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Jns2183

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Everything posted by Jns2183

  1. Jns2183
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  2. Jns2183
    Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. .
  3. Jns2183
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  4. Jns2183
    Take a look at the HREF ensemble mean. Not many times you see mean qpf >6” over a huge area. If that isn’t a massive signal I don’t know what is .
  5. Jns2183
    Yeah that is not good for Susquehanna River .
  6. Jns2183
    You might have a rough day
  7. Jns2183
    The question I have is are these totals more likely to be under or over estimated. I’m not sure given it being a tropical system .
  8. Jns2183
    Look where the rain has broken out this morning and look at current frontal position. .
  9. Jns2183
    We may be headed towards a high risk flooding day .
  10. Jns2183
    Euro .
  11. Jns2183
    Boats please .
  12. Jns2183
    I was skeptical until every model I saw seemed to be zero in on that stationary front over us And I’m assuming some enhanced lift from something else. Looking at simulated radar Wednesday night is going to be bad. Really bad if some hi res models are correct. Lee’s flooding hit during the day. I fear a nighttime massive flood event. .
  13. Jns2183
    GFS same .
  14. Jns2183
    Canadian same .
  15. Jns2183
    How often does the ukmet throw out 6”-8” rain totals? .
  16. Jns2183
    Harrisburg all time September daily rainfall record set during Lee is 7.17”. I thought I was going bout on a limb earlier in the week comparing this to Lee. I don’t even know anymore, but if Harrisburg gets 9”+ in 24 hours it’s going to be real bad. .
  17. Jns2183
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  18. Jns2183
    We need to add wind also so when candersan gets a a 43mph guest that takes a shingle and downs every tree within a half mile after 8” of Rain he can claim total victory while losing power for 2 days. .
  19. Jns2183
    Have Pittsburgh meteorologists. 5.9” vs 0.70”. Harrisburg somehow gets slammed every model, doesn’t matter which probably is a pretty strong signal for trouble. .
  20. Jns2183
    Long range HRRR radar and qpf. God have mercy. At 48 hours 0Z .
  21. Jns2183
    Who isn’t prone to flooding here ? .
  22. Jns2183
    Can anyone think of a time when a stalled frontal boundary over us meets tropical moisture that hasn’t devolved into an epic disaster for at least some portions of our area? I’d tackle it like bubbler and prepare for Lee meets Ivan part 2 .
  23. Jns2183
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  24. Jns2183
    I hope some interviews the harbor master will that recorded the 149mph sustained winds with guest to 179mph from his ship’s instrument. This has to be the best verifiable high end CAT 4 ever and I suspect it will be upgraded on analysis. As soon as it started RI at the rate o f Wilma I knew she would be special .
  25. Jns2183
    5”-7” will send all the tributaries to at least moderate flood stage. Everything seems to be picking up on a through laying right over us for enhancement. Throw in a huge easterly fetch banging into that and mountains along with the core passing just south and the potential is there for areas to rival Lee .
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