demands for work hours from doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists and everyone else in the hospital is skyrocketing.

And at the same time we are telling them their kids aren't going to school for a month......

So how exactly does this work?  You're an ICU nurse with a 6 year old and an 8 year old unexpectedly at home and you're supposed to go work 12 hour shifts.......What gives?
 

2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Shit, the whole Country of N Korea didnt have one confirmed case while S Korea had close to 7000 so that's bizarre. My first Pandemic, and hopefully my last!!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah this would be the fake news.....

Almost a whole inch here in Otsego County.

Summer can't come soon enough.

47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Tug still looks good. If it can survive today should be ok? I think. We both picked a crap weekend to go. Last weekend would’ve been perfect. Oh well. Might get a little fresh stuff but looks like western Dacks get downsloped 

I think coverage will mostly be OK.

But it's not going to be what I hope for in early March when there's usually great base plus some fresh.

I think mentally I'm just checking out too.  I just walked outside in a shirt and pants with no coat and it felt great.

Checking out Ottawa as an alternative to the ADK's this weekend.

Rideau Canal is already closed for skating for the year!

19 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Next opportunity looks to be Friday into Saturday. March is always good for a surprise or two. Had 2” fresh last night. 
Im headed to the Dacks next weekend for winter fun. Hope all the snow isn’t gone! 

We have a long weekend too, but I haven't made reservations because we always seem to get burned when we make winter sports plans too far ahead.

I'm still debating Daks vs. Greens vs. just stay home if it rains a few times this week then all re-freezes into glacier for next weekend without fresh snow on top.

Stay tuned I guess.....

38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Forecast was for 3-7” overnight, got about an inch. What a joke. They closed schools for this? Lmfao. This is Buffalo,NY. What a bunch of wussies society has become. Good call Dave from Roc who said this storm was gonna be weak sauce synoptically for WNY. So ready for spring it’s not even funny. 

You don’t have long to wait for spring......check out the temps for next week.

Snow Ridge will have some great skiing this weekend!

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

 

Well that sure makes this year's dominant storm track obvious!

Lexi again.....

Great ski conditions in the fresh before it went above freezing in the afternoon.

Me and Lexi our 8 month old Golden pup....

IMG_1763.HEIC

Dog had to go pee @0300.

Took her out, had 2-3 inches of wet snow on the ground, was lightly drizzling and I figured we were in a dry slot with more snow to come.

Woke up this morning, saw my footprints unchanged from 0300. No new snow.

Total bust.

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ask the euro...it is not on the same page, at all, as the GFS. In fact a 50 mile shift south would look just like a similar track to this event. And looking beyond that it has another southern storm lifting from the gulf. It tells the GFS to hold my beer.

I hope you're right but even on the Euro that SE ridge looks mighty stout.......going to be hard to overcome that.

Is there really any way that we avoid a 50F degree rain storm a week from now?

I don't see how.

About 3 inches overnight, lumpy mashed potato consistency.

We just went above freezing.  Still falling as snow.