D-Money

the NAM3k actually came in with no snow for any of our area. The HRRR was not nearly as extreme, but kept measurable snow confined to southside Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina. It is true that there is quite a bit of dry air in place, but the moisture brought in by the sfc low and the SW flow ahead of the upper low aloft combined with the strong forcing from the upper low and the FGEN band NW of the sfc low, should be enough to overcome that. Do not want to completely disregard these solutions, but the lack of consistency from run to run along with the lack of support from the pattern do not yield much confidence I picture it like a spray bottle set on mist. You’re trying to put out a fire(dry air) using that mist setting. Moisture just evaporates. The hope is we can get a band or two from the coastal over head the area to see accumulation. People south of the VA/NC boarder should see accumulations. Southside maybe. The peninsula to Richmond and eastern shore probably won’t see anything outside of some dandruff floating around tonight.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=AKQ-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad

Oh my

HRDPS

HRDPS

Will be a good run for southside and NC. Maps soon.

AIGFS midweek

Don’t have access to precip rate/type but surface temps looked warm? But qpf was close to an inch.

Latest GEM looks GFSish

Latest RAP

Overall it has been extremely fun tracking this one. Especially with those crazy 2’+ beat down runs. Archive worthy. I do wish this turned out to be much closer to the coast with the coastal. Would have been full on blizzard. 12”+ Rooting for NC SC folks.

AIGFS 0z

GFS 0z

ICON

Nice hit

FV3

NAM 3k

NAM

18z NAM 3k. LP organizes to far south to pump the banding in to the area.

12z GFS good hit for southside/NE NC. North cut off line the same. But it does have more from the coastal in SE VA 6Z to compare.

12 ICON

12z 3k NAM not doing it. FV3 not doing it as well, LP pushes east and precip gets sucked out to see. both runs get some bands in to the southside but it may not add to much due to the dry air. All in on the NAM! What could go wrong?

12z NAM

12z hrrr is a no go and a shut out except for NE NC. We need the coastal low to hit us like NAM is showing.

Latest Canadian gets RVA into the game some. Though, like you mentioned, areas on the edge will battle that dry air.