jaf316

A flake falls in bexley! hooray! 

Still pinging in bexley. There might be a few flakes mixed in -- it's hard to tell -- but if there are, they're few and far between 

5 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

I’ve got 5 inches I think lol. Wind keeps blowing it away.

I don't know you, but I now officially hate you (he said as he watched sleet pellets bounce off his window...) 

(kidding, of course -- enjoy the snow!) 

17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

this is the latest hrrr, it's the 18hr panel, (5am), that's 16 hrs from now.     None of us know for sure what the sleet to snow ratio is going to end up.   Feb sleet storm was always on the table but so is a nice snow storm.    More likely a combination that would make us happy to have any other time.     Relax and enjoy the tracking, otherwise why the hell are we here.     

 

x

 

I 

It's been so long since we've had a real winter storm to track that I forgot about this phase of the weather tracking experience: the mass weenie suicides! 

(and just to be clear, no offense to anyone is intended. I'm one of those weenies...) 

Cool to see moisture plume still stretching all the way down to Mexico on the radar. We still have a long way to go with this one. Gfs doesn't show cbus switching over until late afternoon/evening, but still shows a healthy accumulation overnight. 

6 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Surface freezing line is almost to Columbus, as it's passed through Marysville, Delaware and London.  

Cmh still at 40 degrees

40 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

I'm up to loosing officially a foot of snow so far today IMBY with 0.99" of cold rain in the gauge  

I take you for a glass-half-empty kind of guy. Am I right? 

1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

Only model to be consistent. I went with a lowered version of the gfs. Wont be surprised if it's not more. We've not even gotten close to the modeled high. 

Yeah, the GFS has shown virtually the same solution for 11 straight runs. If it ends up being wrong it'll be a pretty epic fail. 

NAM continues to take a dump on our storm -- but it's marginally better. It ups the snowfall in Columbus from 0.3 inches (6z) to 1.6 inches (12z). Progress! 

7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

And, GFS? Looked like less amounts but couldn’t tell if it went NW/SE

Slightly lower amounts for NW OH compared with 18z, but pretty much the same as before for central. 

For what it's worth, the 3k NAM is a bit better for us

I will say that the GFS has been remarkably consistent over the past several runs. Canadian has been a little more all over the place. 

17 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Guess it's gonna be gfs vs cmc. It's a whiff for almost everyone.

Oy, I was hoping for a little more agreement by today...

7 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Idk how reliable it is, it's a short range hi res model, but I've not followed it a bunch. I just loved the way the system looked on that run. 

Yup, that's some sexy weather porn right there... 

11 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Fv3 looks crushing. 

Is the FV3 reliable (I mean, as much as we can consider any weather model "reliable")? 

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't think it's a blip.   I'm trying to keep mby biases out of my thinking but I really believe this continues ticking southeast as the models are starting to make the northern branch quicker and stronger with the high.   We've seen this before.  Unlike an organized storm coming out of the southern states where I'd be worried about a nw last minute shift, this is essentially a pushing arctic boundary with copius overrunning moisture and no wound up low to pull up a warm tongue or phase into something stronger.

 

I think you're right. The pressing high seems to be getting a little bit stronger with every run. Just hope it doesn't get too strong and miss to the south. It's gotta balance at just the right spot for us to jackpot. 

1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

What about the Euro at 0z?

Looks to me like a slight bump north

And GEM bumps NW. Major ice-fest for central OH. 

So there you go... 

Well, if anything the 0z gfs shifted a smidge SE from the 18z position.

And I have a feeling we'll see plenty more smidges between now and Thursday... 

25 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

What was once ours....is yet once more matriculating to the blessed ones up north. What else is new. Maybe next winter will change up our luck. Time to pack up our whopping 3 inches of snow this winter and bring on Spring.

Don't give up hope yet. We still have a few more days of anxious hand-wringing and nervous teeth-gnashing ahead of us before the inevitable happens. And isn't that what it's really all about...? 

11 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Gotta use pivotalweather for those maps. Here is the 6z from there.

Yeah, I know. But I like looking at the pretty colors...

Gfs clown maps on tropical tidbits give us more than a foot and a half -- but they include all frozen precip in 10:1 ratios. And verbatim it's mostly sleet/freezing rain. 

Oy... 

Meanwhile, back on the weather front:  Latest Euro puts us back on the good side (mostly) of the baroclinic zone next week. Worth watching... 

51 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Add this one to your wall from last year!  I think we may have got no snow at all from this eye candy map.

My house would be sitting under a glacier if you totalled up all the virtual snow the GFS has given me over the past few years... 

7 minutes ago, Spartman said:

What a clown map on the 06z GFS! 

I'm gonna frame that and put it on my wall