wxmanmitch

Snow now after wasting away as freezing rain and sleet for about 2 hours. 

Flakes are aggregating as they fall through that warm layer aloft, but it has eroded to the point where they can now survive the trip through it, for now anyway.

I expect it to flip back to ZRPL soon based on the dual pol CCs. Maybe the backside tomorrow will overachieve. Sometimes these upper low and inverted trough deals can surprise, and the ratios should be in our favor too.

Things remain painfully unburied for this time of year with only a crusty inch on the ground with a pixie dust coating covering it, but looking back at the past 5 years of snowfall data (I moved here in March 2018, right before that epic stretch), this winter has had the same general tenor of the past several, albeit warmer. 

We had a significant pre Xmas snowstorm in all of these winters, except 2021-22, only to have it wiped out by a torch in the Xmas to mid January timeframe followed by a recovery from late January through February primarily resulting from SWFE type events. February 2022 was terrible and we lost our winter pack by late month, only to regain a temporary pack in March. 2020 had a mega January torch only to recover to a decent 25-30" depth my mid February so there's hope. 

Looking forward we may recover over the next two weeks and beyond with a classic SWFE gradient pattern that favors areas north of the Pike. Jackson, NH and Newry, ME look like good places to be in this upcoming pattern. It's somewhat borderline here in S VT, but hopefully we can cash in on at least some of them on the eastern slope. I'll gladly take a series of 3-5" or 6-8" type events, even if they contain some taint. The past few weeks have been nothing short of a disaster...

The late week SWFE coming may very be too warm in the midlevels for much more than some bookend snows here, but early next week and beyond may be better.

Snowfall totals through 1/15 and season totals:

2022-23: 45.7" ???

2021-22: 39.8" 117.9"

2020-21: 50.1" 137.8"

2019-20: 59.2" 143.5"

2018-19: 68.9" 149.8"

4" of backside snow here, so my depth is pretty much right where I started at 14". Amazing to have 7.6" from a storm and have no net gain. No loss either...

Saw a report of 7" in Dalton, MA on Twitter which has been under that area of enhanced echoes for a while now. Definitely some convergence and SW flow upslope down in the Berkshires. 

3.6" final on the front end before flipping to a mix of freezing rain and ice pellets. 31° F. Just did a midnight snow blow of the driveway to remove the snow before it turns to glop and then a glacier...

Pounding snow, +SN. Good growth too. Probably 1.5-2" down so far, 28° F.

Light snow has begun here, 26° F. 18z meso models have mysteriously trended warmer (with the NAMs the most so), which is in opposition to radar and surface obs so I'm tossing and going with the 12z suite, which had 4-6" here on the front end with maybe another 1-2" on the back.

19" on 1.4" liquid here. Nice little snowstorm, but nothing we can't handle around these parts. Depth OTG is ~21". 

12.5" here with 0.84" liquid equivalent. Kind of surprised at how high the SLR is. Just light snow now, but it should increase a bit again soon as the radar appears to be filling in more to my south and west, 29° F.

8.7" on the board as of 20 minutes ago. Snow intensity varying between light and moderate. Dry, but dense snow up here. 27° F.

Heavy snow, 30° F. Good snow growth so this is easily 1"+ per hour stuff. I'll check back in the morning and let you know where I'm at.

And it has begun. Some low level easterly flow upslope snow already falling out ahead of the synoptic stuff that has yet to arrive from the southwest. Quite breezy. 29° F.

Expecting a solid 20"+ dump out of this, maybe 25"+. 

4.2" new snow here. Just missed the heaviest stuff to my S and SW where 8-8.5" fell in parts of the Berkshires. Although there wasn't much wind, I think there was a little upslope assist in that area with the SW flow in the mid levels. A decent little event that serves as a nice appetizer for what could be a very high ceiling snow event here late in the week.

1.3" so far on .09" liquid, 21° F. Heavier snow has been trying all afternoon to push in from the SW, but keeps weakening as it pushes NE. 

Someone in the I-90 corridor from Albany into the southern Berkshires pulls a 6-8" out of this, while I probably finish with 2.5-3". 

Looking forward to what could be a good dump here on Friday, but whether it's a glorified SWFE that dumps 6-10", 8-12" or a slow moving nor'easter that dumps 18-24"+ is still very much up in the air right now. Regardless, I think this is more of an interior elevation threat given marginal temperatures and low that may very well cut inland across SNE.

