OceanStWx

42 knots measured at MVL, not too bad for an automated site.

Those winds are right on the reflectivity gradient. That should rip pretty good.

MRMS had like a 0.022 shear value there near Jay. That's definitely in the range of tornadic.

MWN should rip in a couple hours. CXX sampling 90 knots at 4 kft. It is roaring just off the deck behind that line.

Nasty storm going through Franklin County, VT. Big BWER on it, but CXX can't see the low level rotation at all.

Sampling 70 knots at 230 feet. That cell had some serious echo overhang to it.

Locally, I'm ready to knock down the corners of a few dog legs.

Yeah, north side of bowing segments is going to be the place to watch (like near RME right now). That puts the focus through VT, as the tail end of the line is lagging through the Southern Tier at the moment.

The forcing is starting to hit that reservoir of steep low level lapse rates.

-1 NROT with the storm in western MA. That's probably the "lowest" value I've ever seen. Considering +1 is important for tornadogenesis in New England.

Hodographs straighten out quite a bit above 1 km, which would support the elevated left movers. But of course still a decent tornado risk from the surface based right movers.

It's a nice left mover, so probably still a bit elevated.

Big BWER north of Old Forge.

This is going to be a pain in the azz to warn on. In these high shear environments, the storm height is effectively taller than it appears on radar. When the updraft gets tilted (due to the shear) it is longer relative to its height. So when looking for a core to a certain level, these storms may not show it before they start producing severe weather.

Sorry Bryce, Minnie and Mickey have to wait. Daddy is pulling up a radar loop from CXX.

The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours. Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now.

Obviously given the environment, any isolated storm that can pop ahead of the line would be very concerning. The Hudson and Connecticut Valleys channeling the southerly flow helps keep local helicity maxes going in those areas. Notably there is Cu bubbling down the Mohawk Valley, so it's possible.

While mid level lapse rates are mostly trash (hence meager CAPE so far) the low level lapse rates are doing quite well south of the warm front. That's probably the biggest driver of significant severe in situations like this. Pop a 20 kft updraft and it's already eating 65 knots of flow.

I mean the return period on moderate risks in the Northeast are not great, and neither are 10% tornado probabilities either. Hopefully SPC isn't getting out over the skis a bit.

Tip is right about one thing, measuring as close to the end of the snowfall as possible is ideal (and recommended by the way). But if you think about this all in an impact sense, what makes more sense: plows waiting until the snow stops and removing snow, or plows nearly continuously keeping roads clear? I would argue a plow operator is much closer to observing the 6 hourly snowfall amounts than the 24 hourly. It's one thing we've discussed internally about the 6" in 12 hours vs 9" in 24 hours warning criteria. If anything the lighter, longer duration 9" in 24 hours is more impactful because road crews are out longer.

Starting to look that way.

Obviously a long way to go, but even a moderate snow storm next week would give PWM a shot at top 3.

I mean there is probably a fair chance that sea scroll era measurements were just depth increases. I sincerely doubt some knickered colonist was clearing a patch every 24 hours to measure new snow.

Well the observation is the airport, not downtown anyway. So Winthrop is far more representative of that than downtown. Of course many argue about Tarmac observations and not where people live, but that's the way it's done. ASOS is BOS officially, and Winthrop is an acceptable distance from the ASOS and has an observer. Outside of Winthrop their closest active site is Franklin Park Zoo, and that's way too far away for climate purposes.

Hmm, 2.75" with 27" on the ground for 3/14. That does seem suspiciously like a snow core not a melted precip.