TheManWithNoFace

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just select the station and time of year.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

Much obliged blue

18 hours ago, Rjay said:

I tried finding it but the search function is a disaster on here.  @bluewavehas this info.

@bluewave can you help me out? Please and thank you. 

Hey everyone I need some help. Many months ago someone posted a chart of annual mean dewpoints at a local observation station over the last several years, if I recall correctly. I need to find that or something similar. Can anyone help?

For those defending the public messaging including phone alerts, when did the alarm bells from mets start going off? As it was unfolding? All morning we saw stratiform rain in eastern PA and northern NJ. As soon as the stream of precipitation moved into CNJ and I started seeing widespread embedded cells moving 45° NW to the NE mean flow I knew we were in for it. But I didn't think why transpired was in the realm of likely possibility and I'm fairly plugged in here. 

People knew Irene and Sandy were coming for days in advance. Dan Zarrow is trying to dance out of it by emphasizing that he was "3 to 6 PLUS" in his forecasting (emphasis on "plus") but come on that doesn't really represent what happened. 

Phone alerts for flash flooding are all good as it's unfolding but the messaging was inadequate leading up. 

Is a stronger storm a more compact storm? Does this brief strengthening cut into rain totals across central/southern NJ tonight?

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing this extreme western movement?

Looks like H5 closer or will close off over PA. 

The 12z euro is 2-5" across the inner and outer coastal plains of NJ tonight if you didn't check. 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I haven't checked in since 2P...  Here's a few 5's in North central NJ today.  Almost 4 at one official NJ climo site.

Walt from where do you get the top map?

Crops are going to get frosted/frozen in the northern mid atlantic next week. Not good. 

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I was looking at the radar this morning and I thought the line of rain would pass thru by noon...since then the rain has been redeveloping just to our south all day...

GFS nailed this storm. 

Would love someone to teach me why the entire moisture plume up the east coast looks like its coming from a "forest fire" in the Gulf. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=12

7 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

6.5" here so far - interior Monmouth.

Lol, so casual. "outperforming everyone by several inches, nbd."

I have 1.1 in Flemington. Next band crossing the Delaware should deliver the goods. Come to dada

Just saw the 6z NAM had none of this in central NJ through 8am. F6 megabust

Pingers on moving already on a line straight daddy from Philly. H8 warm tongue gonna getcha

Radar looks good in PA. Should be arriving in NJ a little early. 

46 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

It's too bad WPC ended that model diagnostic discussion product.

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I remember all the freaking out before the Sunday storm a few weeks ago with the models and their qpf and the immediate metro area all got the totals upton predicted if not more. Its hard to think a potentially long duration event with cold air in place won't get us to 6-9 inches one way or another.  It's also hard to believe an overrunning setup like this won't get decent snow at least up to NYC.    

They were bailed out by ratios. 

Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

not gonna lie boys, i live for the snow thump.

yes yes we are all super enthusiasts who enjoy 2 inch rainstorms, 24 inch snowstorms, and probably a few of you are legally insane and enjoy those days in the winter where it just blows 40 mph of 0% humidity freezer burn air onto your face the entire day.

but more than anything i love that one hour of atmospheric puke.  is it snow?  here's 3"/hr.  is it lightning?  it's falling all around you for the next 15 minutes.

gimme gimme that sweet convection.

awww yissssss.
Uh, 31 in Flemington rn

H5 last 8 runs of the nam for 1pm Thursday. Lot's of moving parts in here. Key features are the departing TPV over southern New England, sticking around long enough in later runs to suppress the height field ahead of the approaching shortwave. Then there's the question of whether we get one consolidated vortmax in the trough or if it breaks into two pieces, bringing the longer duration/colder/flatter scenario. Also worth watching is the energy over the northern Plains and how it wants to interact in trough. SE ridge modelling looks stable here. Snow to sleet to rain for most of NJ, but could easily trend back to the warmer solutions of a couple days ago or a more compressed height field and a harder thump. Lots of moving parts.

H5 

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

HREF snow bands from the 00Z run. Pretty sweet look for LI and a good part of NJ.

Could you tell me where you find this product?

2 hours ago, sctvman said:

 

Who is this dope

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The sleet line made it further inland more west than it did east.  Parents house in Merrick LI never went over but places in Brooklyn did 

Very strange. For a couple hours it was sleeting in Flemington, Nj while snowing in Philly. 

14 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

 

Flflemington130pm straight sleet homey

Just now, HailMan06 said:

Representing Bernardsville here.

Waddup neighbor! I think that makes.at least 5 of us in.Hunterdon and Somerset. 

Wow the Hunterdon/Somerset corridor is well represented here. 5" in Flemington.