north pgh

Just came home from out running errands. My temp is still holding at 33.4. Driving on Mcknight road and about is was 36 in my car. Rain has picked up to moderate. According to everyone here posting most of us from central Allegheny county and east won't be changing until evening. I guess that's good to keep the ice down but I think we will still see the worst ice tonight. The Canadian doesn't have us switching to snow until after 1:00 am and then we get a couple inches tomorrow morning. Blustery and cold tomorrow with snow showers.

I really think the temps are going to hold around freezing until late this afternoon. I think there may be some icing today from west to east but the serious stuff will be after dark. Still holding at 33.2. Heading out for an hour or so. Let's try and get some observations. I would like to see what is going on in our western suburbs where the cold is winning out.

Agree. Let's throw the models out the window and start nowcasting. How about some observations. I was just out and my temp is down to 33.2. Light rain is getting heavier and you can feel the north wind cold. I imagine it will be freezing here before lunch.

Regardless of whether your trolling or not take it to the complaint thread or just don’t post. It’s getting old.

Agree maybe with the cold more chances for Clippers

We are still 36 hours out and unfortunately we are in the anything can happen spot. My guesses as of now. Will change tomorrow. GFS- rain changes earlier tomorrow and a decent amount of ice. lots of sleet then 2-4 snow into late Friday. CMC-rain changes later tomorrow afternoon. a little ice and a lot of sleet then 2-4 inches of snow into late morning Friday. NAM -rain doesn't change over until Thursday evening. light ice and sleet and 1-2 inches by early morning Friday. We all know that the NAM usually wins out on warm air longest so I put my money on the NAM right now but tonight is another night of models. NWS must blend everything so it is going to be a very tough forecast for them so I think we need to take it easy on them. They will be making changes right up to nowcasting Thursday night. I would love to be wrong and get less ice and more snow but I think Thursday night might be a sleet-fest. Who wants boring rain or snow when you can have it all. lol Should be fun to track anyhow.

From NWS Thursday Night Freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow before 11pm, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 22. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Go Euro

Canadian no change. Tomorrow at noon we need to see the models come together somehow. Still a lot of uncertainty.

We need the Canadian to come to the GFS. I still think the NAM has precip issues that hopefully can come back tomorrow.

Nws will drop to advisory overnight if they have to.

Why does this bother you? Whether it is an advisory or warning it’s going to be slick driving.

Just an observation. 0z NAM has the low up in northern New Jersey at 1:00 am Friday and the Gfs and cmc have it in Virginia.

18Z NAM 18Z GFS This is what we are up against Thursday. Who wins?

This seems to always happen with the models lately. They can't come to agreement until the day of. It was weird looking at the 12z GFS and CEM today and seeing that they seem to be 100 miles apart. I'm guessing they will eventually all come together but as always we get sucked into the the best one for us (GFS this time) If it comes down to the rain scenario at 33 mixing and changing to snow let's hope we can score at least 2-4 somewhere in there whether sleet or snow. (This is why we all criticize NWS for being cautious because it is the best thing to do) But it never fails that we all get sucked in days before hahaha!

It’s been a while since we’ve had a big sleet storm. We usually get sleet more than the freezing rain which I will take. Hard to shovel though. Anyway I’ll take sleet over zrain and cold rain. Maybe some big flakes of snow mixing in with the sleet is always fun.

Liking the trends. Time to get some sleep. 12z tomorrow will be big.

CMC 12z Cmc 0Z

Yes time to head out for a while. Tonight's runs will see if the trends continue to look good or **** on our parade. Positive vibes please.

Okay thanks. I get it lol. I just don't think we need the worst case scenario posts ruining these threads. I'm just glad to be back in the game.

I have to respectfully disagree. When you worry about the jackpot city you will always be disappointed. When we received our 20 inch storms in the mid 90's there were people east of me that had 30. Did I worry about that? Not at all. Just trying to stay optimistic.

Canadian is south too. Not as much snow as GFS but it looks to be more snow than in previous runs and maybe a 4 plus or so at end. I know we have three days but you can't not like the trending.

You know what at this point if Youngstown gets 15 inches for us to get 8 I will take it.

It's only Monday but the trends are really good. The cold high pushing down the cold from Canada will at least keep this from cutting. Let's see what the Canadian says. Fingers crossed.