OceanStWx

Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches.

Nice catch, and excellent use of depolarization.

I would have a hard time believing true sleet (i.e. total melting even with latent heating going on). It's not unprecedented though, as the Groundhog Day blizzard in 2011 saw similar reports in northern Illinois. And if lightning was as prolific last winter as in 2011 I would have to imagine at least some graupel production would be going on to generate those kind of charge separations necessary. If truly intense upgright convection formed, I could envision a scenario where enough super-cooled water was lofted to form hail from these suspended graupel particles.

I think my best involved a strong clipper. We got about a quarter inch of solid glaze ice and winds were sustained 35 gusting to 45/50 mph behind the system for the evening launch. Now our UA building has doors that face north and south, so a westerly wind is basically pick your poison for which door to attempt to run out. I set the sonde up outside in an easy position for my free hand to grab it, because I know the balloon is going to catch the wind right away. This is something I had done many times before. So I come out the door and now the balloon grabs the wind and I'm being dragged down the ice with absolutely no traction to stop. I slide right past the sonde and end up crawling on my hands and knees to get back to it. After all that effort the balloon still got caught in an eddy and the sonde ended up bouncing. I mean that balloon is never going to lift you off the ground, but without traction is will take you for a ride. I can only imagine how it reacts once you're over hurricane force.

Those high wind launches are always your best stories, and the ones you'll remember. Though I can honestly say I never had the pleasure of even approaching 65 mph.

My first day of work at DVN, I remember I came back in to assist with the evening launch and comms. I remember wondering what I got myself into when the temps around 00z were close to 85/80. Funny though that 6/18/09 immediately popped into my head when I saw the question, despite this sounding having the higher CAPE values.

Well I'm not sure the reaction extended that far up the chain, but my guess is that politicians were leaning heavily on department and agency heads for answers as to why so many people died. These politicians of course had no prior knowledge regarding the forecast/warnings and just see the end result. The service assessment began this week, and what I'm personally hoping comes out of it is a focus on preparedness and response/action. Some of these deaths were inevitable, but I also feel that a number (probably significant) of them could have been spared with better preparedness leading up to and better response during the event.

I attended a conference where one of the surveyors gave a presentation on rating the Elie tornado. It was interesting how they went about it. Even though it directly impacted some man made structures they didn't feel like they had enough information to go on. They ended up using video (from a tripod) to track debris of known size to determine wind speed. Regardless, great thought, effort and care went into that rating.

Higher than HQ from what I understand, as in "what did we do wrong to have so many people die?" Edit: I do, however, think we should question how we can keep fewer people from dying. But I don't necessarily think anything was done wrong.

In addition to two other EF3s that went through Marion County.

I understand that infrastructure was compromised from morning convection, but this is my opportunity to preach preparedness. Many large events are often preceded by morning convection, some of which is severe and does damage. Especially with an event as well forecast as this, I don't think there should be thousands of people being caught off guard. A $20 weather radio with back up batteries can go a long way. For every inconvenience of being woken up in the middle of the night for a false alarm, there is a life saved and that's worth it. I know it pains me to hear these stories about "no warning" when in reality it was not receiving a warning. I can't imagine how it feels for the many, many warning forecasters out there who issued good warnings but had people perish anyway. I have already heard some disturbing reactions from the higher ups in DC, and it will be very interesting to see how the service assessment plays out. Will it be a blame game or will we actually figure out some new ways to reach people and disseminate the message.

I see what you're saying now, but still seems odd to me to have a tornado that short produce damage that extreme. Truly a violent vortex if that's the case.

My guess is that this is the path length in the CWA only. If you check out a map, it is roughly 3 miles to the AL border. That information will likely be updated for final storm data purposes, once HUN finishes their surveys.

Paraphrasing a FEMA administrator in Tuscaloosa, they haven't even gotten to the damage in northern Alabama yet (i.e. Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, Decatur, etc.).

As did the latest CNN interview I saw. Leading them into the answer by asking if they heard, "any alarms before the tornado hit." I appreciate the hell on Earth they just went through, but Ringgold, GA was struck hours into the event. I don't understand how this could take people by surprise, to the point that they were outside when the tornado hit and they only ran inside when they saw a neighbor's roof come off.

Totally believable, as that supercell tracked all the way over the border.

I have no knowledge of whether it was or not, but I would lean towards warned because these signatures were just so apparent. I certainly hope that wasn't the case. Unfortunately, there will be a lot of "no warning" reports in the next couple of days despite the fact that there was a high risk, long lead PDS watch, and long lead warnings with aggressive wording.

The hours covering 21z/27 - 00z/28 will include the tornado that hit both Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

For what specifically? The extreme part of the outbreak lasted well over 8 hours.

CNN had one of their field reporters bring up a great point that adds to the complexity of the damage assessments. Some of these piles of rubble, did not originate from the nearest foundation. Some of these were just deposited there, and it takes time to figure out whether it came from there or somewhere else.

You know what struck me (besides the obvious devastation down the middle) were the strips of damage that most likely were associated with vorticies rotating around the main funnel. We know these were occurring from the various videos out there, and the damage seems to confirm that these were also very strong, to no ones surprise.

Being a student of Fujita, I would say he's got a pretty sound base of knowledge on the subject. I remember his assessment while in Atlanta as he viewed damage in Yazoo City was excellent.

Couldn't agree more, considering how rare an event they are in the first place having those ingredients come together covering that great a distance is awe inspiring.

Thank you for clearing up my error, I knew that didn't sound right as I was typing it. The fact remains that the wind speeds are determined from damage, and the damage that occurred in 1974 is what is being compared to this event. In fact one could argue that poorly built structures 36 years ago might have been rated lower with the current EF scale not higher. I also apologize if this discussion no longer belongs in this thread, it seems to have taken quite the tailspin since I left work.

I would tend to agree that it lifted east of Birmingham and put down a new one before hitting Rome, GA. However, the damage assessment could ultimately prove me wrong.