TheManWithNoFace

Can we not frost this week pretty please?

@bluewave how do those anomalies compare to May 2020 when we had frosts into mid-May? 

Solid D is western Hunterdon. Six weeks of cold and a -10" departure. 

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I understand about being cautious but the number of closures today is absolutely ridiculous. Roads are still warm from last night plus they are out salting. Doesn’t really turn bitter until well after dinner in most of the metro. (Normal dinner time not City 8-10PM dinner time)

If this thing busted the other way it would've been atrocious north of 78. I think with snow you've got more wiggle room to be wrong, but you don't want to be a little wrong in the wrong direction with ice. 

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

A combination of all three is possible and I believe it happened in one of the ice storms of 94, where actually it even snowed briefly before changing to sleet then rain then freezing rain.

Yep. I was 10 and I remember it like it was last winter. In Mercer county you could walk on top of the snow/ice without leaving a footprint. My father used a spade to carve ice cubes and made a legit igloo

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Anyone agree with me on this?  I had said I thought this storm would rival blizzard of 78 in southeast New England.  While certainly not the long duration of that one snow totals were just slightly lower and winds were right in the 78 ballpark.  Some severe flooding from storm surge.  Again, not the duration of 1978 but in some aspects almost everything that happened in 1978 were concentrated into a 12-18 hour period this time.  I know this probably belongs in the NE thread but I thought it was interesting.

NYC and NNJ and interior spots were SO CLOSE to something more if sfc / upper air had just gotten together a little quicker.

Also, this storm should be a good lesson on Kuchera, 15:1+ ratios.  Heck I saw a pro met even suggesting 20:1.

Good storm and it was ALWAYS targeting CNJ, central / eastern L.I and SE NE with the big totals....sans the terrible performance by GFS.

SIAP but has there been any conclusions on ratio for this one? I'm in Hunterdon County and the snow was like dust. Flakes were always tiny, busted up dendrites. It didn't look like high ratio snow. 

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe even the Poconos? 6 inches there would be a surprise

 

Yeah exactly. Someone posted a graphic about subsidence over Sussex/Morris, I think that's the idea but with a second relative max behind it. 

Interesting that there's snow showers across C and NNJ with no radar returns. We moist. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

So 6 + makes people sad ? How much snow do we have so far this winter???

 Expecting 4" In Flemington which will double my seasonal total. Thrilled!

If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands. 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The atmosphere just seems to be primed for snow.  It's been snowing here all morning, you wouldn't see this kind of stuff if just a front was coming through.  This reminds me of the PRE before TC landfalls.

 

Totally is like that. Not the first time I've seen that acronym tossed around today. Long Atlantic moisture fetch being tossed north towards an aggressive frontal boundary. 

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Sticking pretty close to numbers I put out yesterday morning. 

NYC/Immediate metro: Yesterday 4-8" -> Now going 6 -10"

Far NW NJ: Yesterday 1-3" -> Now going 2-4"

West of I95 8" tapering to 4" starting along and north of 80 and West of 287

South and East of I95: Holding with 12-18" with the 18" amounts closest to the coast and central and eastern L.I.

In general ratios 12:1 - 13:1 give or take.  Maybe 15:1 northern and western edges of snow shield.

Any changes will come from nowcasting as event unfolds.

Currently very light snow with about .10" new snow.

 

So you're only expecting .25qpf in Sussex/Warren co?

Sharper trough, higher heights off the coast. Come on. Do it. 

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I will remind old timers about the EE rule.  When the Euro and ETA were in sync, it was deadly.  For the youngins and as a reminder, the ETA is now the NAM.

DT is the author of the EE rule, and also the weekend rule, which was uncanny for a long time how often they both worked out.

Voodoo?  Maybe.... 

Beat me to it. EE rule in effect!

5 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it.

We stress. 

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i'm getting excited. someone's getting 30+ wherever the band pivots

I agree. Max Baroclinicity + phase + capture = HECS

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Remember this storm is still 4 days out. I don't know why people are acting like the storm track is edged in stone. This could still trend way better or way worse but the bottomline is their is major upside potential for whoever ends up in the jackpot zone.  

What is with all the posts criticizing and analyzing people's behavior while model watching the last week? 

This post above brings zero to the conversation and frankly therefore neither does my responding to it, but can I ask everyone to let the rest of the forum do their thing and reject your inner authoritarian tendencies to tell people how to feel?

"Etched" in stone btw

Mod snow in three bridges. Back roads whitening. Looking for 2". Radar looks good to our SW. 

Grassy surfaces whitening in Bridgewater. Flake structure is ugly.  Not cold enough yet upstairs. 

Flipping in 3 bridges. Late but the radar looks good. Expecting 2 and a snow covered cold winter weekend. Good enough. 

Hunterdon County NJ. By the end of this month it will likely be true that areas of South Carolina are ahead of my seasonal snowfall. I'm about 3" ytd.

19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Also, what is a “KU” storm? Through context I gather it’s a historic or near historic snowstorm with feet of snowfall. But I can’t find a definition and I’ve seen the term used here frequently. 
 

I’m a long time lurker that finally made an account. 

Kocin Ucellini they write the book Northeast Snowstorms. 

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather,

Heres the thing, Walt. If people wanted to get together on a weather forum to talk about partly cloudy and 45F, it's not anyone's prerogative to stop them. This  whole discussion is totally bizarre. Nobody agrees with the other guy, thanks for doing your thing.  

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what exactly is causing such a variance in tracks? Isn't there some kind of error correction code that can be programmed into these models to make them not vary so much?

 

There's subtle input differences that lead to a distinct bifurcation of potential outcomes. 

Looking for the reasoning between the GFSs northward expansion of the precip field, I note a vortmax at H5 held back a bit in the evolution from the trough axis. I think that this keeps mid level confluence from pinching down across the northern mid-Atlantic. I think that's the big difference between the GFS and NAM solution. Also note that Jetstream aloft is unimpressive on all modelling, lending credence to the dryer solutions.