Jns2183

I believe the person took it with a drone Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Massive ice jam up in Luzerne county on the Susquehanna. If that thing goes quickly there may be some issues. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We still have a quite a few freezes until they are back. That is also the only positive of a late freeze. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

As we wake up this foggy morning we can at least be thankful it's not the fog from way back in 1940 in which Harrisburg reported fog so thick it spent 29 hours with visibility a quarter mile or below. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think that is the only way to get a wsw type storm. But it's risky. I think I'd be happy with a 2"-4" if it was drama free. What ever it ends up being I'm going with whatever the RRFS says is going to happen. I feel it's skill level around here as been unparalleled by any other model. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict something similar will happen in Pennsylvania in the next 10:years. Now it may be a pure true central storm, in which case I'm chasing, but it's coming. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I've downloaded the complete set of all observation records in Pennsylvania up until 1925. 213 unique stations at one point contributed to this treasure trove. It's been fascinating just running the first bit of data analysis on them. Feels like I'm looking at an alien landscape. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Tomorrow I do 1915 which not only is the opening salvo in the true reign of April Blizzards, as it's followed up with the 1919, the king of them all in 1924, and the one spoken at length yesterday in 1927; but it also had a cut off that would make me weep. 10" to nothing in 20 miles. 70 miles between 20" and nothing. And researching these I have discovered that they seem to come and bundles and then nothing at all for decades and we are certainly due Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

My first post of maybe several in coming days if people enjoy it. These are about true rarity in these parts that used to be a whole lot less rare. April Blizzards This is a deep dive into the "April Surprise" of 1894, a legendary late-season monster that paralyzed Pennsylvania just as the state was beginning to bloom. [emoji2518] 1894: A World, Nation, and State in Flux In April 1894, the world was a study in contrasts. Globally, the Panic of 1893 was still casting a long economic shadow, leading to significant labor unrest. In the United States, "Coxey’s Army"—the first significant popular protest march on Washington, D.C.—was tramping through the mud of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, demanding jobs just as this blizzard struck. Locally, Pennsylvania was the industrial heart of the nation; the steel mills of Pittsburgh were roaring, and the coal mines of the Anthracite region were fueling the Gilded Age. Culturally, the 24th President, Grover Cleveland, was in office, and the first ever Stanley Cup championship had just been played weeks prior. Little did Pennsylvanians know that a "Second Winter" was about to descend with historic fury. [emoji3587] The Winter 1893-94 Lead-Up: February’s Peak The winter of 1893–94 wasn't a consistent "ice box" year; rather, it was a season of extreme pulses. The early winter was relatively quiet, but February 1894 became the soul of the season. February saw a staggering 1,401.8" of station-summed snowfall across the state network—nearly triple the amount seen in January. The coldest day occurred on February 25, when the statewide average minimum temperature plummeted to -1.3°F. However, as March arrived, the "spring flip" was aggressive. Temperatures surged into the mid-50s, the snow pack vanished, and by early April, fruit trees were budding and farmers were eyeing their fields. The atmosphere was primed for a clash of seasons. [emoji408] Monthly Statistical Summary (Pre-Blizzard) | Month | Stations Reporting | Snow Sum | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1893-11 | 53 | 48.0" | 47.8°F | 32.6°F | | 1893-12 | 56 | 255.7" | 40.7°F | 24.6°F | | 1894-01 | 82 | 472.9" | 40.7°F | 25.4°F | | 1894-02 | 82 | 1401.8" | 36.7°F | 18.8°F | | 1894-03 | 82 | 97.1" | 54.0°F | 32.6°F | | 1894-04 (1–9) | 83 | 100.6" | 49.4°F | 32.0°F | [emoji302] The "April Bomb": April 10–12, 1894 The blizzard was not a classic "Arctic Blast" but rather a dynamically forced powerhouse. On April 10, a deepening low-pressure system began drawing massive amounts of moisture from the Atlantic, crashing it into a marginal but stubborn cold air mass draped over the interior of Pennsylvania. While Philadelphia saw mostly a cold, driving rain (only 0.5" snow) and Pittsburgh remained on the "warm" side with 0.0", the Central Ridge-Valley and Susquehanna Valley became the "Jackpot Zone." On April 11, the storm reached its peak, with 54 stations reporting snow and a statewide station-sum of 411.4" in a single 24-hour window. [emoji2783] The 9-Day Timeline (The Setup, The Event, The Melt) | Date | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin | Stations w/ Snow | Max Single-Station Snow | |---|---|---|---|---| | Apr 7 (Pre) | 41.8°F | 29.7°F | 23 | 6.5" | | Apr 10 (Start) | 41.9°F | 31.1°F | 38 | 10.0" | | Apr 11 (Peak) | 36.7°F | 30.0°F | 54 | 28.0" | | Apr 12 (End) | 43.6°F | 31.6°F | 18 | 4.0" | | Apr 15 (Melt) | 63.0°F | 32.5°F | 0 | 0.0" | [emoji625] Geographic Winners and Losers The 1894 blizzard was a masterclass in "mesoscale banding." While the big cities on either end of the state (Philly and Pittsburgh) saw very little, the interior was buried. Selinsgrove recorded a mind-boggling 28.0" on April 11 alone. State College was a consistent winner throughout the event, recording 18" over two days. This storm was a "wet" snow, meaning the weight on the newly budding trees and telegraph lines was catastrophic, causing widespread communication blackouts across the Susquehanna Valley. [emoji471] Top Station Totals (April 11 Peak) * Selinsgrove 2 S: 28.0" * Le Roy: 22.0" * Lewisburg: 20.0" * Coatesville: 18.5" * Lebanon: 17.5" * Harrisburg: 13.0" [emoji2410] The Aftermath: The Great Disappearing Act As quickly as the winter monster arrived, it vanished. By April 13, the sun came out and temperatures began to climb. By April 15, the statewide average maximum temperature hit 63°F, sending the massive snowpack into a rapid melt. This led to localized flooding as the heavy, wet "April White" turned into "April Water." For those living through it, the 1894 blizzard was a reminder that in Pennsylvania, winter is never truly dead until May. [emoji2793] Visualizations I am generating a snowfall map of the hardest-hit locations and a commemorative "Weather Lore" infographic for the board. Here is the detailed write-up for your weather message board, formatted for easy copy-and-paste. [emoji2518] 1894: A World, Nation, and State in Flux The spring of 1894 arrived at a pivotal moment in history. Globally, the Panic of 1893 was still casting a long economic shadow, fueling labor unrest and leading to the historic march of "Coxey’s Army" toward Washington, D.C. In Pennsylvania, the Gilded Age was in full swing; steel mills and coal mines were the engines of the nation, and Grover Cleveland sat in the White House. While the state was looking forward to the regrowth of spring, a "Second Winter" was quietly gathering strength in the atmosphere. [emoji3587] The Winter 1893–94 Lead-Up: February’s Peak The 1893–94 season was one of extremes rather than consistency. After a quiet start, February 1894 became the heart of the winter, delivering a staggering 1,401.8" of station-summed snowfall across Pennsylvania—nearly triple the volume of January. The season’s arctic peak occurred on February 25, with a statewide average low of -1.3°F. However, March brought a violent "spring flip," with average highs surging into the mid-50s and the snowpack rapidly vanishing. By early April, fruit trees were budding, setting the stage for a catastrophic clash of air masses. [emoji408] Monthly Statistical Summary (Pre-Blizzard) | Month | Stations | Snow Sum | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin ||-------------------|----------|----------|-----------|-----------|| 1893-11 | 53 | 48.0" | 47.8°F | 32.6°F || 1893-12 | 56 | 255.7" | 40.7°F | 24.6°F || 1894-01 | 82 | 472.9" | 40.7°F | 25.4°F || 1894-02 | 82 | 1401.8" | 36.7°F | 18.8°F || 1894-03 | 82 | 97.1" | 54.0°F | 32.6°F || 1894-04 (1–9) | 83 | 100.6" | 49.4°F | 32.0°F | [emoji302] The "April Bomb": April 10–12, 1894 The blizzard was a dynamically forced powerhouse rather than a classic arctic blast. On April 10, a deepening low-pressure system tapped into Atlantic moisture and collided with a stubborn cold air mass over the interior. While Philadelphia saw mostly cold rain and Pittsburgh stayed on the warm side of the track, the Central Ridge-Valley and Susquehanna Valley were decimated. On April 11, the storm peaked with 54 stations reporting snow and a single-day station-sum of 411.4". Because this was a heavy, wet "heart attack" snow, it caused massive damage to budding trees and telegraph lines. [emoji2783] The 9-Day Timeline (Setup, Event, and Melt) | Date | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin | Stations w/ Snow | Max Single Snow ||---------------|-----------|-----------|------------------|-----------------|| Apr 7 (Pre) | 41.8°F | 29.7°F | 23 | 6.5" || Apr 10 (Start)| 41.9°F | 31.1°F | 38 | 10.0" || Apr 11 (Peak) | 36.7°F | 30.0°F | 54 | 28.0" || Apr 12 (End) | 43.6°F | 31.6°F | 18 | 4.0" || Apr 15 (Melt) | 63.0°F | 32.5°F | 0 | 0.0" | [emoji625] Geographic Winners and Losers The 1894 event was defined by mesoscale banding. Selinsgrove recorded a legendary 28.0" on April 11 alone, while State College and Harrisburg both saw heavy interior accumulation. Conversely, the "big anchors" on the state's edges missed out on the true blizzard conditions. Top Daily Snowfall (April 11): * Selinsgrove 2 S: 28.0" * Le Roy: 22.0" * Lewisburg: 20.0" * Coatesville: 18.5" * Harrisburg: 13.0" * State College: 13.0" [emoji2410] The Aftermath: The Great Disappearing Act As quickly as the winter monster arrived, it vanished. By April 13, the sun emerged, and by April 15, the statewide average high hit 63°F. The massive, moisture-laden snowpack melted rapidly, leading to localized flooding and turning the "April White" into "April Water" in a matter of hours. For Pennsylvanians of the 1890s, it was a stark reminder that winter is never truly dead until May. [emoji2793] Visualization: The Jackpot Map The map below highlights the "Interior Jackpot" where the storm core centered, showing the stark contrast between the buried central valleys and the relatively dry urban anchors. [emoji439] 1894 BLIZZARD INFOGRAPHIC > THE APRIL BOMB AT A GLANCE > * The Peak Day: April 11, 1894 > * Biggest Winner: Selinsgrove (28 inches in 24 hours) > * The "Flip": 36°F (Blizzard) [emoji3591] 63°F (Spring Melt) in 4 days. > * The Damage: Thousands of budding fruit trees destroyed; telegraph lines snapped across the Susquehanna. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It was before my time but does anyone here have a clear memory of the summer of 1982? SUMMER 1982 DAILY WEATHER LOG (HARRISBURG, PA) JUNE 1982 Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp -------------------------------- 06/01 | 73 | 63 | 68.0 | 2.36 06/02 | 75 | 55 | 65.0 | 0.00 06/03 | 66 | 52 | 59.0 | 0.74 06/04 | 65 | 56 | 60.5 | 0.02 06/05 | 60 | 56 | 58.0 | 1.18 06/06 | 64 | 55 | 59.5 | 0.00 06/07 | 75 | 54 | 64.5 | 0.00 06/08 | 73 | 53 | 63.0 | 0.00 06/09 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00 06/10 | 62 | 55 | 58.5 | 0.16 06/11 | 63 | 58 | 60.5 | 0.26 06/12 | 62 | 53 | 57.5 | 0.19 06/13 | 54 | 50 | 52.0 | 1.47 06/14 | 76 | 51 | 63.5 | 0.00 06/15 | 81 | 51 | 66.0 | 0.00 06/16 | 83 | 65 | 74.0 | 1.48 06/17 | 78 | 64 | 71.0 | 0.00 06/18 | 79 | 57 | 68.0 | 0.00 06/19 | 81 | 59 | 70.0 | 0.00 06/20 | 73 | 54 | 63.5 | 0.00 06/21 | 80 | 57 | 68.5 | 0.00 06/22 | 77 | 55 | 66.0 | 0.04 06/23 | 72 | 53 | 62.5 | 0.00 06/24 | 74 | 50 | 62.0 | 0.00 06/25 | 80 | 50 | 65.0 | 0.00 06/26 | 84 | 58 | 71.0 | 0.00 06/27 | 82 | 60 | 71.0 | 0.00 06/28 | 85 | 65 | 75.0 | 0.00 06/29 | 80 | 68 | 74.0 | 0.17 06/30 | 78 | 59 | 68.5 | 0.05 JUNE 1982 SUMMARY: Precipitation: 8.12" (Max 1-Day: 2.36") Means: High 73.8F | Low 56.4F | Avg 65.1F Max Values: High 85F | Low 68F | Avg 75.0F Min Values: High 54F | Low 50F | Avg 52.0F JULY 1982 Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp -------------------------------- 07/01 | 75 | 52 | 63.5 | 0.00 07/02 | 78 | 50 | 64.0 | 0.00 07/03 | 62 | 58 | 60.0 | 0.52 07/04 | 78 | 55 | 66.5 | 0.00 07/05 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00 07/06 | 81 | 56 | 68.5 | 0.00 07/07 | 86 | 64 | 75.0 | 0.00 07/08 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.07 07/09 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.00 07/10 | 86 | 66 | 76.0 | 0.00 07/11 | 81 | 69 | 75.0 | 0.00 07/12 | 85 | 63 | 74.0 | 0.00 07/13 | 85 | 59 | 72.0 | 0.00 07/14 | 91 | 63 | 77.0 | 0.00 07/15 | 88 | 72 | 80.0 | 0.00 07/16 | 90 | 70 | 80.0 | 0.00 07/17 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00 07/18 | 92 | 75 | 83.5 | 0.00 07/19 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00 07/20 | 84 | 71 | 77.5 | 0.08 07/21 | 84 | 63 | 73.5 | 0.00 07/22 | 88 | 59 | 73.5 | 0.00 07/23 | 87 | 70 | 78.5 | 0.00 07/24 | 86 | 62 | 74.0 | 0.00 07/25 | 91 | 62 | 76.5 | 0.00 07/26 | 93 | 70 | 81.5 | 0.00 07/27 | 88 | 73 | 80.5 | 0.64 07/28 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.92 07/29 | 83 | 62 | 72.5 | 0.00 07/30 | 74 | 63 | 68.5 | 0.01 07/31 | 83 | 66 | 74.5 | 0.66 JULY 1982 SUMMARY: Precipitation: 2.90" (Max 1-Day: 0.92") Means: High 84.2F | Low 64.5F | Avg 74.4F Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F Min Values: High 62F | Low 50F | Avg 60.0F AUGUST 1982 Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp -------------------------------- 08/01 | 83 | 64 | 73.5 | 0.00 08/02 | 84 | 64 | 74.0 | 0.38 08/03 | 82 | 63 | 72.5 | 0.00 08/04 | 86 | 65 | 75.5 | 0.57 08/05 | 90 | 72 | 81.0 | 0.00 08/06 | 82 | 69 | 75.5 | 0.00 08/07 | 81 | 67 | 74.0 | 0.00 08/08 | 83 | 72 | 77.5 | 0.00 08/09 | 85 | 71 | 78.0 | 0.64 08/10 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.00 08/11 | 72 | 61 | 66.5 | 0.18 08/12 | 78 | 57 | 67.5 | 0.00 08/13 | 76 | 54 | 65.0 | 0.00 08/14 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00 08/15 | 83 | 56 | 69.5 | 0.00 08/16 | 85 | 58 | 71.5 | 0.00 08/17 | 85 | 62 | 73.5 | 0.18 08/18 | 79 | 59 | 69.0 | 0.00 08/19 | 84 | 55 | 69.5 | 0.00 08/20 | 81 | 61 | 71.0 | 0.08 08/21 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00 08/22 | 70 | 50 | 60.0 | 0.00 08/23 | 74 | 58 | 66.0 | 0.04 08/24 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.00 08/25 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.38 08/26 | 82 | 57 | 69.5 | 0.00 08/27 | 71 | 64 | 67.5 | 0.00 08/28 | 74 | 56 | 65.0 | 0.00 08/29 | 70 | 46 | 58.0 | 0.00 08/30 | 75 | 59 | 67.0 | 0.00 08/31 | 82 | 61 | 71.5 | 0.02 AUGUST 1982 SUMMARY: Precipitation: 2.47" (Max 1-Day: 0.64") Means: High 80.2F | Low 60.8F | Avg 70.5F Max Values: High 92F | Low 72F | Avg 81.0F Min Values: High 70F | Low 46F | Avg 58.0F SUMMER 1982 TOTAL SUMMARY: Precipitation: 13.49" (Max 1-Day: 2.36") Means: High 79.5F | Low 60.6F | Avg 70.0F Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F Min Values: High 54F | Low 46F | Avg 52.0F SUMMER 1982 TEMPERATURE FREQUENCY (DAYS) HIGH TEMPERATURES Period | ---------------------------------------------- JUNE | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 0 JULY | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 7 AUGUST | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 1 ---------------------------------------------- SUMMER | 1 | 8 | 28 | 47 | 8 LOW TEMPERATURES Period | ----------------------------------------- JUNE | 0 | 24 | 6 | 0 JULY | 0 | 8 | 14 | 9 AUGUST | 1 | 13 | 14 | 3 ----------------------------------------- SUMMER | 1 | 45 | 34 | 12 Imagine only 12 nights with a low above 70 and 8 days of 90's Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

March 1960 The coldest March in Harrisburg history Date High (°F) Low (°F) 03/01/1960 32.0 20.0 03/02/1960 33.0 18.0 03/03/1960 28.0 19.0 03/04/1960 24.0 18.0 03/05/1960 25.0 18.0 03/06/1960 31.0 18.0 03/07/1960 25.0 11.0 03/08/1960 29.0 12.0 03/09/1960 31.0 13.0 03/10/1960 33.0 19.0 03/11/1960 32.0 12.0 03/12/1960 35.0 17.0 03/13/1960 35.0 18.0 03/14/1960 37.0 23.0 03/15/1960 39.0 21.0 03/16/1960 37.0 20.0 03/17/1960 38.0 30.0 03/18/1960 43.0 33.0 03/19/1960 41.0 28.0 03/20/1960 42.0 29.0 03/21/1960 37.0 28.0 03/22/1960 39.0 25.0 03/23/1960 37.0 23.0 03/24/1960 45.0 27.0 03/25/1960 32.0 22.0 03/26/1960 43.0 23.0 03/27/1960 59.0 29.0 03/28/1960 72.0 41.0 03/29/1960 67.0 42.0 03/30/1960 65.0 46.0 03/31/1960 61.0 52.0 MARCH 1960 SNOW & PRECIPITATION BREAKDOWN DAYS WITH SNOW RECORDED Date Precip Snow Ratio (S:L) --------------------------------------------- 03/03/1960 1.05" 10.5" (10.0:1) 03/04/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1) 03/05/1960 0.01" 0.1" (10.0:1) 03/07/1960 0.02" 0.6" (30.0:1) 03/08/1960 0.01" 0.4" (40.0:1) 03/10/1960 0.09" 1.8" (20.0:1) 03/16/1960 0.26" 3.2" (12.3:1) 03/17/1960 0.44" 3.0" (6.8:1) 03/21/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1) 03/22/1960 0.18" 2.0" (11.1:1) 03/24/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1) 03/26/1960 0.04" 0.4" (10.0:1) --------------------------------------------- Subtotal: 2.13" 22.6" (10.6:1) Snow Day Count: 12 DAYS WITH NO SNOW RECORDED Date Precip ------------------------- 03/01/1960 0.00" 03/02/1960 0.00" 03/06/1960 0.00" 03/09/1960 0.00" 03/11/1960 0.00" 03/12/1960 0.00" 03/13/1960 0.00" 03/14/1960 0.00" 03/15/1960 0.00" 03/18/1960 0.00" 03/19/1960 0.00" 03/20/1960 0.00" 03/23/1960 0.00" 03/25/1960 0.00" 03/27/1960 0.00" 03/28/1960 0.00" 03/29/1960 0.00" 03/30/1960 0.32" 03/31/1960 0.07" ------------------------- Subtotal: 0.39" MONTHLY TOTALS Total Precipitation: 2.52" Total Snowfall: 22.6" 1960 TEMPERATURE RANKINGS (1 = Coldest) Month | Avg Temp | Rank (Coldest) ---------------------------------------- March | 31.7F | 1/126 April | 56.7F | 118/126 May | 59.9F | 25/125 June | 70.5F | 45/125 July | 72.9F | 4/125 August | 75.0F | 82/125 Watching MU Twitter as this unfolded would have been a guilty pleasure Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here are station reading that Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Most snow fell on Saturday. By Sunday it was up near 60 if not above. Absolutely bonkers storm that dropped a ton of preceiptitation. I wish I had the low track and pressure readings for that bomb. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

1919 103" 1924 74 1925 70 1926 90.75 1927 67 1928 81.75 I believe those were the snowfall readings from a place called horseshoe crab in Altoona. They want very many stations back in the day. And Altoona area as a super wide variance it's snowfalls depending upon location with elevation and lake enhancement. Trying to get a handle on that area's actual snowfall through the years was a nightmare because of that. So much of that years mean was dependent upon what station was reporting in where the stations were. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I've been building myself a little personal weather history database. I have for KMDT and KCXY every hourly reading for in the NCEI database. They have missing hours, obviously as you go back in time, but combined I pretty much have at least a temperature reading hourly going back to the 1930's. I also have complete daily records for York and Lancaster and a lot of co-op that have come and went over the years. There really wasn't explosion of them around World war II. Soon as I decide about storage and server setup I'm going to see about attaining all 5 minute asos automated sensor readings. But at that point it's GB of data and doesn't really move the needle too much on what I'm doing. I was also starting to look more into soil temperature records and hydro automatic creek sensors for nailing down preceiptitation which is a big interest. