Jns2183

Here's some maps of this area's most famous cold sleet storm, because if it's going to sleet it's going to do so into some cold surface air Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I wish for a twitter battle between him and the WPC Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If anything this reminds me of December 2009 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I don't think you're going to know till within 24 hours with how models have been. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

@MAG5035 please correct me if I'm mistaken. I could totally be off on a wrong track and have no idea. I'd rather be wrong and learn than keep spouting crap. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think this storm is partly here due to la Nina breaking down. That increases volitilty significantly which is what we want for a big storm. The down side is the northern trend all winter has been due in part to the la Nina. I also feel, and I believe, studies have panned at that the northern trend that models do well above 50/50, isn't do so much to the teleconnection as it is data availability and it being much more available at lower latitude. If anything the prudent choice of action would be to see which models have had the better accuracy with high pressure placements at higher latitude both all winter and during the past month as that seems to be the hinge this storms depends upon Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Over/under on. 5 tweets this week? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What's the Lancaster guy saying? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Are those by days of snow individually or do you compress multiple days to one storm. If you want I can send you how I did Harrisburg as well as raw data going back to 1890 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At day 5 compared to day about 60-70% of the low mean pressure has come north with a mean distance of 100 miles Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This winter like most winters I would prefer to be on the northern fringe until 36-48 hours beforehand. This winter it's gone down to 12-24 hours. Most of our huge storms have followed the same pattern. Tonight and tomorrow I'll see what I can dig into regarding forcast days in advance and north trends just to confirm it isn't confirmation basis. The other interesting feature I glanced at was that the swing from bad luck to good luck seemed more often than not to be a pretty big storm. I want to put some quantitative numbers to that though. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Best position since 2016 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I remember laughing out loud when after all the damn hours I spent collecting daily data for NAO, PNA, AO, GBI, MJO, a couple other indicies going back to 1950 and running all the multivariate time lag correlations that at most those indicies explained roughly 6% of snowfall variance in our area. Further, that if I could have a super computer that held infinite historical data it would be a miracle if I approached 40%. So much of our storms come down frankly to dumb luck and pulling the slot machine handle. That said it isn't a slot machine, and our luck the past 5 years has rivaled the 1950s for worst luck ever. Eventually the luck will change. This weekend is as good as time for it to change as any I've seen. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Apparently the neighbors who got popped had a multi year fued. I remember reading up on it and it was so ridiculous I was in shock nothing happened sooner. I believe it's worth stressing the backstory here, else people believe they are at risk from getting it from any of there neighbors at any time. Not that they deserved this, just that your chance of being gunned down by neighbor are in someway usually proportional to your behavior over years. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I made a big one and he dove in head first before turning around with just his head sticking out and stayed in that position content for the next ten minutes Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Spent an hour outside with him happy as can be Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Any chance you have the original uncompressed images for the first 5 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have close to 3" of snow. I also picked up this little guy yesterday. This morning he was scared of snow until he got in it. Then immediately went crazy with delight Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Thought people might enjoy this The temperature is based on recorded max temperature for day and the percentage is out of all the days preceiptitation was measured Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Final part Haha, I spent way too long on this to not put forth my pet theory regarding the 1960s. The absolute insane return periods for "luck" and just plain actual snow and it's correlation to some events has not been studied super well. I guess this is the sacrifice needed for us to get the winters we pray for. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Part 2 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have a super long post that will take a few separate post. The snowfall in Harrisburg is driven by a combination of global atmospheric patterns and what we call "Timing Luck"—the localized, chaotic meeting of moisture and cold air that large-scale indices like the NAO and PNA cannot predict. Our analysis identifies "Luck" as the residual snowfall surplus or deficit left over after accounting for these global drivers. While atmospheric patterns explain about 6–9% of the variability, the rest comes down to whether individual storms happen to "phase" correctly over our region. The 1960s (1961–1970) stand out as a once-in-a-millennium statistical outlier where Harrisburg received a massive +110-inch "luck" surplus, effectively gaining nearly one-third of its total snowfall through perfect timing rather than just favorable global setups. In contrast, the current period from 2021 to 2025 has been characterized by a deep "luck deficit," rivaling the extreme snow droughts of the 1950s. Even when atmospheric indices are neutral or slightly favorable, we are currently underperforming our "expected" snowfall by over 5 inches per year. Our modeling shows that while the 1960s were a ~1,700-year fluke of extreme overperformance, the current deficit represents a significant run of "bad luck" where storm tracks have consistently avoided the Susquehanna Valley. For those interested in the deep-dive statistics, including the return periods for our luckiest years (1961, 1996) and unluckiest years (1980, 1998, 2023), please see the attached images for the full distribution and decade-by-decade breakdown. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Huge lighting bolt few minutes ago Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The wind only allowed me a couple hours of sleep last night after tree crashed in neighbors yard so I made a pot of coffee and made great progress on my project. I have daily indicies values for NAO, AO, PNA, GBI, ENSO, SO, MJO for 1950-2025 that all have been standardized for 1950-2000 period. The last 3 on the list took forever due to having calculated them from raw data. Once I found NOAA data documentation it was manageable. I also have Harrisburg raw data from 12/1/1899 to present. I standardized it over same period while smoothing according to NWS policy. I just started running ungodly statistical tests involving lagging correlations but the main point here is I have lost a lot of faith in MU. So much of the final outcome here is basically down to timing luck and mesodynamics but that still doesn't take away from teleconnection stacking the deck some going through his Twitter history he doesn't like to put his cards on the table until the time to do so is way over, nor does he explain in a logical coherent manner before the fact why he thinks what he says. It's alwAys later using post fact rationalization using data, events, facts that one arent really related to teleconnection. He's basically dipping into that mesodynamics, timings, whatever else whitch brew to let his prejudice be known. Because here is the kicker. He doesn't treat other months of the year anywhere like he does winter. Probably lowering .confidence overall in him for winter months by 25%. Just because our luck factor, climatology speaking with snow is poor, isn't a reason to hide behind it. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Dual pol radar velocity measurements via radarscope using distance radius tool which helpfully includes beam height with distance with passing line Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk