sferic

Liberty NY 1.5 inches OTG

Liberty NY (Sullivan County, 1,600FT elevation) Mod snow 1.5 inches on ground   20.7/20

Hope the HRRR is wrong for the catskills

Just now, snywx said:

 

Ive noticed the HRRR trending cooler each run. I expect some surprises with this storm 

If your hood and mine don't mix ever would we both get btwn 12-18?

Dewpoint here in Liberty dropped to 22 degrees from 24 degrees just an hour ago

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The warmer trend has increased the threat of ice, instead of sleet.

When will you release an updated map?

00Z suite will be interesting

If Sullivan county is assumed to be mainly snow, why is Deleware county to its north progged at six inches more?

48-72 hours away....We will see models go north then crash south as our emotions rise and crash too.

No way to know for sure exactly how it will play out..YET

Still 12-18 inches expected at my second home in Liberty NY where I'll ride this out.

Just now, Snow88 said:

Temps are near 30 for the whole storm for NYC

Anthony, how about JFK?

Heading upstate to Liberty NY in Sullivan County on Friday @ 1,600 feet. Can I expect mainly snow there, over a foot? Is this storm elevation based too?

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

I begin to worry if nothing appreciable happens before daily highs begin to rise during the 2nd week of February.

Liberty NY at 1,500" half inch of snow

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That was 1-28-77. 

1977-01-28	44	13	28.5	-4.3	36	0	0.02	0.2	2
1977-01-29	13	1	7.0	-25.9	58	0	0.00	0.0	2

Thanks ! That was the event I remember, I was a week off

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Positive.  Here is a handwritten log with a few observations from central park for that event on 2/2/1976.

 

 

WOW, I take your word for it.

I do remember a flash freeze in Brooklyn during the first week of February in 1977. I remember because "ROOTS" was on ABC, and a powerful squall line came in with a huge drop in temps, 60MPH winds and 2 inches of snow. Wish I knew the exact date though. Again, great notes, I did the same in my youth before auto recording PWSs

14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

One correction to my own post. I pretty sure there was a snow day on 2/2/1976.  2" of snow that started at 6am and ended at 9am, but the flash freeze that was involved made it a good call.

Are you sure that wasn't 2.2.77?

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just too difficult to get a 6 inch of greater snowstorm in both Nov and Dec near the coast. We saw this most recently back in 2012. During all the seasons with a 6 inch or greater Nov snowstorm, none followed up with another as soon as December. But all the seasons had further such storms later in the season.

Years with Nov 6”+ snowstorm near the coast

2018

2012........1 event in Feb 2013

1938........1 event in Jan 1939

1898........2 events in Feb 1899

1882........2 events in Feb 1883

How about Thanksgiving's snowstorm from 1989?

6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

go here...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

Got it ! Thanks so much !

6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I was 17 in 1966 and it was a very good year...now I'm in the Autumn of the year...Frank Sinatra from 1966...that storm changed to sleet in the afternoon that kept accumulations down...

That storm intrigued me, is there an accumulations map for that storm?

30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

 

1966...snow falls from 7am 12/24 to 6am 12/25...7" fell...

...

This 12.24.66- 12.25.66 snowstorm is my earliest recollection of snow as an 8 YO kid. I knew the day before it was going to snow, I was up very early that Sat morn to watch the first flakes fall.

Watching all those apartment bldg courtyards get snow covered was quite a treat.

48 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC's monthly max/min since 1876...the most amazing stat is December 2015 never getting below 34 degrees for the month...November hath 60 days that year...

.............January.....February.....March......April.........May........June...........July.........August..September.. October....November.. December... Annual

year..max/min.max/min.max/min.max/min.max/min.max/min..max/min...max/min.max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min
1876....68 12.....56 05.....66 09.....69 29......87 36......92 49.......98 61......93 57......87 49.......74 32........73 19........49 03......98 05
1877....47 11.....58 17.....57 10.....76 30......88 37......89 52.......92 58......90 64......85 48.......76 38........68 24........59 20......92 11
1878....51 07.....56 07.....69 13.....76 42......84 40......89 49.......94 63......90 59......90 45.......80 39........60 29........60 13......94 07
1879....52 -4......52 09.....69 18.....76 25......86 42......92 47.......98 58......92 55......87 43.......85 29........76 16........64 10......98 -4...95.5.....4.8

1880....65 17.....69 07.....72 14.....80 26......96 35......94 48.......91 59......89 55......89 50.......79 35........68 13........49 -6.......96 -6
1881....41 01.....53 -3......54 22.....81 21......93 39......88 49.......90 62......96 56....101 53.......87 34........68 23........67 18.....101 -3
1882....49 -6......58 13.....64 18.....73 27......80 38......92 55.......93 58......90 57......87 48.......75 42........69 20........51 10......93 -6
1883....45 01.....54 13.....60 08.....68 25......82 42......91 56.......95 58......89 55......79 43.......80 35........68 21........55 -1.......95 -1
1884....48 04.....56 04.....63 05.....69 32......86 42......91 49.......90 61......91 57......91 52.......82 33........61 24........59 -3.......91 -3
1885....60 05.....46 -2......58 07.....81 27......87 42......92 51.......99 59......91 50......84 44.......73 35........69 25........60 15......99 -2
1886....54 02.....52 -4......62 08.....84 30......86 44......84 52.......94 59......90 53......87 45.......78 33........71 27........55 13......94 -4
1887....62 04.....63 13.....49 15.....79 24......87 45......91 52.......96 64......89 51......85 40.......77 29........64 17........58 11......96 04
1888....54 00.....52 01.....58 06.....83 28......84 40......96 51.......89 54......94 53......80 40.......66 33........72 17........55 09......96 00
1889....57 15.....49 03.....61 25.....78 34......91 42......91 52.......89 58......87 55......82 46.......73 32........63 25........64 13......91 03...95.2....-1.8

1890....64 15.....68 16.....71 07.....79 29......81 41......90 54.......98 55......91 52......88 45.......75 37........69 19........49 13......98 07
1891....54 17.....59 14.....58 09.....80 29......82 32......97 54.......90 60......98 59......91 54.......86 35........64 14........66 14......98 09
1892....59 09.....50 14.....56 17.....80 31......81 42......95 58.......97 57......93 60......84 49.......76 37........67 25........58 11......97 09
1893....52 01.....54 05.....50 15.....72 35......85 43......95 54.......94 56......93 56......82 44.......78 34........60 26........59 13......95 01
1894....57 16.....50 01.....67 20.....75 25......85 46......93 48.......96 56......87 53......93 43.......70 39........65 23........60 08......96 01
1895....51 11.....46 -4......58 15.....86 31......96 39......96 54.......95 57......92 52......97 47.......70 37........72 26........60 13......97 -4
1896....49 -2......57 -5......60 14.....90 24......92 45......92 52.......93 60......98 57......89 46.......72 36........72 29........57 09......98 -5
1897....55 06.....51 19.....60 19.....77 24......81 40......89 49.......93 64......89 61......93 45.......87 39........68 23........63 17......93 06
1898....56 10.....58 08.....69 26.....74 26......86 40......94 54.....100 57......93 59......93 52.......81 41........66 25........57 13....100 08
1899....53 07.....53 -6......63 19.....78 28......88 48......95 57.......95 59......94 60......86 45.......79 38........64 31........59 09......95 -6...96.7.....2.6

1900....57 10.....57 05.....55 11.....74 30......90 40......92 55.......97 56......96 59......92 50.......80 38........74 30........59 04......97 04
1901....53 08.....42 14.....53 12.....80 36......85 44......95 53.....100 61......92 63......88 47.......75 38........60 19........60 17....100 08
1902....51 13.....54 14.....67 23.....84 37......86 38......88 50.......90 60......89 57......87 50.......74 39........69 34........55 08......90 08
1903....51 10.....62 04.....70 28.....82 29......89 37......81 52.......95 57......89 54......88 47.......76 36........70 19........54 11......95 04
1904....54 -1......53 02.....65 15.....72 27......89 46......93 53.......94 59......88 55......86 41.......79 32........60 23........51 12......94 -1
1905....53 04.....41 06.....73 14.....75 33......81 41......91 52.......96 63......92 60......88 47.......82 39........64 20........59 20......96 04
1906....62 14.....58 08.....55 16.....77 32......90 44......94 54.......92 60......94 65......90 50.......74 40........65 29........59 12......94 12
1907....64 04.....47 06.....74 18.....74 28......85 40......90 48.......91 64......92 59......86 49.......74 36........61 33........57 22......92 04
1908....50 08.....52 01.....72 19.....79 28......88 44......94 55.......96 63......94 55......81 52.......80 40........62 28........64 24......96 01
1909....57 05.....56 08.....64 23.....80 24......83 41......93 55.......93 57......92 57......82 51.......77 37........73 31........53 06......93 05...94.7.....4.9

1910....48 05.....56 01.....78 25.....80 37......82 48......90 50.......94 64......86 57......92 57.......84 37........63 29........54 11......94 01
1911....56 18.....51 14.....64 13.....77 24......86 37......88 58.....100 60......94 55......86 46.......73 38........69 25........63 19....100 13
1912....54 -3......59 -1......68 15.....79 29......89 45......94 51.......97 59......92 51......91 39.......81 40........72 28........64 18......97 -3
1913....63 18.....62 11.....77 12.....82 33......89 36......93 49.......95 58......95 60......86 45.......77 34........72 30........58 19......95 11
1914....58 -5......53 -3......73 15.....82 27......95 40......92 49.......91 56......94 60......95 42.......83 33........76 22........64 03......95 -5
1915....58 12.....58 13.....59 19.....92 29......79 43......90 47.......93 59......89 55......94 45.......79 37........71 31........57 13......94 12
1916....69 07.....60 02.....65 07.....70 32......81 44......84 51.......94 60......95 56......93 44.......86 40........71 25........63 17......95 07
1917....51 08.....55 00.....62 20.....83 28......84 38......89 55.....100 59......98 58......84 43.......73 32........63 19........47 -13...100 -13
1918....53 -4......59 -6......76 17.....78 32......91 43......94 49.......98 57....104 59......81 46.......78 41........66 30........63 22....104 -6
1919....61 10.....52 17.....67 24.....73 22......92 43......95 52.......99 60......91 57......93 49.......87 39........72 28........61 -1.......99 -1...97.3.....1.6

1920....51 -1......47 -2......71 13.....76 28......82 39......94 50.......91 55......91 57......88 45.......84 37........69 25........58 16......94 -2
1921....57 04.....62 10.....84 26.....79 29......89 43......95 53.......95 62......95 55......96 56.......77 35........73 30........59 07......96 04
1922....50 07.....64 -2......76 17.....86 32......85 44......91 52.......92 60......94 53......93 44.......89 33........67 28........57 12......94 -2
1923....53 09.....44 07.....76 10.....87 12......86 37......98 53.......99 59......92 51......86 48.......74 39........65 29........64 23......99 07
1924....57 05.....46 10.....66 24.....73 27......75 44......91 51.......95 57......99 55......95 46.......81 34........71 19........61 11......99 05
1925....45 -2......62 12.....71 11.....84 32......91 41......99 54.......94 56......92 54......88 46.......77 29........67 25........58 08......99 -2
1926....54 05.....51 08.....67 13.....82 27......83 40......89 48.....100 56......96 57......89 50.......82 36........66 24........49 08....100 05
1927....52 -1......56 22.....69 18.....90 33......79 44......89 50.......92 54......83 54......92 50.......90 43........73 27........68 15......92 -1
1928....58 12.....55 07.....69 18.....80 29......79 41......86 54.......94 60......94 60......85 43.......86 32........73 22........60 19......94 07
1929....62 08.....56 15.....77 12.....89 34......93 42......95 45.......95 55......92 57......99 44.......74 35........76 12........56 13......99 08...96.6.....2.9

1930....64 10.....75 07.....63 18.....76 31......91 45......94 50.....102 57......96 55......88 52.......78 36........66 15........58 10....102 07
1931....56 11.....56 12.....58 29.....71 35......93 40......97 55.......97 64......99 61......99 49.......86 42........73 30........68 20......99 11
1932....70 24.....58 18.....63 15.....78 32......90 42......92 47.......92 59......91 62......96 42.......79 40........61 12........63 11......96 11
1933....61 13.....60 11.....59 16.....78 33......90 46......97 48.....102 54....100 60......90 52.......78 32........69 17........55 -6.....102 -6
1934....58 06.....42 -15....71 13.....77 34......90 46....101 56.......98 62......89 52......87 51.......77 36........74 26........61 11....101 -15
1935....58 -1......59 04.....77 18.....82 32......89 43......89 55.......95 62......93 55......82 43.......77 38........73 24........56 08......95 -1
1936....54 -3......51 01.....70 17.....81 30......92 44......90 54.....106 60......96 59......91 46.......77 28........75 17........63 13....106 -3
1937....66 25.....57 14.....61 19.....72 34......93 45......93 56.....100 58......95 57......93 45.......79 34........67 28........63 18....100 14
1938....57 06.....60 12.....77 09.....89 28......81 41......90 47.......93 57......96 62......86 51.......90 42........78 16........61 19......96 06
1939....55 06.....69 14.....73 16.....86 30......96 43......94 56.......94 59......94 62......88 48.......91 35........67 29........61 13......96 06...99.3.....3.3

1940....54 07.....54 15.....63 16.....67 26......83 44......94 52.......98 57......90 52......92 42.......80 30........71 25........62 11......98 07
1941....47 10.....49 14.....58 15.....87 36......96 39......98 54.......98 62......97 55......93 46.......94 37........72 31........62 14......98 10
1942....57 05.....52 06.....69 33.....91 33......92 47......89 52.......97 59......93 54......93 42.......84 38........74 26........58 -4.......97 -4
1943....56 10.....63 -8......72 07.....78 24......89 41......99 56.......93 52......94 56......91 46.......83 40........66 26........57 10......99 -8
1944....62 12.....60 13.....62 16.....80 26......92 47......93 50.......94 61....102 56......97 50.......88 36........69 29........53 12....102 12
1945....55 02.....58 15.....86 26.....83 35......84 41......97 44.......96 58......93 53......91 44.......80 38........72 25........54 10......97 02
1946....62 05.....63 12.....79 26.....78 34......87 43......91 47.......94 56......89 53......90 47.......87 45........71 30........70 16......94 05
1947....63 12.....50 07.....63 21.....79 33......86 35......90 52.......94 60......95 60......89 41.......85 36........61 27........58 17......95 07
1948....45 00.....59 06.....74 09.....75 32......87 45......92 52.......94 59....103 60......89 49.......80 36........74 33........58 10....103 00
1949....61 20.....73 17.....75 18.....79 36......92 45......96 52.....102 62....100 55......87 48.......88 42........74 23........63 21....102 17...98.5.....4.8

1950....72 16.....51 06.....67 11.....76 26......82 40......95 48.......94 60......88 57......87 41.......86 38........84 28........60 09......95 06
1951....64 11.....64 11.....62 24.....84 37......90 45......89 51.......94 61......91 56......85 41.......84 42........68 22........64 08......94 08
1952....60 08.....51 17.....64 23.....82 34......83 43....100 58.......97 62......90 54......94 52.......80 33........73 28........59 12....100 08
1953....57 21.....67 14.....67 18.....77 35......90 44......97 51.....101 57....100 59....102 49.......82 40........73 30........63 15....102 14
1954....56 07.....71 11.....68 22.....78 23......85 42......92 54.....100 60......92 58......88 49.......87 38........64 32........61 16....100 07
1955....50 13.....61 00.....71 19.....84 33......90 41......88 51.....100 65....100 61......83 50.......83 41........68 16........53 05....100 00
1956....48 14.....59 14.....63 18.....84 33......89 38......99 53.......93 57......93 58......87 41.......84 38........71 22........67 16......99 14
1957....60 00.....60 18.....69 24.....85 33......87 39......96 51.....101 57......95 57......91 41.......79 35........66 28........59 18....101 00
1958....51 12.....49 03.....57 27.....78 29......82 42......89 49.......93 63......91 58......89 46.......83 39........65 18........55 12......93 03
1959....61 14.....52 07.....71 20.....83 34......94 43......97 53.......90 62......91 58......93 46.......88 36........73 21........56 09......97 07...98.1.....6.7

1960....54 17.....65 18.....70 14.....87 35......82 42......89 55.......91 60......91 58......90 54.......82 38........69 30........64 08......91 08
1961....55 05.....65 -2......73 18.....82 34......85 41......96 53.......97 62......93 57......95 49.......84 40........78 31........58 14......97 -2
1962....56 11.....56 04.....79 11.....91 34......99 42......93 54.......96 57......91 56......88 42.......85 34........62 28........68 04......99 04
1963....51 04.....51 -2......79 26.....81 34......86 38......96 54.......98 54......88 53......87 40.......83 38........69 34........55 11......98 -2
1964....55 09.....52 19.....75 22.....86 28......94 43......99 51.......99 61......92 54......92 48.......78 33........71 24........60 17......99 09
1965....55 09.....61 13.....61 21.....80 29......94 46......95 52.......93 58......91 50......92 44.......81 32........71 31........63 18......95 09
1966....62 08.....58 08.....67 25.....73 34......85 36....101 52.....103 61......94 61......91 46.......78 36........70 31........66 14....103 08
1967....68 13.....60 04.....72 08.....81 29......81 39......96 48.......90 60......90 58......87 45.......86 35........65 20........62 20......96 04
1968....50 -1......49 05.....76 15.....82 32......80 42......94 53.......98 60......94 57......87 53.......85 36........77 32........60 09......98 -1
1969....48 11.....44 17.....70 19.....86 29......97 47......96 55.......96 60......94 58......93 51.......80 31........67 26........60 14......97 11...97.3.....4.8