8 hours ago, dmcginvt said:

How highly anomalous is this.  I have lived in Lamoillle County or Washington County since 87.  I dont recall us being this bare in a long time.  But i also feel like it has happened before.  Anyone got records to share?   Worst december ever records?

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Dec 2015. Wall to wall furnace with almost zero snow.  

 

December 2006 was awful too. El Niño winter with pretty much nothing until early February '07. Then NNE made up a lot of ground in the second half that year starting with the Valentine's Day storm.

D+, final snowfall total 117.9".

It was just barely good enough not be a total dead ratter, but it was a solidly subpar winter with both below normal snowfall and snowpack retention. Max depth was only 18-19" in January after the MLK weekend storm. 

A couple of good 18"+ storms would've gotten me to near average, but luck was not on my side with year. There were lots of light to moderate snows from fast moving clippers and SWFEs, but the pattern was generally hostile for nor'easters except for the 1/29 storm that I was only fringed by. Then there was that stalled front storm a week later that brought a general 12-18" just to the north and I had nothing but 32-33° F and rain that ended as flurries. That was a rough week. 

The winter made a modest late recovery in March after losing most of my pack in late February, but this is not Mt. Mansfield, so it was gone by the end of the month and April saw only a few light to moderate transient snows. Hopefully next winter delivers big!

27 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Hasn't been much of the Woodford Cloud this winter, but this event delivered. There also was that steamer that I dont think was totally upslope driven that drove up totals too I think, maybe just enhanced totals even a bit more than just normal upslope.

I was under that streamer for a couple of hours after the dynamic snow pulled out. Not sure what caused it, but I don't think it was purely lake effect. Those streamers definitely enhance as they upslope through here, regardless of their cause. 

The progressive flow this winter hasn't been good for the "Woodford cloud". Typically you want big closed lows off to the northeast that wrap around moisture and disturbances for a few days to get the big totals and this is much more likely to occur with a decent -NAO pattern.

11.3" storm total with still some upslope -SN ongoing. I had about 4" from the synoptic part of the storm, but the backside with it's upslope and streamers has definitely overachieved. Pure fluff except the synoptic stuff underneath which is denser, but still dry. 

That said, I've officially passed the 100" for the season with 102.2" as of now. It's been a frustrating winter locally, but it has at least earned a passing grade... 

Looks like ~4" of fluff here so far. I wasn't expecting more than 2-3" and we have plenty to go. Maybe I can pull a 6-8"?

2.27" of wasted precipitation from this storm, most of it rain. I had heavy rain and 31.5-32.0° F Thursday night so it didn't accrete at all, which was a good thing or else I would've likely had issues with tree damage, power and telecom. I had about 1/10" of ice accretion yesterday morning after the precipitation lessened and temperatures dropped into the 20s. It was topped off with 0.7" of snow/sleet.

This was not a CAD event as it had slowly advancing cold from the N and NW as opposed to retreating cold air left behind by a cold high sliding east. My location is often one of the last to shed cold around here in such events, but I was one of the last to get cold this go around, saving me from the worst of the ZR. The west slope and Hudson Valley definitely got it worse.

Two big swings and misses this past week. It's been a brutal week and a lackluster winter season with only that one mediocre synoptic storm on MLK Day. Season snow total at a paltry 61.3", I'd guess average to date should be 95-100".

1.7" of arctic pixie dust here, 0.16" liquid equivalent, -2° F. Just another day at 2K+ in Vermont where we never get big snowstorms anymore...

12.3" of snow with 1.27" LE as of 4 pm. Expecting another 2-3" on the backside overnight.

8.3" of super dense snow as of 9 am, but we've probably added a half inch or an inch since then. I haven't melted it down yet, but I bet there's at least an inch to an inch and a quarter in this stuff.

There are waves of snow that range between light and heavy. Snow growth is better now than at any other point during this storm as we have CAA aloft from the south. Most of the storm has featured a fine, rimey snow very reminiscent of a SWFE. No sleet or rain whatsoever. 29° F with a brightening sky at the moment.

Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

6 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

Sure friggin hope so! Out of curiosity, what is your snowfall YTD? Friends of ours just got a place nearby. 

39.8"