feloniousq

8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

If the NAM + RAP combo pulls this out, imagine moving forward calling those models King NAM and King RAP!? Oooof. That just feels really weird. Maybe we go Queen instead?

RAP god

59 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro by precip type.  

That's French for "rain"

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The professionals would disagree 

 

The “professionals” have had a rough few months

still coming down, despite nothing on the radar

Lol CWG says “looks like those lower amounts might verify tee hee!”

Grass and mulch have caved.  Roads are just wet. 34F

stop hugging the models, kiddos.  go look out the window.

out of nowhere, bigger flakes and rates

lol finally some microscopic pixie dust

1 minute ago, Clueless said:

Snow TV continues in Sterling.  

Still haven't seen a single flake three miles away.  What I do see is buds on the dogwoods and 38 degrees.

nary a flake in Ashburn.  this might want to get started soon if it's going to "mess up the evening commute."

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I wanted to wait to post this after the models confirmed what I've known all along but I didn't want to post until they showed what I was thinking. 2" for my back yard...sorry folks just saying what I knew would happen but wanted to wait to say it.

so you're Leesburg to Sykesville to Broadlands to Aldie?  which "back yard"?

20 minutes ago, Amped said:

One hell of a cutoff running along I95 especially near NYC

just a 1"-30" range for America's largest city 60 hours out, what could go wrong?  models rule

LWX's advisories and forecasts don't match very well at the moment

1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

3k also shows slight bump NW, but it was farther NW than 12k last run, so that checks out. 

8 inch difference between JYO and IAD is pretty rough

49/38

short. pump. jack.

the tiniest of flakes along 66 near the bridge

starting to mix in Ashburn

yea there's a sleet pellet here or there but this is 75-80% plain rain

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Traffic cams around Dulles look like wet snow, but it is hard to tell.

I doubt it is snowing at Dulles.  I am 9 mi NW and it has been sleet/freezing rain with the freezing rain predominating for the last 30-45 min

some sort of sleet/rain mix in Ashburn

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, big takeway from this winter is the Euro is not what it used to be. Not sure if there was an update that improved forecasting in another domain at the sacrifice of North America, but man it's been hot garbage this winter.

it has also exposed just how many forecasters basically just use the Euro output as their forecast

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Cue the inevitable bashing of the models since they weren't verbatim and trends went the wrong way for this sub ...

"Verbatim" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.  They might as well have been sampling a different country.

The question might not be if we get below 32 for this "event," it might be if we get below 37.