MoWeatherguy

IKR, suicide watch.

Only 10 more nail- biting runs of the GFS left before possible issuance of WSW's.

Most of the time overhyped = underperforming. Very cautious here.

Add to that probably a fast mover. I just never get a good feel about these well advertised systems.

My concern with Monday is a slide too far SE.

I'm with you. Been burned 5 days out too many times in my 50 yrs lol.

I would think Kuchera might be a little more inline this time around with such high snow/liquid ratios in play. But who knows. Still 5 days out.

But nothing to show for it.

I contend we won't cash in on any significant snow here in NW AR. These big outbreaks are just a lotta cold and light precip here and there. Models just get drier as we get closer to every possible event.

Yes I wonder as well. Long- range forecasting still has a ways to go for sure.

How have the Euro weeklies been this year u ask? Well, here you go. Top pic is the current weeks forecast from a month ago. Next pic is the newest forecast, same time period.

Still 35 here in Bella Vista. And that's close to the MO state line.

Agree. The GFS appears overdone on temps and will prolly modify as we get deeper into this.

12z GEM looking a lot like the 0z Euro with temps now. GFS and Icon are by themselves. GFS has been consistent tho

I read from another blog the Euro lost around 7000 data reporting stations due to the pandemic. Been very erratic in the long range.

Pretty rough for February standards for sure. I'm not a fan of these overpowering arctic fronts. We'll be lucky to get a big storm out of it.

Gotta think there would be something with a strong wave like that.

All eyes on early next week now.

Bout damn time. Hopefully not another false alarm. Maybe this is gonna be a bookend winter.

Didn't see that. Must be a late add. Lol just another dusting, eh.

Nothing like 10 ft of snow in the Sierra Detailed forecast for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada Tonight Snow showers. Windy. Lows 11 to 26 higher elevations... 25 to 31 lower elevations. Snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches. Prevailing south winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph increasing to 55 mph after midnight. Wednesday Heavy snow showers. Windy. Highs 22 to 36. Snow accumulation of 8 to 14 inches lower elevations...except 22 to 28 inches higher elevations. Prevailing south winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Heavy snow showers and heavy rain showers. Breezy. Lows 18 to 33 higher elevations...around 33 lower elevations. Snow accumulation of 4 to 10 inches lower elevations...except 24 to 30 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Thursday Heavy snow showers and heavy rain showers. Not as cold. Highs 25 to 40 higher elevations...35 to 43 lower elevations. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches lower elevations... Except 17 to 23 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Thursday Night Rain and snow showers. Lows 16 to 31 higher elevations...29 to 37 lower elevations. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch lower elevations...except 7 to 13 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 5 to 15 mph. Friday

GFS says there could be a bit of snow around here on Wednesday. Just looking at thickness and 850's.

Where's old man winter? Anything good on the horizon? People keep talking end of Jan, now Feb. Not a good sign IMO.

Same here.

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/65Pduff_GOI I always like reading posts from Larry Cosgrove, in case you're interested. He's on board for a cold, stormy last 2 weeks of Jan.