Jim Marusak

9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

low-mid 60's dew points on the SE side of the metroplex at 22z

I suspect the game might have  a few lightning delays after the half

 

 

i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium.

7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

still a slight risk although noted metroplex threat

.SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN  
OKLAHOMA. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE  
ANTICIPATED.  
   
..20Z UPDATE  
  
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE  
PRIOR OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEEN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD  
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE  
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONFINED BY A  
SHALLOW COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST  
OK. FOR MORE NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH ~2130Z) ON  
THE DEVELOPING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, SEE MESOSCALE  
DISCUSSION 52.  
  
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ONGOING OVER PARTS OF EAST TX IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY  
BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT  
NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR  
CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TX IN  
THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO  
THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN/AROUND THE METROPLEX TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS SCENARIO.  
  
..GLEASON.. 01/15/2017  

isn't that right around the time the Dallas/Green Bay game ends and people start heading home? maybe some post-game fan safety concerns?

2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

San Angelo radar is down

19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over central texas

apparently the parts needed to get SJT up and going won't be there until Tuesday. have to admit, that's good timing.

question for gulf coast residents, especially the ones in Louisiana right now. what does it look like outside when you have rainfall rates of 6-7"/hr? latest rates in a couple of spots are in the 6-6.5"/hr if the radar estimates are close to true from Slidell radar. and I just can't imagine what the drop size would be for that high a rainfall rate. i know there's a theoretical equation that can figure that out, but reality would be the better to know than the equation at this point.

and radar-estimated totals of 40+", I just can't imagine that much out of one storm. some of the worst flooding i remember was when a decaying tropical storm dumped like 20-30" in central america back in the 2000's. hopefully the radar estimates are off, on the high side.

would be nice attm if there was a guy or gal able to make an old fashioned manual observation and take a photo from ATY (Watertown Airport).

so who is watching attm out on the ABR radar? because it looks like to me the cluster tried to get together in Day and Marshall Counties, but in a form of semi-rejection they ended up spinning up their own tornadoes instead. looks like another hour or two they'll eventually get together. but in the meantime, the interaction with these storms with the cell in Traverse and Big Stone Counties in MN will be a rather interesting one in the next couple of hours somewhere near Grant and/or Stevens Counties near Benson/Morris/Appleton.

05Z analysis of this monster system. double-barrel low. barrel 1 in northeastern Ontario near Earlton (CYXR) 992 hPa. Barrel #2, between Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Dayton with an estimated central pressure near 990 hPa if not 989 hPa. I've seen some strong single lows with pressures like this in the past, and they caused enough damage. But a double-barrel like this at the end of April, we're probably lucky this wasn't worse, as bad as this system was. Btw, I haven't been keeping track of all of the alerts and such in the northern end, except for my folks in northeastern PA. Has there been any severe t-storm warnings in Ontario or western Quebec with this, on top of all the chaos down here?