From the forecaster's disco This cold front will bring an Enhanced (3/5) Risk of severe weather across central PA this evening. Hi-res model guidance continues to suggest convection to develop along this cold front and continue tracking across central PA later this afternoon and throughout the evening hours. Initial thoughts are that a broken line of storms will begin to impact the northern tier closer to the 19-20Z (3pm-4pm) timeframe with marginally severe conditions at the onset with damaging winds being the main hazard across this area. As this cold front approaches the Interstate 80 corridor, it will move into an area with increased instability, becoming more favorable for severe thunderstorms in the 21-22Z (5p-6p) timeframe. Around this timeframe, clusters of broken storms may organize into a narrow squall line with some potential for discrete modes near the surface trough. In an environment with favorable shear parameters and steep lapse rates at the low- and mid- levels, a couple of tornadoes and hail cannot be ruled out as this complex begins moving further to the south this evening, especially along and west of the I-99 corridor. Further to the east, slightly less shear will limit this potential but there is a non-zero chance of a small, weak tornado. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk