SnowNiner

Still dry in Mooresville. Precip has been stuck in clt for the last 2 hours. Can't get north. 

Heavier radar returns looking like they've hit a wall at 85 near Charlotte.  Desperately want them to move north...need to cool the column quick. 

1 minute ago, Wow said:

I'm close to downtown, near the Mooresville golf course.

Gotcha, ok I've north of you now. Payback is coming! lol. 

Somehow the golf course ponds will give you more snow still....

3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Same... quite an intense virga storm.  Currently 39.3/28.9

Where are you Wow in Mooresville? I'm 2 miles north of exit 36.  

2 minutes ago, insipidlight said:

This is hours old, they released another at 2:57, downgraded AVL to 10".

Sorry, I had that queued up and didn't update. New one is similar in my backyard. 

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

4 minutes ago, SENC said:

….. 

HRRR still looks good.  For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM.  I'm happy it's on my side.  We'll see. 

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there.

Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.   

Thanks grit, to me that looks improved...keeps 850s around clt through most of the storm. Nws still has me over a foot of snow total. Hopefully the colder models win out here.

1 hour ago, griteater said:

I would just say that it's always a plus to see it on the cold side because if any model is going to be warm in the mid levels it's the HRRR and NAM

Hrrr is usually the crusher of my dreams. Nice to have it wintry for once. Who knows at this point though.

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

The FV3 is going to be put to the test big time with this system. It has been so persistent with totals its almost crazy. A lot of people looking at those numbers are expecting those numbers and could be highly disappointed if it isn't right.

I was about to say the same.  It's on an island by itself.  It's either a genius or a doofus, and every storm in the future we'll know how serious to take that model one way or another. 

I'd love it to be right...

Yeah, I've yielded to the fact that this is a sleet fest with a nice glaze on top.  Shame we had such a nice set up synoptically and can't get a pure snow in CLT.  

Oh, well it's December.  Feels good that we've got at least a storm so stinking early in the season! Let's do this again in about 4 weeks.  With a Miller A, Miller B's suck.  

Seems like great south/cooler trends last night.  I think it's all going to come down to that warm nose, and can the top down cooling fight it off.  That's the difference between just getting the front end thump (6 hours maybe?) and getting the whole storm mostly snow.  WPC is on record saying the warm nose shouldn't be too bad as the winds are coming from the east, not southeast.  I'm guessing that's due to the 850 low being to our south (wish it was further south).  I think the FV3 shows the best case scenerio where the top down cooling keeps the mild warm nose at bay throughout.  The other models just don't yet, but seem to do it more last night.  Hopefully today's runs makes the cooler trend.  Very interested today to see how the RGEM handles the storm.  

Woah!! That's as big as I've seen! please let the other models pick up like that tonight...

If the euro ticks colder too with the 850s and keeps them in the upstate I'll feel much better. Last run it really warmed once the low got to the coast. Great to see gfs and fv3 correcting colder a bit this evening.

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Could definitely see this being a situation in CLT where Davidson/Mooresville see double digits, Huntersville gets 5”, an inch or two at carowinds and freezing rain once you get to Dave Lyle Blvd in RH.

I hope so, l didn't move from Charlotte to Mooresville for nothing! lol. 

It always seems to line up that way. With today's trends I'm doubting a bit even Mooresville sees that much.  That low keeps getting amped and coming tick by tick north.  Eventually I think even Mooresville is a sleetfest. 

13 minutes ago, griteater said:

I just looked thru the NAM, Euro, GFS, and FV3 with the 850 low track and temps, and it's not pretty.  The FV3 is the coldest of the 4 even though its track is comparatively pretty far north....but it maintains the cold aloft the best on the front side of the storm in NC...it's the model to root for with the CLT To RDU crowd.  The other thing to root for is for continued suppression of the southern wave...either via it taking a little bit more of a southerly track or the NE confluence coming in a little stronger.  Anything that tracks the wave just a little farther south will want to make the 850mb low track a little farther south as well.  It's probably a tall task, but that's what is needed.  Here's the 850mb evolution on the FV3 on the front side of the storm:

 

 

Well dang.  

NWS is still full blast on Miller A synoptics I think with snow/rain mainly.  It looks like it's going to just be a big mess/mixed bag south of 40.  

6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Allans map matches up well with my thinking for the Triad region. Im in B and miss A by about 10-15 miles max. But he's spot on. This will be the biggest event since atleast February 28,2004 in Randolph county when we experienced 17-19 inches of snow and January 2000 the crusher witch had most of the county in 13-18 inches of snow.

Hmm, I don't know.  It's not been a trend, but today's runs were pretty poor with their shifting north and turning a bit warmer.  The problem has always been I'm RIGHT on the line.  So no there's not going to be huge changes I don't think.  But a 2 degree change is all the difference for CLT and Raleigh.  Again I don't know if I've actually seen a trend persay, but the EURO (once it hit the coast), GFS, and NAM got warmer.  So I'm not confident until I see something go the other way. 

