feloniousq

CWG in with the strong "1-10 inches, low confidence" forecast

lol heard the sleet falling and thought my sprinkler system had burst

Hey - a pretty snowfall that I won't have to shovel, because it will all disappear by sundown.  No real threat of the WSW ever verifying, but such is life.

Grass is starting to poke back through even as flakes continue to dump.

I saw a report from Purcellville of 3.6"...seems a bit ambitious but OK

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Snow picking up again here. Looks like a nice band forming again over Leesburg and Western Loudoun

yep rates and flakes picking back up

Good lord, some of these flakes are egg-sized

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Ashburn/Reston getting crushed right now per radar. 

can confirm

6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

That’s because they all generally suck considering how advanced civilization is. 

it makes CWG's "we have low to medium confidence that you will get 2-20 inches" forecasts look reasonable because that's literally what the range of guidance is outputting

3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Its rare for my location to see more than double the snowfall that IAD receives.  So I expect that difference to narrow as we go forward.

A 6.6 inch difference between JYO and IAD is pretty nuts.  That's about 2 miles per inch.

5 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

model runs aren’t forecasts. you know this.

the euro was garbage for this storm.  garbage.  it will be very painful for a lot of worshippers on this forum to acknowledge accordingly.

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I couldn’t get the 6-10 inches generated by NWP for days if you hooked a fire hose up to Ocean City, sucked into the trowal and folded over the trop eight times and aimed it at my house. Remember the RGEM, euro, cmc, ukmet for the trash they put out next time. I won’t invest in another storm in this area until I see the whites of its eyes! 

some people here will not like this one bit

Just now, Round Hill WX said:

Considering that model run initiated 6 days from the event and was only off by 150 miles, I would consider that pretty damn good. If you think it sucks, just ignore the EURO from here on out and you’ll be good. And hit up Howard, you guys will be good buds. 

How about the model run last night that had both you and me with 9.5”, 6” coming from the WAA? 
 

Any time a WSW fails to verify, it’s a bust, period

2 hours ago, MDstorm said:

How about this Euro run from last week for this storm? 

Yea I think “King Euro” is downgraded to a Baron of some place out in the sticks.  This was a big ol’ bust.

21 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

Rates and flake size noticeably improved in the last 10-15 min in Ashburn

...and now back to flizzle

Rates and flake size noticeably improved in the last 10-15 min in Ashburn

watch

watch watch

watch watch watch

Congrats to the itty bitty piece of Loudoun at the edge of the bridge to Point of Rocks, which is the only place south of the Potomac that the HRRR thinks ever gets a p-type of snow 

20 minutes ago, George BM said:

Not an expert opinion but that line of convection across Kentucky looks more organized than most CAMs have it which may signify stronger WAA just ahead of it which may help us get a stronger thump.

 

A coworker in Cincinnati says it’s been pouring rain all day, heavier than expected

It is very, very wet.  Like white mud.  This is gonna be a nightmare tomorrow morning on refreeze.

Mulch is whitening, grass and deck following

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I have to drive to Reston at 3 hopefully its snowing there by then

I left Reston about 30 min ago and it was ~50/50 snow/rain then so should be fine.  Car thermometer dropped from 46 to 36 driving from Reston to Ashburn.  Flake size and rates are trying to increase in Ashburn, but everything still just wet.

35 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Just wanted to say: I think all of us can acknowledge this “busted” for a 45% tornado risk day. However, the potential was there, and I don’t think many could begrudge the SPC for issuing it given what everything looked like pre-initiation.

 

Days like today really make you appreciate just how unique the major outbreak days are! The subtlest thing being off can put the lid on what otherwise could have been a ridiculous outbreak of violent tornadoes. 

i just don’t understand why many have the urge to call everything a bust as soon as possible though. It’s not productive. If you want to critique, that’s fine. I’m here for all of your expertise and want to see actual technical discussion of that. However, you’re not contributing to a discussion of the event by calling “bust” every 15 minutes.

Every set-up, no matter how high-end, plays out differently, and it was absurd to be calling it one of the “worst busts ever” as we had four tornado warned discrete cells going on in the southern part of the risk area. We’ve seen several set-ups look like crap, then do something big later in the afternoon/evening. We may even end up with a 30% contour verifying after storm surveys somewhere in the Red River valley. It wasn’t what we expected, but it wasn’t a complete cap bust with no tornado reports either. 

I definitely don't begrudge SPC for issuing it.  I think there's room to begrudge SPC/NWS for forcememing it as the second coming of April 2011.

King Euro might be knocked down to knave after this.

Pinging