Jns2183

I see two of the three main points in CTP AFD point to winds. Tonight into Sunday, and the end of next week with perhaps colder air than we currently have. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Our last storm I figured out the snowfall maps at 24 hours by the major models were not that much better than at 60 hours. The qpf maps were. I just think inherently the variation in ratios and qpf over such small areas is an absolute hurdle unless you're going to throw stupid amounts of $ via processing power and even then, you may get a bit more accurate. It isn't even the models are bad, it's just an impossible task Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

On the negative side we seemed primed to waste the best two weeks of cold in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Only 25-35mph winds Saturday night into Sunday? I thought we were primes for 40-50mph+++? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm really liking that storm mid week next week Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think they may verify for a blizzard Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'll take that 6" clipper system next and be thrilled Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I would say to trust any deterministic model in this setup is folly. Ensembles until 48 hours out. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's the surprise storm I was talking about. I wish I could find the forecast the night before up here. Im sure it was similar or worse than DC forecast of "Gusty snow showers, maybe an inch" where instead they woke up to 6" of snow in near blizzard conditions. I can't even imagine the shit storm if that happened today. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At this stage if you're going to look at run to run focus solely on the 500mb evolution. Without that there is nothing Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This storm seems like it can only succeed by threading the needle where it's almost all or nothing. If any storm has the potential to be a last second bust or surprise storm aka January 2000 it's this one. I think I'm just going to take a break till Friday evening and check on it then. Also we don't need to know about every model miss if that's your entire contribution. if you can't at least add something about its evolution or something of value. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I hope we score something because right now most models give .10 qpf the next 10-15 days. That ranks in bottom 10% of all periods with a mean temperature at or below what they are predicting for averag temperature Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Google model Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Correlation Is a snowy start a predictor of a snowy finish? General Correlation: Across all years since 1899, the correlation is nearly zero (0.08). In the broad historical sense, a snowy start to winter does not guarantee a snowy end. Qualifying Years Correlation: Interestingly, when looking only at the 28 seasons that started as snowy as this one, the correlation increases to 0.24. Interpretation: While the general rule is that early snow doesn't predict late snow, in "active" years like this one, there is a slight positive trend. History suggests that when the pattern is active enough to give us 21.7" by late January, it tends to stay slightly more active than a typical year through the spring. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk