OceanStWx

Wiked RFD at the very least near Newburgh. Wouldn't be shocked if that spun up a brief tornado either.

You can see the OFB from the morning convection, and see it's almost lock step where these big storms are now.

EML FTW! It makes all the difference when creating robust updrafts. Plus the sky would tend to be more blue, because the dry air has less water vapor (obviously) and particulates that scattered other colors of light to make the sky appear paler.

At least tennis ball (2.5"). I have 63 dBZ to 32 kft from ENX. That's pretty darn close. Benjamin is on it.

Tarmac raining down on your mulch. But seriously that's a huge siggy hail signature between reflectivity and ZDR.

Not sure I would've dropped the TOR on the cell approaching BDL.

And the supercells are ingesting that now over CT. Not often you see 50 dBZ over 40 kft around these parts.

I can't remember if I said it this morning or not, but all this action is on the OFB from morning convection. That sort of reinforced the already present warm front.

Nice left mover that BOX just warned on (with lead time).

I also love GOES-16. When you loop the meso-sector you can actually see the flanking line rotating. The Cu forms and moves north, then "rolls over" to the east.

I mean 65 dBZ to 33 kft is completely supportive of baseballs. No slant sticking there.

Contours are probability of (in this case) updraft helicity greater than 75 m2/s2. With the individual model swaths of 75 plus shown. A good discriminator for supercell structure. The same product for 150 m2/s2 is fairly impressive too.

They could under the right conditions. 2008 was a hybrid QLCS of sorts (began as a lone supercell). It is possible it produced multiple tornadoes with wind damage in between, but QLCS tornadoes tend to be brief, and regenerate to the S.

As for tomorrow, the HREF has a nice swath of pretty siggy updraft helicity tracks from eastern NY to western New England. I think I would lean more towards a strong focus near the warm front vs. an exact location based on the CAMs right now, but it's a nice signal.

"Nearly continuous" Meaning it wasn't continuous. The story I've heard is that all the trees were mainly down to the NE or E, with a few to the NW. So in my opinion, either it was a tornado where the few to the NW were, OR this was straight line wind with a few randomly tossed trees based on local factors of tree weaknesses, etc. I mean it's all possible. The environment was fair for QLCS tornadoes, mainly west of NH, so it's not crazy that one happened. But 35 mile long one? Of course the beam is 11,000 ft above radar level near the CT River (about 9,000 ft from ENX) and still over 7,000 ft in Merrimack Co. These types of tornadoes are unlikely to be very deep mesos, but a long track one certainly would be (a la NH 2008).

All I can see from the radar data, is a broken S signature. But I'm not sure I would ever warn on the velocity couplet there.

No. They note part of it was inaccessible. Yes.

And if it is a 35 mile long tornado, there should be no BS "a more detailed PNS will be issued Tuesday." Someone should be on that ASAP.

I just downloaded the radar data, but I'll go to my grave not believing this is a 35 mile long tornado.

I call BS. I was warning operator that day, and I can buy a tornado near the CT River. The beam is like 7-8 kft there, easy to miss a low level QLCS tornado. But a 36 mile (4th-ish longest New England tornado), I don't think so. My guess (hope?) is that WMUR confused a statement about the length of thunderstorm wind damage with the smaller tornado path.

Well that's the thing. The EML has plenty of dry air, so if you can have some mechanism to suppress clouds (like subby) it should clear out. But if you keep weak height falls or something like that the low level moisture can just percolate at the bottom of that layer. All models have those subtle height rises tomorrow morning.

The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation.

Reporting RAPL. I think they mean RAGR

GFL 53 knots. Not bad.

That is really surging out and bowing now along 91 (viewed from GYX).