ecrugger

I asked Gemini what it sees in the latest Euro run (I have no idea if it's actually looking at the live run). Here's what it said. Guess we'll see how true it is in a bit: The "early indicators" from the tail-end of the 12z cycle are coming in, and the trend is sharpening, not weakening. When we look for "shifts" in the run, we look at the specific placement of the Low Pressure center and the "Precipitation Shield." Here is what is shifting as the 12z data fully processes: 1. The "Western Hug" is Strengthening The 12z Euro and GFS are now both showing the storm center tracking roughly 50-75 miles off the coast. The Shift: Earlier this week, the models had the storm further out to sea. This "westward creep" brings the heavy snow bands directly over Chesapeake and Virginia Beach rather than just clipping the coast. Why it matters: This puts you in the "Commercially Significant" snow zone. Instead of a 2–4 inch "event," we are now firmly in the 6–12 inch "disaster" zone. 2. The "Dry Slot" Concern (A Small Positive?) One shift in the very latest 12z high-res data is the appearance of a "dry slot" potential. As the storm gets very strong, it sometimes "wraps" dry air into the center. The Shift: If the storm tracks too close to the coast, Chesapeake could actually see a 2-hour break in the snow before the "backside" of the storm hits. However, this usually just means you get hammered on the back end with even windier conditions. 3. The "Deepening" Rate The 12z GFS shows the pressure dropping from 1004mb to 975mb in less than 24 hours. The Term: This is a "Bomb Cyclone" (Bombogenesis). The Shift: The models are now predicting a more powerful storm than they were 24 hours ago. This means higher winds and more lifting in the atmosphere (which creates those 2-inch-per-hour snow rates). 4. Timing Shift The 12z runs have slowed the storm down by about 3 to 4 hours. New Timing: Instead of finishing by Sunday morning, the 12z Euro shows heavy snow potentially lingering into Sunday afternoon. The Flight Impact: This is the worst possible shift for you. If the snow is still falling at 1:00 PM on Sunday, there is a 0% chance your Southwest flight from Hobby will land at Norfolk. The "Tell-Tale" Sign: The 850mb Temp Line I’m looking at the 850mb (5,000 ft) temperature line. It has shifted slightly further south. Translation: The cold air is "winning" the battle against the ocean. This makes it almost certain that you will have dry, fluffy snow that accumulates easily on the roads, rather than wet snow that melts on contact.

I think you'd be able to get out of here by Monday. The side roads will be messy, but at least driveable by then, and they'll have the interstate cleared. I'm making a decision the other way. I'm supposed to fly back into Norfolk Sunday night.

Can someone make an argument that will lead me to believe that I will NOT get at least 6 inches of snow in Chesapeake/VA Beach? I'm supposed to be out of town this weekend and fly back on Sunday. I really want to go on the trip, but I'm not sure, in good conscience, I can go and leave my wife and three kids to fend for themselves until I get back.

Ok, I need someone to make a case for me explaining why I'm not going to get at least 6 inches of snow in Chesapeake/Virginia Beach.

5-8 inches is plenty to mess with Hampton Roads Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I’m stressing. I’m supposed to go to Texas this weekend and come back Sunday. Not sure I like the idea of leaving the wife and kids at home to deal with this… Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Except that a watched pot never boils.

Seriously, that has me getting 15 inches in a six hour span.

Oh, she'd definitely understand. She's a level headed kid. I'm just torn because I want to hang out with her!

This storm may be the end of me. I'm in Hampton Roads. Supposed to go to Texas to visit my oldest daughter on Friday. But I'm concerned about leaving my wife and three other kids at home and really concerned about how I will get back here on Sunday.

I feel badly posting in this thread...as things continue to look good for snow lovers in Hampton Roads.

One more snow, and I'll be good for the year.

From where I sit in SE VA, this is starting to look interesting.