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Superstorm

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  1. @MUweather
    Due primarily to oppressively warm nights and a slew of days with highs between 89-95F, #July2025 concluded as the 2nd-hottest on record @millersvilleu since 1914. It was also the 10th-wettest on record thanks to a seemingly endless onslaught of slow-moving, drenching T-storms.

    Going to be a recurring theme in our new high humidity climate.


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    • Like 2
  2. 53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    From CTP:

    Southern/Southeastern PA/Lower Susquehanna Valley
    Farther south, this area is more removed from the jet-streak
    dynamics to the north. However, this region is closer to the
    deepening surface low with strong surface-925mb southerly
    theta-e advection directed into the southeastward advancing
    surface front. A tropical air-mass (depicted by 2-2.25" PWATs
    and low-mid 70s dew points) will coincide within a warm sector
    that becomes increasingly unstable (MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000
    J/kg). It is worth noting that SST anomalies along the Mid-
    Atlantic and Southeast coasts are well above normal too, acting
    as an abnormally rich moisture source for southerly low-level
    flow to draw from. By this afternoon, low-level WAA into the
    front will support storms enveloping the region with additional
    storms from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies
    tracking east. Modest vertical wind shear aloft will also
    support organized clusters of storms, some of which will have
    the potential to backbuild and train between the I-81 and I-95
    corridors into tonight. Latest 12Z HREF guidance shows 24-hr
    probabilities for >3" of rainfall are high (>70%) across southeast
    PA. Just as concerning is this same region sports 30-60%
    chances for >5" of rainfall with 24hr PMM/LPMM values close to
    the ensemble maxima approaching 8 inches.

    That is nuts.  Whoever gets in the deluge will be suffering some serious flooding.

    • Like 1
  3. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Flood Watch
    National Weather Service State College PA
    219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

    Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of York, Lancaster, and Gettysburg 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

    ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

    * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

    * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Adams, Lancaster and York.

    * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

    * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
    - Thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour may result in flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected with localized amounts of up to 5 inches possible.
    - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

    &&


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  4. 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Unfortunately, it also now appears that flood concerns are elevated on Thursday:

    .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
    Models show t-storms accompanying the southeastward moving
    front through CPA on Thursday. A wave of low pressure is now
    progged to move along the boundary, which has trended slower
    with its southward/southeastward progression. There also appears
    to be some enhanced large scale lift to support +RA in the form
    of right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High rain
    rates combined with ample deep layer moisture will continue to
    support an excessive rain/flash flood risk particularly across
    the southern tier of CPA on Thursday/D4.
    
    The slower southward movement may also delay north to south
    clearing, and we can`t rule out a stray shower lingering early
    Friday morning in southern tier/far southeast PA. That said,
    much of the area will be firmly in the dry/cooler sector by
    Friday afternoon.
    
    Behind the front, a comfortably cooler and refreshing airmass
    (much lower humidity) is poised to arrive just in time to begin
    the month of August. Slightly below average daytime highs
    70-80F and lows 50-60F are forecast along with no rainfall through
    the first weekend of August. Dewpoints will plummet into the

    This is not good.

    • 100% 1
  5. From MU:
    Here’s a fun little stat: there have only been 3, 90-degree days at @millersvilleu so far this month. However, the high temp has reached 89F on an additional 8 days. One single degree is separating us from having 20, 90-degree days so far this season. Instead, there have been 12.

    That’s why I am not into these stats when it comes to maximum high temperatures or cold minimum temperatures. Still felt like 90F.

    And the 90F mark is real not a good barometer anymore. 95F is the new 90F.


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    • Like 2
  6. Well, I got the Tempest elevated. It's above the standard 2m height for temperatures, but now it's more open, and above the fence tops for a better opportunity for more accurate wind speeds and directions.
    It's a homemade setup using one of the wife's clothesline props, so time will tell how well it holds up. I may need to get a more rigid post, but for now it's better than where it originally was.
     
    FB_IMG_1753104862488.thumb.jpg.6849c1ed9c666bb472a0a2188546f514.jpg

    Looks pretty solid


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  7. 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    Hey everyone......looky who stopped in...the wondertwins.

    Now do the forum a favor.....and deactivate. 

    (many old timers will get this)

     

    He offers far more credible info than you guys ever will.  

    i am GenX.  I got the reference.

    • Like 1
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