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Tony Sisk

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Posts posted by Tony Sisk

  1. 28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

    Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though.

    poor mackerel is 6 miles south of 85...I'm about 6 miles north of 85. Crazy how that interstate seems to always be a dividing line. Of course, there is that ole Duke Power Nuclear Plant bubble! Hoping we all are happy!

    • Like 1
  2. 22 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

    I'm very encouraged by the HRRR.

    This is my very weenie take on the situation, and what I am clinging to for the moment.

    thank you for your analysis burrel2, some great posts today. I like when you are optimistic! I don't know about you, but the wildlife are very aggressive today...almost like they can sense something. Outside my window, I have seen two sets of geese fighting (maybe mating) and saw a couple hawks, together. Which is very unusual.

    • Like 3
  3. 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

    Robert mentions thunder possible tomorrow from ATL,CAE, to CLT in his latest post on FB!

    His opening line is comical....there is clearly one state missing in that lineup!  OURS!

    The new model data from NAM is in. Snow increases in much more of Tennessee, extreme northern Alabama, extreme northern Georgia and much of North Carolina and much of southern and central Virginia.

  4. 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    Not sure how this is going to play out , but Tim Buckley said the High Pressure on the models is being overdone....

    Which if true, would mean cold air is being overdone...correct?  Based on the last two very minor events, the high pressures outperformed and gave us some nice snow falling from the skies!

  5. 7 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

    I'm the weather guy at my school, granted not a good one, mainly the guy that tries to regurgitate all the information I read on here.  Granted I am also the one that loves snow and I have seen the term giddy several times on here and I'm that times freaking 20.  BUTTTTTT, dadgumit there's always a but - is it really possible for this to happen without WAA and everything Pack said? Who knows? Being the optimist, no one thought david could win either.  #BeatGoliath #LetItFreakingSnow

    I'm assuming a youth in HS. Fantastic to see youth interested in weather. Keep up the great work, and hopefully others at your school are interested. One of my fondest memories from HS 78-81 was a young boy with special needs that memorized the weather every day. There are lots of excellent weather sources here...follow your dreams. Hope you make a LOT of people happy this weekend!

    sorry for the banter, just wanted to encourage a student!

    • Like 4
  6. 38 minutes ago, jburns said:

    Here's a reason for the difference in GSP and RAL.

    GSP

    
    The low subsequently will move across the Southeast
    Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration.

    RAL

    low
    tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into
    a Miller B configuration 

    Sorry, I originally had that backwards.  Fixed now.

    Too bad this winter storm can’t be named “Miller”!

    • Haha 1
  7. 49 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

    I'm getting pretty dang excited here. Keeping my expectations tempered that the upstate will undoubtedly be sleet for the majority of the storm, I'm going to say any snowfall accumulation will be a bonus in my book.  The sleet may really pile up though as I expect us to go from 33/34 Saturday evening quickly down in to the upper 20's as the heaviest precip moves in.

    Get your popcorn ready for the 18z NAM, i'm betting it's going to be a doozy. 

    The latest discussion from the GSP NWS...they are still being extremely cautious.

  8. 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

    That’s not how damming works! CAD cold air comes from VA, and mountains don’t block it, they help it funnel down

    Uh, you missed the point. It's all about the placement of the High. Yes, "damming is when the cold air is funneled along the eastern slopes of the mountains. That is a very good thing. The poster is correct though...if the high is too far north and west, the cold air has to go over the mountains....not funneled down the eastern slope. 

  9. 36 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

    Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.

    for someone who has spent my entire life in Upstate, SC....it's all about that H. Is it going to be strong enough to funnel cold air on the East side of the mountains to our area? It is impossible for people who have never lived here...to understand how much those mountains affect our weather. 

    • Sad 1
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