1970....51 03.....57 09.....56 20.....82 31......93 38......91 57.......94 65......94 62......94 47.......80 36........67 21........66 17......94 03
1971....46 04.....66 06.....69 26.....76 33......85 45......93 55.......96 64......92 55......91 49.......78 45........75 26........63 20......96 04
1972....62 05.....62 09.....73 17.....86 26......86 45......86 46.......94 56......94 57......92 50.......74 32........68 21........61 19......94 05
1973....66 10.....58 07.....66 30.....86 33......82 41......95 58.......94 58......98 59......96 47.......82 41........77 30........66 17......98 07
1974....66 06.....61 11.....70 20.....89 28......92 40......95 52.......95 59......92 59......88 43.......77 31........81 26........56 26......95 06
1975....63 15.....58 16.....64 16.....74 27......93 45......93 53.......93 58......98 57......81 46.......83 31........78 34........61 16......98 15
1976....56 -1......70 10.....72 19.....96 25......83 38......92 50.......90 58......94 50......89 47.......73 29........61 17........55 09......96 -1
1977....44 -2......57 08.....81 24.....90 25......92 36......88 50.....104 58......93 57......94 52.......70 40........65 29........56 13....104 -2
1978....58 12.....41 10.....65 14.....82 31......90 38......91 51.......95 58......92 60......86 45.......76 36........70 24........67 19......95 10
1979....63 08.....57 00.....76 20.....81 32......94 45......87 48.......95 53......95 55......90 45.......88 36........73 29........65 20......95 00...96.5.....4.7

1980....60 17.....57 12.....59 10.....76 32......90 46......94 47.....102 61......97 64......96 45.......79 37........71 28........64 -1.....102 -1
1981....49 02.....68 08.....77 17.....81 33......87 44......93 58.......96 62......92 59......89 47.......71 38........72 29........58 20......96 02
1982....58 00.....58 19.....60 22.....82 21......84 49......87 52.......98 60......89 50......87 54.......81 38........79 27........72 17......98 00
1983....58 12.....59 14.....68 25.....85 34......79 41......95 52.......98 61......96 59......99 49.......84 36........69 32........59 04......99 04
1984....57 07.....63 17.....58 13.....78 35......85 43......96 49.......91 59......92 60......86 44.......79 41........69 25........70 25......96 08
1985....58 -2......75 14.....82 22.....88 28......87 43......85 55.......92 61......95 62......94 49.......80 36........77 33........55 15......95 -2
1986....63 08.....48 18.....78 15.....82 35......94 41......91 49.......98 55......89 50......89 45.......84 38........73 22........59 19......98 08
1987....57 08.....52 04.....76 15.....77 31......97 43......96 56.......95 60......94 56......85 49.......72 37........77 18........60 08......97 04
1988....53 05.....62 09.....76 17.....73 35......91 44......98 50.......99 53......99 56......84 49.......79 31........67 32........60 05......99 05
1989....61 11.....67 15.....82 13.....77 34......86 43......92 58.......96 60......94 56......94 44.......76 40........70 23........53 06......96 06...97.6.....3.5

1990....66 24.....65 07.....85 13.....91 33......83 44......89 50.......95 57......93 58......89 44.......84 35........78 30........62 21......95 07
1991....55 10.....70 14.....77 24.....90 36......93 47......97 53.....102 63......94 62......93 44.......80 38........74 29........66 13....102 10
1992....62 11.....64 14.....64 17.....81 31......93 40......87 52.......93 59......91 57......86 44.......78 34........71 29........61 19......93 11
1993....64 21.....56 07.....68 13.....79 35......92 46......95 51.....102 65......94 62......93 44.......80 38........74 29........66 13....102 07
1994....55 -2......62 07.....71 21.....84 34......91 44......98 54.......97 64......91 57......88 53.......75 43........76 25........65 19......98 -2
1995....64 15.....54 06.....72 20.....76 23......87 44......95 54.....102 60......96 62......91 50.......86 42........72 24........55 15....102 06
1996....56 06.....62 05.....63 11.....85 33......96 42......88 54.......89 62......90 61......89 50.......76 40........69 23........63 15......96 05
1997....62 04.....72 19.....68 25.....74 28......83 43......93 49.......97 58......93 60......83 48.......85 37........65 27........54 17......97 04
1998....65 14.....58 17.....86 19.....73 36......87 44......92 52.......93 62......91 58......90 49.......74 42........63 36........75 17......93 14
1999....60 09.....62 14.....74 17.....80 35......89 46......94 57.....101 61......98 59......83 50.......75 39........72 28........63 19....101 09...97.9.....7.1

