Wmsptwx

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

In every thread on here the good posters that make quality contributions day after day are getting attacked…

What a crazy freaking world we live in!

I love ya bro….me and you riding this one out until the bitter end since we’re not on Maryland border.

Im going to be so shitfaced tomorrow that I’ll likely forget about storm until it’s raining outside Monday lol.

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

According to the 0z  Canadian, all of CTP & even DuBois gets virtually shutout.

Congrats to the Lehigh Valley & NJ this run.

Far from a consensus.

What a shit storm that would be lol

Lol everything from too warm to smoking cirrus, models stay hilarious.

Canadian days no snow for anyone lol

And gfs stays very robust.

14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Nah you guys are looking pretty good right now, and I don’t anticipate p-type issues up that far. All guidance/ensembles not named the ICON (furthest north outlier by far currently) has Williamsport near or within the swath of best snows. Euro and GFS ops have had IPT getting 6”+ and GFS has been putting out double digits there the last several runs. 

Thanks man.

27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

0z GFS coming in similar to 18z (and 12z). It may have shifted its 6” line like 10-20miles north in the Sus Valley from 18z, essentially back about to where it was at 12z. Focus on I-80 corridor on north for the axis of heaviest snows has been persistent with that op

0z Canadian looks nice with snow shield placement on the southern 2/3 of PA. Still on the lower side QPF wise and a bit splotchy with its output on accums but it has come a pretty long way from where it was having a very weak system. 

I started this post to comment on the NAM, but ended up commenting on the rest of early 0z guidance in the process. At any rate, NAM at range disclaimers aside… I have noted in the runs today that it seems to be on the colder side of guidance overall. Probably the coldest to be honest. I generally put heavier focus on the high res stuff for thermals (3k NAM, HRRR, etc) when things get in range to start using them. We start setting the boundary during Sunday, basically in the 48-60hr range at this point. So this is going to be really something to watch as we set this event up. The entire NAM column in PA is colder, but where it is especially so is up on the column at the 850 and 925mb level. 850 mb temp difference between NAM vs GFS is huge.

81 hours, where the event is pretty well underway in C-PA (GFS timing a bit faster)

 

Now look at the 850 temps for that frame.

Is the NAM onto something here? I’ll be curious to see if it holds onto anywhere near that cold of a profile as we get closer into range. Just a few degrees is going to make a big difference in this event, especially in the Sus Valley. Even a compromise of the thermal profiles between these two solutions likely get the subforum a decent event… and the GFS solution is still mostly a C-PA snow event anyways with the question mark of changeover delivering decent snows being the southern tier (turnpike corridor and south). The NAM at face value actually implies something that could be a notably >10:1 ratio event with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm deep into central/southern PA. I still feel in PA the heavy swath is a 6-10” type deal, but a NAM solution would be how double digit totals get introduced.

Asking for pawatch and I lol are we too far north or could we get okay totals?

Channeling the spirit of Frank Yankovic and pcn tours to will a region wide warning snow 

22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Oh you real hard. I spend a month building the digital railroad with a sandcastle scoop and you here doin a week. Tell us about digital Rikers Island. When they tossed yo salad, did they use jelly or syrup?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

This is hall of fame level stuff…..atomixwx is my original fav amwx troll.

Too early to judge but don’t want this turning into a sheared out mess like cmc and ukmet have…somebody should at least get to cash in on warning snow 

2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Dose anyone  know if @Blizzard of 93has a drinking problem? He may need our prayers atm.

That was me after too many vodka on the rocks combined with watching Juwan Howard coached Michigan basketball.

15 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Right, but tell me that doesn't look like a lovechild of Chuck Todd and Eric Andre would look like.

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I can’t unsee it now 

Lol 10/10

Who is this east nantmeal clown show? We need more sauss and less sepa posters.

3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I just had a stroke while posting. I hope it kills me.

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Me too, mine came after I saw the euro weeklies

17 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Some wives will be thrilled

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Not mine…she has to like advisory levels

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS is on board with the party starting on the 13th at the end of its 15 day run & the Canadian ensemble is on board as well with the good look as well.

Better tracking days should be ahead.

Called it! You guys can thank me when there’s a warning for 6 to 10 inch warning event week after Valentine’s Day

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Did a Ladybug land on your shoe today? 

Lol….In all seriousness it’s just hopium bc I’m bored and want an event of some sort.

Late February bruiser this year…calling it now. 

It’s raining in the port 

Blizz, where are you brother? We need some snow chances posted stat! 

4 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Weirdest looking “Rex” block being portrayed on the 12z European.  Needless to say, next week isnt a straight-forward warm zonal pattern

That rex block is kinda sexy….what is going on here 

Its like 52/53 here and I love it 

Already better than last winter somewhat…so that’s good.