CoastalWx

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

April 29th  is the warmest day on the EPS through the 4th and its not a torch by any means 

It’s muted on an ensemble mean. That’s pretty warm if it already has that. H5 is a warm look.

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z EPS is 50's and 60's   not even close to a furnace

It looks warm after the 28th.

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Spring sucks.

April is AN. I’ll take it.

Gfs is the coldest Thursday 

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than the op GFS every single piece of guidance got rid of that cold shot idea lol. It’s a day of temps near 60 now .Before furnace 28th and on 

https://x.com/clarkkenwxman/status/1781393248600383664?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

We knew 

Man we euro. Let’s go.

Stein weak muscles ftl. We rain. 

Stein here. We dry.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually ... 3 or 4 days may be spinning that, too.   The ensembles, all three sources, really don't lift that formulating cold pattern out of the eastern continent until after D10! 

We'll just have to hope the models are - as usual - shorting the solar/seasonal forcing, whereby they end up over amplified out in time.  There is some possibility this corrects toward something less extreme.

 

EPS from 18z Wed until Saturday morning is BN. Then we warm after. 

36 hr mild down and back to warmth.

Stein here. It's understood that Kevin Wood sells Steinifornication.

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He here 

Epic sunrise right now

Yeah we don't plant until Mid May at least.

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

4 years ago today. 

Yep. Largest amount that I can recall this late in the season. 

Ineedsnow is tracking it.

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I think almost all are done south of the MA/NH border except in places like Pete’s. 

They’ll be some next week.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

34 ?  heh

Not likely that your garden's nut sack tickles 32, no ... but, big high, null wind, DPs of 24 or whatever will likely radiate the interior into problem territory, if the overnight guidance were correct, as is.

Short version, there's a fair chance it won't actually be as cold as the overnight guidance.  

Longer, is the whole attenuation game ...  Models tend to oversell just about everything they see out in time.  It's gotten worse over the last 10 or years - roughly around the time all this exotic computing power/speed surged.  interesting.  But it seems almost perfunctory to assume all cold waves, hot waves, storm amplitude ... hell, the connections I make on my dating apps ... just go ahead and assume some 10 to 50% less inspiring actually happens.  

Seasonal forcing in spring has always tended to cause cool bias errors in extended range modeling.  That's been there long before this recent model attenuation thing.  So combining those two aspect...   Kevin will now undoubtedly interpret this exchange as an install affirmation and temperatures approaching 90 

I'm just referring to my local area. No doubt others will for sure. 

Hell congrats DC on 4/26.  

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The sun won't be denied though.  Even if the ambient temperature is held into the upper 40s ... when the wind is light and the sky is open, the sun has a way of offsetting that significantly.

Sometimes it helps to compare against the mirror season to put sol into perspective... This is the same sun as ~ August 24th today, and August 19 by this weekend.

A few cool days and then we warm. I’m not hitting 32 here.

What a morning. Awesome to think last sub 32 was in March. Thank you CC.

50 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yep. Felt good.

74 here today. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty nice next 10 days with 60’s and 70’s 9 out of 10 days and Stein 

Solid nice spring overall. 

Could be BN for a few days next week but not by much. Decent overall.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why didn’t you run?

I’m going to run to help fund more server space for this effing site. 

Beautiful day along the marathon route today. It’s like one big party. I miss marathon Mondays in my 20s.