wxmx

It's moving a bit faster than forecasted. About to get it's feet wet. I think it will get a bit farther north than the forecasted track before turning west, southwest

The only place in the GOM where where shear is forecasted to remain low (and there's little dry air) is the Bay of Campeche. There have been a few GFS runs showing a significant cyclone there (not the Euro), but most just shove it well SW, after the Yucatan, towards land, without much chances to develop.

56 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Jorge. What’s up man? Hope all is well. I knew 90L would bring you back to us. 

Doing ok...yeah, I have little time nowadays, but Hannah, and now TD22 (and the likes) will always pull the weather weenie out of me

19 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Wouldn't it take a while. The heat capacity of water is high so just "a couple of days in the sun"I feel like would not really warm up the waters that much. 

Warming up sea surface wouldn't take much time, and usually, more important than sun light is wind. Calm seas, with little churning can sensibly warm sea surface...and low clouds at night to trap some of the low level atmospheric heat would also help. But that would be at depths of no more than a few meters. The heat capacity of the area south of LA is pretty low right now, so I don't think it would recover much in that aspect. A smaller, faster moving system would resent this heat content loss less than a bigger, slower moving one.

20 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Sure looks an awful lot like we have a tropical storm near 22.3n 99.5w on satellite to me. 

Would be quite a feat, being inland  ... but yeah, it looks like a bona fide TC around 22.2N

A couple of days ago a tornado hit the NE part of the metro area. It was a confirmed EF-2 twister. 3 people died, and there was significant damage. The affected area is more of an industrial zone. It was the first record of a direct hit of a tornado in Monterrey. There have been close calls before, but no direct hits.

11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

LOL Wow! That storm is almost an afterthought with Dorian literally getting all the attention.

Hopefully you don't have any damage.

How much more you expecting. Have to ask considering it's not being talked about

24 hours rainfall, as reported near the airport, 507mm (20 inches)... Slight rain at the moment, and not big accumulations are expected, although the next few 2-3 days we are still expecting precipitation.

"Wimpy" Fernand has dumped 10" IMBY and counting.

Around 14+ hours non stop rain around MBY today. I estimate around 6-7" have fell, and it's raining cats and dogs out there attm.

A bit of hail in Guadalajara a couple of nights ago

Just like in last November, and last winter as well, strato snow (low level cold dome, with overrunning warm, relatively moist air) was seen at around 1300m+ a couple of days ago. Pretty uncommon occurrences, that have become more frequent these last 2 winters. By Saturday we expect highs in the mid 90s. Not even Vivaldi executed his Four Seasons so fast.

Last winter's pattern appears to be showing up again. It's veeery early for snow here, but models show that there's an outside chance, especially over high land.

Eye contracted quite a bit.

That impressive outflow channel, helping vacate the upper levels and the higher OHC are offsetting the 25kts shear. Strong and continuous bursts of convection due to increased instability are doing the trick. Looks like it's at least steady state until landfall.

Looking at the MJO, the GEFS and EPS continue to show a very strong wave about to enter phase 7, but past day 7 significantly slowing and losing amplitude. The operational models aren't as aggressive with the wave plummeting, and that would be a better prospect for storminess overall.

35 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Yeah, fully agree with your assessment. Looks like constant cold seeping south, east of the Rockies, but dry overall, other than South TX, MX and the Gulf Coast, which could have drizzle and lows developing east of Brownsville. Unless we get that strong PV weaken, move south and elongate in a positive trough, lowering the heights in the SW, much more colder and wetter prospects look hard to obtain.

1 hour ago, Roy said:

So basically are we getting extreme cold again to where we can't have storms like December north of Austin, for that's what it sounds like to my untrained ear/eye.

Not necessarily...you can get a Baja low that doesn't dig that far into MX and some ridging near the SE coast. That could create a nice bowling ball low for N TX. Also, you can get a big low level high moving south the plains, with ridging in MX...that would be a good setup for overrunning events in N TX as well.

What I'm trying to highlight is that there's a good chance that we'll get a very cold source in Canada and that eventually the cold dam will burst. Whatever happens next is up for grabs.

1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

While the model forecasts may technically be showing a flip to -AO in the longer range, they're also showing a very strong and in-tact vortex over Canada, which does not bode well for extended cold at lower latitudes. 

A PV near the Hudson Bay is one of the elements present in a McFarland signature. A tightly wound vortex won't unload the cold into the lower latitudes, or it will in small doses, but a deep storm moving south from the upstream flow can relax the heights into the lower latitudes. That can happen if we get a strong west coast ridge, better if it connects to the EPO ridge (we have had a few this winter). It can lead to suppression (again, this winter), but a not so strong ridge (neutral PNA) can benefit the southern Plains with a storm.

All this is speculative, and, as I said before, I think the models were too fast with the pattern change to colder, and as expected they have been delaying the cold dam burst past day 10. But a passage of a coherent MJO wave into phases 8-2 would activate the above mentioned storms, and relax the heights with high amplification. With a so cold and dense air mass, you don't even need that much amplification, and even can have overrunning events without a strong mid level storm present.

The synoptic events to watch are 1. the migration of the Aleutian ridge to NE Siberia then progress east to Alaska, plus a strong vortex near the Hudson Bay...that's a recipe for very cold anomalies in Canada (very confident it will happen) and 2. a ridge building near the West coast, that allows amplification, and storms to ride south, downstream from said ridge and upstream from the Canadian vortex (much more iffy, especially considering it's in the long range).

2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

+AO argues for glancing blows at these latitudes, but we'll see.

But the AO and EPO are forecasted to go negative

Models are showing the coldest and most expansive air mass of the season in Canada, with the NE Siberian and West Coast ridges joining up in Alaska, in a classic -EPO configuration. Temps < -40C/F bottle up and are ready to burst the dam by the end of the first week of February. The question is if it's going to be a direct hit or a glancing blow, as these super dense air masses can't be kept forever up there.

* First time I see a 1070mb high in NW Canada in the GFS...although it's day 13

14 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Stormy as in snowy or stormy as in severe?

The former, looking at the air masses source region. The pattern looks tightly coupled to a currently strong MJO wave. Models are usually too fast with it, so I'll say that we'll see some delay on the arctic outbreak to the second week of February.

Next shot for NM is around the 21st. Then, the 28th+ looks like an opportunity for most of the region if heights in the Pacific coast can build and tap the Canadian cold air. Plus, it looks like the NE will build a semi-blocking ridge, which would give us a deepening, slow moving trough and a 1-2 punch of cold air, plus the resulting positive tilt to the trough can tap moisture from the Pacific.

Wintry mix here. Mostly freezing drizzle, but also snow and sleet. Currently we are having very light sleet.

I said a few days ago that two snow events in one winter was unheard of here and that stratocumulus snow was something I hadn't experienced until this year. I might have to update those two statements in a couple of days.