MoWeatherguy

7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic. 

IKR, suicide watch. 

Only 10 more nail- biting runs of the GFS left before possible issuance of WSW's.

7 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

The way some people have been posting on social media it is almost a legitimate concern.

Most of the time overhyped = underperforming.  Very cautious here. 

Add to that probably a fast mover.  I just never get a good feel about these well advertised systems. 

My concern with Monday is a slide too far SE.  

11 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Man, I want to believe, but I can’t help but think these forecasts are a bit premature. How many time in the last 5-10 years have we had a system like looks great 5-7 days out then totally falls apart as we close in? 

I'm with you.   Been burned 5 days out too many times in my 50 yrs lol.

I would think Kuchera might be a little more inline this time around with such high snow/liquid ratios in play.   But who knows.   Still 5 days out.

3 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

The GFS temperatures are crazy so far.  Has NWA below freezing all the way out to next Friday.

But nothing to show for it.

I contend we won't cash in on any significant snow here in NW AR.  These big outbreaks are just a lotta cold and light precip here and there.   Models just get drier as we get closer to every possible event. 

Yes I wonder as well.   Long- range forecasting still has a ways to go for sure. 

How have the Euro weeklies been this year u ask?  Well,  here you go.  Top pic is the current weeks forecast from a month ago.  Next pic is the newest forecast,  same time period. 

2 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

Looks like the front cuts just north of you and those of us in NW AR.  The shallow cold air always has such a hard time pushing over the mountains so we’ll stay between 30-34ish while others a few miles north are in the 20’s.

Per the HRRR, Bentonville isn’t below 32 for 12 more hours.   

Still 35 here in Bella Vista.  And that's close to the MO state line.

26 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Without at least a couple inches of snow on the ground, there’s no way the GFS verifies. So that means, the GFS is not going to verify. 

Agree.  The GFS appears overdone on temps and will prolly modify as we get deeper into this.   

12z GEM looking a lot like the 0z Euro with temps now.  GFS and Icon are by themselves. GFS has been consistent tho

I read from another blog the Euro lost around 7000 data reporting stations due to the pandemic.  Been very erratic in the long range. 

Pretty rough for February standards for sure.   I'm not a fan of these overpowering arctic fronts.   We'll be lucky to get a big storm out of it.  

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

The 00z ICON continues to become more impressive on the system on Sat bringing the Arctic front.

Gotta think there would be something with a strong wave like that. 

All eyes on early next week now.

Bout damn time.   Hopefully not another false alarm.  Maybe this is gonna be a bookend winter. 

34 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

MoWeatherGuy Did you see the advisory lol? dusting to half inch possible tonight...nearly at that dreaded 33F temp again though sighhhh

Didn't see that.   Must be a late add.  Lol just another dusting, eh.

Nothing like 10 ft of snow in the Sierra

Detailed forecast for

West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada

GFS says there could be a bit of snow around here on Wednesday.   Just looking at thickness and 850's.

Where's old man winter?  Anything good on the horizon?  People keep talking end of Jan, now Feb.  Not a good sign IMO.

23 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Had a slight dusting here in Bentonville.   Enough to turn the grass and rooftops white.  

Same here. 

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/65Pduff_GOI

I always like reading posts from Larry Cosgrove, in case you're interested.   He's on board for a cold,  stormy last 2 weeks of Jan.