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What was your question? The reason the odds were so high there wasn't because it snowed a 100". It was because it did so essentially back to back years. You essentially have two 99th percentile winters happening in a rough. I accounted for the "stickyness" of winters through autocorrelation Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I agree with you in that I think there will be opportunities here. I'm just trying to set expectations in a proper manner. Realistically here are the return periods for different snow levels along with the last qualifying event. I would be hesitant to believe any storm snow maps going forward that paint more then 6" unless we get situated and a historically cold air mass, -25+ departure from normal, or we have a bomb perfectly of ocean city. I love l looking at some of the true late March / Easter bombs from before the satellite era. It's tough finding hourly data at times but I remember one from I think early 1940"s where it was snowing from DC to Harrisburg to Philly while raining in North Central to north east pa. It was 31-32 in dc while pushing 40 in Williamsport and Allentown. Pure dynamics driven as the low bombed out and retrograded. The ccb eventually made it to Allentown. The undisputed king of these storms is the 4 day March 18-21, 1958 storm where the low bombed out and was cut off. Snow was super elevation dependent and dynamic dependent. Philadelphia received 11.4" spread out over 4 days. Harrisburg was 1958-03-18: 0.0" 1958-03-19: 4.0" 1958-03-20: 4.7" 1958-03-21: 0.2" Total (Mar 18–21): 8.9" Morgantown, Pennsylvania 50". I'm sure some of the high spots down in Adams and York counties did absolutely amazing. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The historical Max and anomaly is March 1960. Maybe the month I dream about experiencing the most. In March 1960, the Northeast saw a relentless pattern that produced 7 distinct measurable snow events for the Harrisburg (MDT) area, totaling that record-setting cumulative amount. It wasn't just one "Superstorm"; it was a "parade" of systems that kept the ground white for nearly the entire month. Here is how that active March unfolded for Harrisburg: March 1960 Storm Timeline (Harrisburg/MDT) | Date | Snowfall Amount | Notes | |---|---|---| | March 3 | 10.5" | The primary "anchor" storm of the month. | | March 10 | 1.8" | A cold-sector clipper system. | | March 16 | 3.2" | Moderate overrunning event. | | March 17 | 3.0" | St. Patrick's Day system. | | March 22 | 2.0" | Late-season coastal influence. | | Minor Events | 2.1" | Combined totals from minor dustings (March 4, 7, 8, 21, 24). | | Total | 22.6" | (Catalog sum for distinct events) | Prior to this month that winter had produced 27" of snow, similar to us now. But March was notice to all the new decade was a different beast Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The Regime Transition Probability Map is a visualization of a Markov Chain transition matrix, designed to quantify the likelihood of shifts between specific atmospheric states. It represents a century of regional snowfall data processed through a K-Means clustering algorithm. Statistical Mechanics of the Map * Axes: The vertical axis (Current Cluster) defines the point of origin, representing the weather regime of the most recent event. The horizontal axis (Next Cluster) represents the predicted destination for the subsequent atmospheric event. * Probability Density: The numerical values and corresponding blue shading represent the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of a transition occurring between any two clusters. A value closer to 1.0 (darker blue) indicates a high statistical probability, while a value closer to 0.0 (lighter blue) suggests a rare or unlikely transition. Current Regime Analysis: Transition from Cluster 3 Following the high-intensity coastal event on February 23, the atmospheric state is currently positioned in Cluster 3 (Extreme Synoptic). Analyzing the Row 3 data provides the following probabilistic insights: * Pattern Persistence (3 to 3): The probability located at the intersection of Row 3 and Column 3 quantifies the likelihood of the atmosphere remaining in a high-intensity coastal redevelopment cycle. * Regime Decay (3 to 2): Historically, late-February Cluster 3 events exhibit a strong statistical trend toward Cluster 2 (Clipper / Fast-Moving). This represents a transition from high-payload moisture systems to lower-accumulation, high-ratio arctic systems. * Inland Transition (3 to 1): The probability of shifting to Cluster 1 (Miller B / Overrunning) indicates the likelihood of the next system following an inland track rather than the coastal track observed yesterday. Probabilistic Representation The map demonstrates that weather patterns are not random but operate within a set of statistically favored transitions. For a Cluster 3 point of origin, the high concentration of probability in the Cluster 2 column suggests a regime shift toward diminished regional totals. This indicates that while extreme events like the one yesterday are significant, they are statistically followed by a period of lower intensity as the seasonal atmospheric steering flow begins its spring transition. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If anyone wants it I have daily snowfall, snow depth, max temperature, min temperature. data so far for 1/1/1925 to 12/31/2025 from about 35 stations across Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts. I was able to use Google Colab and python script to combine it all in csv. It's big for a csv, over a 100mb. I converted it into a paraquat file to use more easily in python and that's just over 9mb. Regime 0 (Steady Coastal - Miller A): Features three sub-regimes. Variant 0.1 is the outlier here, representing high-moisture coastal systems that dump significantly more than the baseline. Regime 1 (Miller B / Overrunning): Highly frequent but generally lower in average intensity. Variant 1.2 is the heavy-hitter for this category, often associated with redeveloping systems that "capture" deep moisture. Regime 2 (Clipper / Fast-Moving): This is your most frequent baseline. Variant 2.0 represents the "peak" clipper—fast, cold, and efficient, occurring nearly 500 times in the century. Regime 3 (Extreme Synoptic): The "Big One" category. Even its "weakest" variant (3.0) averages nearly 3 inches of snow, while the primary peak (3.1) averages 4 inches across the entire regional station network. The graphic also includes the Event Counts for each sub-cluster, allowing you to see which atmospheric setups are common versus which are rare historical anomalies. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The median snow for Harrisburg after a February storm like the one the other day this late in February here is the past outcomes 25th 0.48 Median 2.66" 75th 6.28" So likely all we get rest of season is a 1"-3"/3"-6" She's just about done. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We unfortunately just had a triple phaser with the Halloween snow awhile back. I doubt we get another one for another 20-30 years. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

A post about increasing sun angle and how it affects rates needed to accumulate on asphalt. It truly brings home the point that the 1993 storm was in its own league beyond even what we informed people think. It needed to overcome 2.3x more solar radiation than mid January and 1.5x more than mid February. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

March 15 is the cliff Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The next project I started working on gathering daily weather data for about 20-30 locations throughout the mid Atlantic and northeast that have a 100 year history or more to attempt to brake down the sub types of miller a and miller b and answer tough questions like "if a storm hits like yesterday, how does that effect the odds of our winter going forward?". I'm sure it has a giant temporal component but we shall see. Below are percentage chance of storms occuring by day in March and a decade regime change in snowfall distributions for the fragmented Altoona area Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I bit the bullet and downloaded state colleges record daily weather going back to 1894 and built a model to run 100,000 simulations. Got it to pass all over fitting tests, have a 99% percentile correlation, 94% interweek variability correlation, 98% intra- seasonal correlation based on auto-lag correlations. To have repeat of winter 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 back to back order not important it is a 1:1666 year event. To repeat the first four years of the 1960s 1:768 year event. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk