SACRUS

Just about a week away. ULL looks to push out by the fourth but linger off New England coast. Flow goes N/NW and warming by later Sat and the 5th. Looking overall dry and warm with cooler along the beaches and NJ shore Sat. Sunday looks to begin a hot stretch that looks to linger beyond the first week of July.

6/26 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 EWR: 89 BLM: 88 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 ISP: 86 JFK: 86

220 hours to go. GFS continues with bringing the flow more NW by Sat the 4th, while the ECM hole the ULL / onshore through Jul 8. We'll see if this a run that went too long or a trend. Either way looking warm and dry for most on the 4th, beaches may be a bit cooler. Once the flow turns, the heat is on.

244 hours to go. A matter of clearing the weakness / ULL within the ridge. ECM a bit longer into the 4th with the GFS quicker to move the ULL cutoff out. Overall once flow goes N/NW the heat is on. Ahead of that 6/30 - 7/3 onshore and may become wetter on guidance. But the holiday weekend looks to warm.

260 hours to go. Guidance still varying on when the flow goes more NW/W but still looks like after a few days (6/30 - 7/2 or 3) of onshore flow we heat things up the fourth of July weekend. Still need to watch if a ULL fully cuts off and is pushed southwest similar to May and last week but the weekend may prove to get on the warmer flow of the ULL whether pushing inland (SW) or pushing east.

Overall looking like very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance. ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions. Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go...

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

Last few runs of the GFS, Euro / ensembles showing strong ridging building into the region by 6/30 but flow could be onshore before going more NW/WNW by Jul 3. Looking hot by the 4th right now.

360 hours away and starting to show up on th elong range extended guidance. ECM / GFS show warm above normal into the east and most of the country for that matter. Will see how it progresses.

6/10 New Brnswck: 91 PHL: 91 TTN: 90 ACY: 87 BLM: 86 EWR: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 85 LGA: 85 ISP: 79 JFK: 79

6/9 LGA: 91 EWR: 91 TEB: 89 BLM: 89 New Brnswck: 88 PHL: 88 NYC: 87 TTN: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 83 JFK: 81

first 90's of the season. 6/6 EWR: 91 PHL: 90 LGA: 90 New Nrnswck: 89 ACY: 89 BLM: 88 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 82

Dont think we are too far from our first 90s of the season / near memorial day weekend. 2020 projections Hotter / wetter version of 2008. Bookend hottest temps of summer fist half of June and early/mid August, Jul longest stretch of heat.. Possible century mark heat in Aug. Thinking near normal to wetter overall. If things go to one way would argue more chance of warmth underscoring temps 90 degree (+) days PHL: 30 - 33 EWR: 31 - 34 NYC: 17 - 20 LGA: 27 - 30 New Bnswk: 26 - 29

10/2 EWR: 96 ACY: 96 New Bnswk: 95 PHL: 95 JFK: 95 TEB: 95 LGA: 95 BLM: 94 NYC: 93 TTN: 93 ISP: 89

9/23 EWR: 93 TEB: 92 PHL: 92 BLM: 91 New Bnswk: 90 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 NYC: 89 TTN: 89 JFK: 82 ISP: 81

9/11 TEB: 93 EWR: 91 LGA: 91 New Bnswk: 90 PHL: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 NYC: 88 ACY: 88 JFK: 84 ISP: 81

Or next week Sep 11 - 17 period.

9/4: TEB: 94 ACY: 92 PHL: 92 New Bnswk:90 EWR: 90 TTN: 89 LGA: 89 BLM: 88 NYC: 87 JFK: 81 ISP: 80

8/22 LGA: 93 ACY: 93 TEB: 92 EWR: 92 New Bnswk: 92 PHL: 92 ISP: 91 JFK: 91 BLM: 91 NYC: 90 TTN: 89

8/21 ACY: 92 PHL: 92 LGA: 91 BLM: 91 New Bnswk: 91 TEB: 90 EWR: 89 TTN: 89 NYC: 87 JFK: 88 ISP: 85

8/19 EWR: 94 LGA: 93 TEB: 93 New Bwnswk: 93 PHL: 93 BLM: 92 ACY: 92 TTN: 92 NYC: 90 ISP: 86 JFK: 86

8/18 TEB: 97 New Bnswk: 92 LGA: 91 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 ACY: 90 EWR: 90 BLM: 89 TTN: 89 JFK: 87 ISP: 87

8/7: PHL: 91 TEB: 90 New Bnswk: 88 ACY: 88 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 BLM: 85 NYC: 84 EWR: 84 ISP: 84 JFK: 84 8/8 LGA: 92 ACY: 90 PHL: 89 TEB: 89 New Bnswk: 86 BLM: 87 EWR: 87 JFK: 84 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 ISP: 83

8/4 EWR: 91 TEB: 90 New Bnswk: 90 PHL: 90 BLM: 90 JFK: 89 ACY: 89 TTN: 89 ISP: 88 LGA: 88 NYC: 87

7/31: TEB: 92 PHL: 92 ACY: 91 LGA: 90 New Bnswk: 90 BLM: 89 EWR: 89 NYC: 87 JFK: 86 TTN: 86 ISP: 85