MoWeatherguy

1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said:

Those were with the PC but I've done it with my Android its just a bit trickier to accomplish. You have to tap and hold the white area at the top of the graphic to get the "save image" option with mine.

Same here.   Works well with Android 

Wtf?

So.. anybody staying up for the Euro!?

1 minute ago, KC Storm said:

Storm #2 continues the trend of a more expansive shield of precip. Someone will get lucky and do really well from the two storms put together. Nice hit NW AR for storm #2

Good to hear. 

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Tulsa could end up looking pretty bad for issuing the warning so far in advanced. 

The SGF forecast office has always been superior to Tulsa.   You see they have played the conservative route on this one.

I call this Lucy.  I'm in far NW AR mind you.   Storm 1 best lift west of here.   Storm 2 east of here.   Granted it's the NAM.

12 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

I think NAM may actually be Lucy...

I have a feeling every 0z run tonight might be Lucy.  

7 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Good grief, not even gonna! Thats way tooooooo far out man dont fall for the trickery and punish yourself lol

Me, either.  Not another trap!

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

Guys (and gals), 

We still are in play for 6-12+ for almost everybody in 2 storms.  Yes, lots of room for error.  We aren’t getting shutout though.  

Here’s some reassurance from the v16...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=216&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

Holy smokes!  That found something big after Thursday.

5 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Man the last time I saw a good snow here(over 4") was back in 2013, no kidding! Thats right around when you moved here also isnt it? Every year since its been half inch to 1 inch lil storms or a total of a half inch to an inch a season lol

Yes, you are correct.  Moved here in March 2014.  One 5" snow since then.

Feeling better about my call for 2-4.

3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

V16 held steady minus the hole over NWA.  

Come to expect that around here.  Minus Dec 13th, 2020, this place is cursed for snow.

When all is said and done we're probably looking at a 2-4 event here. 

Big diff between GFS and Euro for the NW half of AR.  GFS very generous for all of AR but not so much on the Euro.  GFS16 looks a lot like Euro, though, for AR at least.

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Pivotal's Kuchera uses the formula. I'm not sure what Weatherbell's uses.

In the winter weather tab of the parameter menu on the side, there's a "Kuchera" which shows what the ratio is for that given time on the model.

So  on the 12z GFS for hour 63 for example, the Kuchera ratio is 15:1 in your area. The 12z NAM is also at 15:1

Good info.  Tks

9 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Euro is free on pivotalweather now? Generally 0.3-0.4 for your area.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Great site.  I had lost my link to it I guess.  Thanks.

So looks like the Kuchera maps are using about a 20:1 SLR?

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

OK thanks.

44 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Awfully kind of you Euro.

Can somebody post the Euro QPF map for the period ending 0Z 2-16-21?

Just now, StormChazer said:

Thank you

2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I always like to look at qpf and do my own expected ratios from there.  Anyone have liquid output from the Euro for NW AR?

GFS spits out around .55 here.   So maybe 6-10 in of snow as a starting point. 

I always like to look at qpf and do my own expected ratios from there.  Anyone have liquid output from the Euro for NW AR?

Just now, JoMo said:

I think the weatherbell Kuchera map is way overdone. I'm not sure why it is always so much higher than the one at pivotal weather. 

My rule of thumb is slash it in half.

1 down,  9 to go lol. 

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Icon on to another scenario, running the storm through Missouri and Illinois from Texas and Oklahoma 

Thankfully in this instance there is no warm sector vs cold sector.