eaglesin2011

https://youtu.be/yj0nqFxF7H8 I’ll take it! Lol & yes I’m being sarcastic

https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter

So basically nothing new. Lol

What allot of people don’t understand is just a 2-4 inch snow is going to cause allot of issues just because the snow that is on the ground from the plows is almost impossible to move in some places.. just that is going to be a major hassle

Not sure why he is being blasted (hell it may end up being even more in some of the places north of here if the right things come together Its not even his final call .. <—- having more then one call to begin with is ridiculous imo… but anyway moving on…

This is definitely going to be a nowcast storm for the Richmond area for sure.. It’s going to be that close between almost nothing to something very significant… To me the models still haven’t figured out where the dry air is going to go and how much suppression of the storm will happen, its why we are getting the wild swings in amounts in many places.. I still think 3-7 is a great call for the RVA area..

The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Fri night/Sat. The GFS/GEFS is the NW outlier, wrapping significant amounts of moisture and QPF all the way into central VA, while the ECMWF/GEM are farther south and somewhat more suppressed with this moisture. The 00Z NAM is the opposite solution: almost completely dry other than in far southern VA and NE NC. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the sfc high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted sfc trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow) that could begin as early as Friday (but is more probably late Friday night through Saturday morning). For the piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Still think the GFS is too far north with this feature (and keeps it maintained into Sat night even after the coastal low rapidly intensifies), so forecasted snow totals are well below what the GFS depicts over the NW 1/2 of the CWA. This is what really will make it or break it for most of our area..

Again, we don’t want it to move that much more north than it already is.. Dry air would kill us even more .. 3-7 is perfect for me.. I actually would like to be able to get out of my neighborhood in the next week lol

I think 3-7 is a great call at this point imo … It’s going to be all about where the dry slot develops & pushes through… Again, I would rather see this storm go off the mid coast of NC then explode closer to the NC/VA border… We be more in the screw zone here in the Ric that happened .

Imo I would rather the storm just blows up farther south in NC & the precip field expands north.. I’d rather just have a nice average 3 to 6 snowfall then have this move more north but the development hurt us and send dry air into this specific area… I think that is what the models are having a hard time predicting…

3 to 6 inches in the R I C would be significant in my book .. Especially for what is still on the ground in many places …

Yeah.. the GFS still right on the boarder line of a major vs light snow event in RIC..

The RIC is definitely again right on the line of a Major hit & a complete miss.. I was hoping that these early morning models would clarify this all more but it looks like it’s going to take until at least this little clipper goes through tomorrow for the models to come into more of agreement… looking more & more like a southern /beaches storm

Looks like this one is about to wrap up just in time in the RVA area..,Tomorrow is gonna be a real key day, whatever isn’t plowed is going to freeze solid tomorrow night & most likely remain for at least the rest of the work week..

Wow! I just tried to flip a empty soda can into my outside recycling bin…I missed and the soda can slid all the way into the neighbors yard because of the new ice rink out there…

Getting bad quickly.. Heavy freezing rain at 2&5/Short Pump

Looks like about an hour break until the last push around 6-8

Definitely is some frz rain mixing now here in Short pump & 295 hopefully can keep the heavier returns and avoid just plain freezing rain

Changeover is definitely in progress now. More of a fine mix light snow/sleet now 295/shortpump prob 2 to 2.5,inches currently

At least we are missing the dry slots so far ….of course we may want that later…

You want the small flakes if you don’t want it to turn over..Really big ones will mean it’s getting close to turn over most likely

I rather have this as a base then freezing rain .. I’m personally not going to remove it now because of that.. & yeah the sleet line has been going back and forth for awhile now ..Honestly I think we already are mixing.. definitely not just pure snow..

Already turning over near Bristol per reports

Nice steady show here in Glen Allen now.. Hopefully we can stay away from the huge flakes for awhile

First flakes now here in my part of Short Pump/295