If Allan put that map out after the 12 runs I'd be surprised. I think they could end up being really high. 

1 minute ago, griteater said:

Euro looks great with the backside northern stream wave dropping in. Light snows down into GA and the upstate on Mon 

It looks like the 850 low goes way south of us off the coast right? Isn't that in itself a good thing? 

At 72, low is a good bit south in Florida, 850s hanging steady at NC/SC line. 

3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

 

I'm surprised by this as well.  All global guidance essentially shows this, except the NAM.  But usually they creep the numbers up closer to the storm.  I don't know, this has the makings of a huge bust, but I hope not.  Forget you NAM!!

15 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

nearly all sleet per 12z nam.

I'm going to wait for the other models today to run before I say that's the trend, all/more sleet in CLT.  Overnight runs were great for CLT.  EURO and UKMET.  I'm certainly not going to give up yet based on the long range NAM.  Saturday morning if it's still saying that, then yes. 

21 minutes ago, Wow said:

All GEFS members in general agreement.. 

I don't recall ever having an ensemble suite ALL show a double digit snowfall totals in MBY.  It's always hits/misses.  This is crazy.  I see the EURO/UKMET/FV3/GFS with huge totals, but then there's the latest NAM, with the sleet fest for the southern piedmont.  That's my concern at this point.  Was hoping that the NAM would show a colder solution, not a warmer one in comparison with the global models.  It makes me think the larger scale models may be off.  

However it's the 84 NAM, I know...but I'll be watching that trend today for sure. It is encouraging that the NWS seems to be going with the Miller A pattern for this storm, and specifically call out that the warm nose should be muted, or cool.  

I'm just really confused right now.  I don't know where the cliff is at the moment, much less jumping from it.  I'm asking pedestrians passing by if they know where it is, but they just keep walking....lol. GSP thinks it's a Miller A (Awesome!), Raleigh says it's going to "evolve" into a Miller B (boo!).  All major models and ensembles have a crushing winter storm for north of CLT.  However models are showing very marginal 850s and surface temps, and monster WAA lurking behind the curtain!.  During the day Sunday looks like it can go to almost 40 degrees.  

Just going to keep riding this emotional roller coaster up and down...from what I can see though, the trends have been good for many on the board today.  I think? 

Here's my forecast in Mooresville.  What warm nose? lol.  I don't know I'm sure I'll probably switch over too, but it's nice at this point that NWS says I may not.  We'll see what tomorrow holds....

5 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH:

Sat through Mon night: A significant wintertime storm for NC is 
growing more likely with every model run. Differences among the 
models regarding timing, track, precip amounts, and the vertical 
thermal structure and advection patterns persist, which makes any 
details still difficult to pin down. But the chance of at least some 
wintry precip over the central NC forecast area with this event is 
growing. 

-Synopsis: A potent mid-upper trough/low will cross the S Plains, 
Gulf States, and Southeast during this period, as a surface low 
tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into 
a Miller B configuration as this energy transfers to a deepening low 
just off the Carolinas late Sun. This low should then intensify as 
it tracks NE just off the NC coast through Mon. A second, strong 
polar stream wave will dive through the Midwest Sat night through 
Sun night and into the southern stream wave, prolonging the lift 
over central NC as the column cools further. 

-Timing: Following the slower ECMWF/Canadian/NAM solution over the 
faster GFS, the heaviest precip is expected to fall from early 
morning to late afternoon on Sun, in conjunction with strong upper 
divergence and mid level DPVA. After this time, drying aloft and 
waning forcing for ascent should mean a trend to lower precip rates. 

-Ptype: Still appears to be mostly a rain event through Sun in areas 
from the Triangle to the S and E, albeit with a little wintry precip 
early in the event. For areas N and W of the Triangle, including the 
Triad and most VA border counties, a wintry mix with some 
accumulation is expected for most of the event through Sun, although 
we may see a trend to mostly cold rain Sun afternoon. Some low level 
drying is expected by Mon, but decent moisture and lift in the -12C 
to -18C depth should result in a secondary chance of some light snow 
or a wintry mix associated with the polar wave. It's too early for 
specific amounts, but an inch or two is not out of the question in 
the Triad region, with a non-zero chance of greater amounts. This 
could change, however, especially given the sensitivity of precip 
types to small changes in thermal structure and lift, so stay tuned.

-Temps: Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sat and Mon, with 
low 30s to upper 40s on Sun. Again, this is all predicated on 
getting enough warm air into central NC to allow surface temps to 
trend above freezing over the forecast area. Lows in the 30s.

Wow, they poo poo'd the whole thing, didn't they? Even for the Triad.  Cold rain trend for the Triad? I'm lost on that one.