SouthWake33

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Posts posted by SouthWake33


  1. 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

    really nice low run but no snow ?

    gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

    gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

    I'm no expert, but I think the placement of that great lakes low is an issue on this run compared to the 18z version that gave us a more widespread winter storm from yesterday.  Also, the high doesn't hang on long enough over PA/NY.


  2. 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

    Not sure if you guys want to be pulled in again, but the latest HRRR and RAP do give more snow with the redevelopment of the back bands. HRRR gives the Triangle 3" with the RAP 5" with more to the NE. Just the messenger.. 

    I say we string the messenger up...j/k.  Keep the updates coming!!


  3. 3 minutes ago, RaleighWx said:

    NAM has 1.75 to 2 inches of QPF for Raleigh area from 7pm today to 7pm Saturday. Down below 32 now, so that should be all frozen for me.

    Thanks Alan.  Has the temp profile changed on the Nam...moved further south at all?  Or are we just looking at an increase in moisture?


  4. 16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

    12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

    KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
    KBHM: 1" Snow
    KCLT: 9.4" snow
    KGSO: 10.8" snow
    KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
    KHKY: 4.3" snow
    KRDU: 12.4" snow

     

    Thanks QC.  Is this from the euro?


  5. 10 minutes ago, Wow said:

    You can really see what each model is going to do looking at the 48 hr maps (valid 18z Jan 4).  Euro has the 540dm line all the way into E Washington at that time while the GFS and NAM have it well back into Montana and the 546dm line cut off.  Already obvious from there that the Euro was going draw it in more.

    Forgive me, I'm sure this is an ignorant question, but here goes.  Why can't we knit together the best short range model (SREF, HRRR etc) and the best mid range model (NAM???) to determine where the starting point should be for the best long range models (GFS, Euro, UKMET etc) in say 48 hours?  Isn't that ultimately what we are trying to figure out?  What will the starting point be on Wednesday night...


  6. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING INTO THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS... PRECIPITATION WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MID EVENING. THE 00Z/GSO SOUNDING STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE CURRENT ONGOING FORECAST OF A MAJOR IF NOT CRIPPLING SNOW STORM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN AND SNOW WERE MIXED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S. THE PRECIPITATION WAS BEGINNING AS SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KANNAPOLIS AND BADIN TO SILER CITY TO RALEIGH IN THE COLDER AIR. UPSTREAM SNOW WAS FALLING AT KGSP WITH THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION SOUTH OF KGSP. THE GSO SOUNDING DEPICTED PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL MOISTEN AND COOL SHORTLY SUPPORTING THE RAPID TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FAY TO GSB LINE. BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NC... AND THE CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS... SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY IN THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY. WE WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN THE MAIN TRANSITION ZONE (LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO OR POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION AT LEAST EARLY ON). CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WELL AND UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA SUPPORTS SOMETHING DIFFERENT... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SE. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL RAPIDLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... WITH MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE 28-31 DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND NEAR 32 IN THE SE.

    Never thought I'd say this, but thank you Brick for adding this to the discussion. It has eased my worries some.


  7. Here you go...

     

    Edit:  EuroWx has GSO with 11:1 to ratios, RDU with 10:1.

    I'm having trouble figuring out how to post the maps, but it looks like the euro precip totals moved about 50 miles or so northwest when comparing this to the same map from 12z. One more shift like that and it's totals would be similar to the wetter models for at least the portion of the state shown.