Jns2183

On the negative side we seemed primed to waste the best two weeks of cold in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Only 25-35mph winds Saturday night into Sunday? I thought we were primes for 40-50mph+++? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm really liking that storm mid week next week Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think they may verify for a blizzard Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'll take that 6" clipper system next and be thrilled Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I would say to trust any deterministic model in this setup is folly. Ensembles until 48 hours out. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's the surprise storm I was talking about. I wish I could find the forecast the night before up here. Im sure it was similar or worse than DC forecast of "Gusty snow showers, maybe an inch" where instead they woke up to 6" of snow in near blizzard conditions. I can't even imagine the shit storm if that happened today. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At this stage if you're going to look at run to run focus solely on the 500mb evolution. Without that there is nothing Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This storm seems like it can only succeed by threading the needle where it's almost all or nothing. If any storm has the potential to be a last second bust or surprise storm aka January 2000 it's this one. I think I'm just going to take a break till Friday evening and check on it then. Also we don't need to know about every model miss if that's your entire contribution. if you can't at least add something about its evolution or something of value. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I hope we score something because right now most models give .10 qpf the next 10-15 days. That ranks in bottom 10% of all periods with a mean temperature at or below what they are predicting for averag temperature Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Google model Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Correlation Is a snowy start a predictor of a snowy finish? General Correlation: Across all years since 1899, the correlation is nearly zero (0.08). In the broad historical sense, a snowy start to winter does not guarantee a snowy end. Qualifying Years Correlation: Interestingly, when looking only at the 28 seasons that started as snowy as this one, the correlation increases to 0.24. Interpretation: While the general rule is that early snow doesn't predict late snow, in "active" years like this one, there is a slight positive trend. History suggests that when the pattern is active enough to give us 21.7" by late January, it tends to stay slightly more active than a typical year through the spring. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Where do we go from here? Analyzing 21.7" by Jan 25th (Harrisburg/Middletown) Hey eve With our current seasonal total sitting at 21.7" as of January 25th, I decided to dig into the historical archives for the Middletown-Harrisburg area to see how this stacks up and what "history" says about the rest of our winter. I looked at every season since 1899 to find years that met or exceeded our current 21.7" by today’s date. Here’s the breakdown: The Historical Analogues There are 28 seasons in our history that reached this mark by Jan 25th. * Average Final Total: 48.4" * Snowiest Year in this Group: 1960-1961 (Finished at 81.3") * Least Snowy Year in this Group: 1987-1988 (Finished at 26.7") What’s Left in the Tank? (Snow after Jan 25th) Looking only at what fell after today’s date in those 28 seasons: * Average remaining snow: 17.6" * Median remaining snow: 15.5" * The "Boom" Scenario: 1993-1994 added a massive 45.6" after Jan 25th! * The "Bust" Scenario: 1953-1954 only added 1.5" more. The "Confidence" Forecast Based strictly on these 28 historical matches, here is the probability for our final seasonal total: * 90% Certainty: We finish with at least 27.1" * 75% Certainty: We finish with at least 30.6" * 50% Certainty (The Coin Flip): We finish with at least 37.2" * 25% Certainty: We finish with at least 47.7" * 10% Certainty (The Longshot): We finish with at least 53.4" Context: The Big 2-Day Hitters For those wondering about the "big one," here are the top 2-day totals ever recorded in our data: * 30.2" (Jan 22-23, 2016) * 25.0" (Feb 11-12, 1983) * 22.2" (Jan 7-8, 1996) * 21.0" (Jan 15-16, 1945) * 20.4" (Mar 13-14, 1993) Summary: History suggests we are about 55-60% of the way through our seasonal snowfall. If we follow the "average" of our historical peers, we're looking at another 17" or so before spring. What do you guys think? Do we follow the 1994 path (+45") or the 1954 path (+1.5")? [emoji3587][emoji409] Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

There were 17 seasons where the official Harrisburg station recorded 14" plus in a 2-day or less event since 1890. Here are the stats Statistics for these 17 Seasons: Count: 17 Mean: 49.91" Std Dev: 18.54" Median (50%): 47.20" Min: 23.90" Max: 81.30" 25th Percentile: 38.00" 75th Percentile: 57.70" For 12" plus Statistics for these 31 Seasons: Count: 31 Mean: 45.82" Std Dev: 16.39" Median (50%): 39.50" Min: 23.90" Max: 81.30" 25th Percentile: 34.95" 75th Percentile: 54.45 For 10" plus Statistics for these 48 Seasons: Count: 48 Mean: 42.90" Std Dev: 15.12" Median (50%): 39.30" Min: 18.40" Max: 81.30" 25th Percentile: 33.50" 75th Percentile: 50.85" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk