CoastalWx

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You have admitted an affection for Ray. I get it’s for a variety of reasons. It’s fine. You’d never , ever pick this over his. And it’s because you hate giving me any satisfaction. I get it and am fine with it 

I'll call it as I see it. But since you are like the human NAM and we need to slash your amounts by 1/3...that's what we do. You probably have equal chances for amounts...maybe someone differs by a small amount...that will be due to how the precip is aligned and collapses to the south. I don't think it is due to elevation. 

Just now, powderfreak said:

The thing that’s going to help you actually looks to be the second low tracking so far south and the precip on some of these actually looks like it collapses from NY State through CT to Long Island and SE from there.

He's got PTSD from being dumbfounded in 07-08. So he hates the term latitude. 

That’s not true. I love the srn CT jacks. Those are fun to call because nobody sees them coming.

Ray>Kevin

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I noticed that too.  

Odd how it had a colder profile aloft over the South Shore (maybe due to the stronger precip at the time?), but I still think the low levels are quite marginal.  But if it's ripping at -7C at 850mb you'd think that's a flip to snow.

11AM Friday and the coldest H85 temps were basically south shore?

The weenie force of Weymouth is strong. 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yup...too dam bad this wasn't coming along then. 

Maybe it will!

I know I said this yesterday, but hell of a winter event even a month from now. 

Not a bad look. Siggy difference from other guidance. 

Just now, powderfreak said:

GGEM says we got a shot, ha.

 

The bump north with part 1 is actually better for you guys. 

No help from the GFS with part 2, but part 1 more robust for the drought duo in SE MA.

Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

Gene can chime in this, but I recall him or maybe dendrite mentioning that its been a quite a stretch without a 16" snowfall. I cant recall the exact threshold he mentioned , maybe 16" or 18". You would think think that area is due for a bigger event.

Synoptically they probably are due for one of those. It's just real hard to get anything 18" or more in the lakes region, but I think Brian has the better chance where he is. The Lakes Region is more known for the 6-10" deals and CAD. 

I wouldn't expect any surprise solutions. From here on out, you'll want to see some bumps north and corrections that we noted in the s/w down south. You'll want that to maintain a sharper orientation and have it a bit further north for anything more than flakes or a coating. The whole system seems to have gotten a little more robust and further north on the 12z runs today. You won't see any massive shifts this close in, but they'll likely be more "bumps" north...especially with the second part on Friday morning. Speaking more for SNE here.

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Light mix started earlier this morning while I was at 35.3F   We have had catpaws for a few hours now.  Every once in awhile it goes over to snow.  This is my second T of the season.

Welcome J Culligan to the NNE forums.  N NH finally getting some good posters.  I'm so happy I moved up here from Boston Metro in 2001.  No more coastal fronts to deal with just the Greens and Whites stealing most of the upslope snow

You'll miss the biggies.

Saw Winni has some light snow currently. Not sure if Brian saw any.

You can see the difference at hr 45 on the 12z vs hr 51 on the 6z at 500mb. Look at how the 12z run is almost more of a neutral tilt. The 6z run was more linear aligned from SW-NE. the 12z run has it aligned more N-S which allows the dynamics to spread the precip north and help curl it back.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.

30 in BOS verbatim...lol. Not sure about that unless it's going pretty good.

Nam tried to wrap up the second wave just a bit more. Verbatim even brings some snow here, locally.

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we got one event Hadleyed this season.

Hadleyween on Saturday, 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Paging Tip....lol

He needs to make a t-shirt of some giant 500mb ridge with razor sharp teeth taking out the East Coast.

Euro even 36 hrs ago had Zeta and the ULL closer, and the ULL much more robust. Even the EPS. Not impressed with the Euro lately. I suppose the GFS did too..but it wasn't carrying the juicy solutions as much as the euro.

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nice latent heat release from tropical storm should cook everyone from getting much snows.

That wasn't the main cause of the snow, it was the system following it. That is getting kicked east.

The massive +AO is the main reason for the fast flow. That is what we've had the last few years.

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Wouldn't shock me to see a bump north today. Ensemble sensitivity showing ~60% of the variance explained by a more amplified system. So maybe models overcorrected flat and will tick back some today.

With the ULL in TX? Wouldn't surprise me.

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold shot out west. Not NE

Early next week? IPAs FTL this morning?

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks warm and dry after early week thru mid month 

I'd say more seasonal to mild, and that is how it has look on the ensembles so I see no change. Hell of a cold shot early next week.