2000....64 03.....64 19.....69 22.....75 30......93 46......92 49.......89 58......90 57......84 43.......79 36........67 23........62 14......93 03
2001....54 18.....61 16.....57 24.....87 34......92 43......91 50.......94 56....103 63......86 50.......81 37........75 34........71 20....103 16
2002....69 21.....63 19.....72 19.....96 30......86 41......92 53.......96 61......98 60......91 54.......84 36........68 24........60 19......98 19
2003....50 07.....50 08.....69 11.....88 30......79 45......93 50.......94 63......91 61......80 50.......77 36........79 29........58 21......94 07
2004....58 01.....59 15.....70 24.....85 29......87 42......91 56.......87 63......90 58......87 51.......75 44........68 29........59 11......91 01
2005....66 05.....56 16.....63 16.....87 37......79 41......93 54.......97 62......99 65......92 50.......80 39........72 22........55 14......99 05
2006....64 16.....62 15.....74 22.....83 33......88 45......91 52.......95 61......97 60......83 49.......79 37........69 35........70 18......97 15
2007....72 09.....49 08.....78 11.....86 30......91 44......91 54.......92 57......92 56......88 50.......87 38........66 26........61 20......92 08
2008....64 12.....68 10.....63 27.....84 33......83 44......96 57.......96 66......90 58......90 51.......75 41........67 23........67 13......96 10
2009....47 06.....65 12.....70 12.....92 34......86 43......84 50.......86 58......92 62......84 49.......74 37........69 35........66 16......92 06...95.5.....9.0

2010....57 13.....46 17.....74 29.....92 40......92 41......93 57.....103 61......96 61......96 54.......75 42........65 34........60 19....103 13
2011....53 06.....67 15.....77 20.....83 35......89 46......95 56.....104 63......94 59......86 51.......84 33........70 36........62 22....104 06
2012....62 13.....62 20.....78 25.....88 38......89 49......94 51.....100 61......91 61......91 53.......78 38........66 31........62 28....100 13

2013....61 11.....55 17.....59 27.....82 33......90 42......92 53.......98 64......90 59......96 47.......86 40........70 23........71 19......98 11

2014....58 04.....56 09.....66 13.....77 31......86 49......89 55.......91 63......90 61......92 52.......77 42........68 22........65 24......92 04.....

2015....56 08.....43 02.....60 12.....80 32......88 48......90 50.......96 64......95 63......97 56.......78 35........74 32........72 34......97 02.....

2016....59 11.....61 -1......79 26.....82 26......92 43......88 52.......96 63......96 61......91 54.......85 38........72 34........60 17......96 -1......

2017....66 14.....70 19.....70 14.....87 37......92 44      94 51.......94 62......92 60......91 54.......83 42........74 24........61 09......94 09.....

2018....61 05.....78 16.....62 27.....82 32......92 48......93 51.......96 62......94 65......93 54.......80 38........71 15.......................96 05.....97.7.....6.9


ave......57 08.....57 09.....68 17.....81 30......88 42......93 52.......95 59......93 57......89 47.......80 37........70 26........60 13......97 04


record..72 25....75 22.....86 33.....96 42......99 49.....101 58.....106 66....104 65....102 57.......94 45........84 36........75 34....106 19
record..41 -6....41 -15....49 03.....67 12......75 32.......81 44.......86 52......83 50......79 39.......66 28........60 05........47 -13.....90-15

Phenomenol stats Uncle ! WOW

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

More on the debate over 1983 precipitation for NYC...

After the initial values had been left undecided, there was a subsequent review in which it was decided to accept them.

The explanation I was sent in an e-mail that concerned this issue is as follows:

It was decided after that call [a teleconference concerning the issue] to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983.

In sum, the 1983 figure of 80.56" is the official record.

Don, which year and amount  for NYC is in 2nd place?

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will be develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities.

Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

Great write up Don, as usual