Jns2183

That 68 wind guest should be 28:for Harrisburg, haha Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

MOS WHACK A MOLE I've learned way way too much about this over the last couple months so now you get to also. If you ever wonder why a new version of the GFS is in training forever it's MOS, it is always MOS MOS is basically not “an equation.” It’s a bloated empire of site-by-site statistical band-aids. At one station like MDT, a single MOS package can involve hundreds to over a thousand equations once you break out forecast hour, variable, and category thresholds. Then double it for warm vs. cool season. Now spread that across 2,000 sites and multiple guidance systems, and you’re dealing with millions of regression equations. So when model physics gets changed upstream, MDL doesn’t get a fun little tune-up. They get to play nationwide statistical whack-a-mole because half their bias-correction patchwork may now be off. That’s the whole game. MY next little project until I recover from winter storm data burnout is one I'm almost halfway through. A fun little deep dive into the various MOS for the the GFS, NAM, HRRR, NBM and a 10 year (8 year for NBM);statistical analysis of forcasting skill by them for KMDT using about 25 metrics from NWS and Research Papers for every variable that can be seen, computer, derived from data record of KMDT. And think. This skill is after a couple thousand linear regression equations to brow beat NAMs drunken benders Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Thank you. I have to fix the stuff on the RSI page to actually show all records I have. I downloaded our top 10 storms from dive in CSV format but git hub co-pilot wanted to just keep the 4 station theme going and I was in no mood to fix after 5 hours at 1:30am. Eventually I'll try to get all the storms I can between RSI and Cocorahs. All accumulation I have are from kmdt for most part due to them actually keeping track of snow there. Small airports don't really have a point person for that. Other than that I downloaded every single hourly and daily record I could from those 4 sites over the years. 500mb of csv files, thank God for paraquet formats. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I finally finished cateloging all winter storms greater than 3" since 2000 till end of 2025 77 storms A bunch of other winter stuff is there too. I think it's a good start https://jns182wx.github.io/winter-weather/ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I guess I should add York. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You say that now, but just wait till we get locked in the 50's half of May. On the years ahead of us from work they finish a plus 1.7 and exactly normal for April and May. Although they did have April's with mean in 40s and may mean In 50's Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If you ever asked the question "I wonder what the local ASOS Stations at KCXY, KMDT, KTHV, KLNS record for wind when they have an kind of Snow" I have the fun answers below. Local terrain and microclimates making themselves known. Especially the wind tunnel that is the Susquehanna River Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The record for >=70 is 11 in 1945 and 9 in 1946 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What network are all the sites you post about on, co-op or cocorahs? When I was doing a spatial analysis of reporting stations I ran head first into Chester County, an enigma into itself with at ones being an incredibly densley observed county, yet parts are no better than the hinterlands of the north. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Some more fun things Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

here is a gif i made while working on a project that I think people might enjoy. It shows weather station density in PA, NY, NJ from 1930's to present day. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r4BDH1gMlgvlXgP7s1zNFQnUv9bTeEhS/view?usp=sharing

I’ve been looking back at the January 25, 2026 storm where MDT pulled in about 11" of snow. One of the most frustrating parts of that event was the "yo-yo" effect: we went from heavy snow to sleet, back to snow, and then back to sleet again. We often talk about Dynamic Cooling (where heavy precip "drags" cold air down or uses melting/evaporation to zero out a warm layer), but in this storm, it felt like the heavy rates were also doing the opposite. I’d love to get some thoughts on the Latent Heat Paradox from this event: The Cooling Phase: At what point does the "Melting Tax" (energy absorbed to turn snow to rain) lose the battle to the Latent Heat of Fusion (energy released when rain freezes into sleet pellets)? It felt like the very act of creating sleet was releasing enough heat to "insulate" the warm nose aloft. Altitude of Condensation: Did the transition back to snow mid-storm happen because the best lift/condensation shifted into the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), or did we just finally "exhaust" the warm nose through pure melting cooling? The Disconnect: How do we reconcile the massive negative anomalies we saw on the 850mb maps with the persistent sleet pings we heard on the windows? Was this a case of the storm "cooking its own environment" through condensation warming at the mid-levels? Would love to see some sounding analysis or thoughts on which latent process were dominant at which times Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ is absolutely amazing but a maize. I turned all my notes and such into a detailed thorough guide which will show you how to use everything available on that site. First draft but enjoy!!!! https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M59tszF8on7NCKx5jDxjthuXuQ25QnML/view?usp=drivesdk Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Beautiful storm Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I thought you might enjoy these graphs Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk