snowman21
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Posts posted by snowman21
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AC on here with temps still in the mid-60s, dews in the 50s, light SE wind right now.
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:
Tempered like this week??
BDL is +5.8 through today, and if Ryan's forecast holds would be +6.6 through the middle of the month. Like I said, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country. Maybe if we were living in a place like MSP, DSM, TOP, or RAP it would be relatively unimpressive.
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:
Nobody said normal...but it surely isn’t a furnace. Lately(last 10-15 years) it isn’t out of the ordinary...78-80 is warm for sure, but you can think what you want, but that’s nothing extraordinary for SNE in early October imo.
Ryan's forecast is a +8 over his 10 day period. Maybe it gets tempered a bit, but still, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country.
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Fake cold places will not be happy as GW targets overnight mins.
But are those all fake cold places? It's almost universal across the board that the average first frost date has moved at least a few days to a week later which lends credence to the notion that the fall growing season is extending by approximately 1/2 day per year.
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DIT is not entirely wrong, there are a few CT stations that have had their average first frost date slip from September to October between the 1971-00 and 1981-10 normals.
Station 1971-00 1981-10 --------------------------------------------- BDR Oct 18 Oct 21 Burlington Sep 28 Oct 3 Danbury Sep 26 Oct 4 Falls Village Sep 16 Sep 23 Groton Oct 8 Oct 17 BDL Sep 30 Oct 4 Mansfield Hollow Lake Sep 20 Sep 24 Norfolk Sep 22 Sep 29 Norwich Public Utility Plant Sep 29 Oct 4 Shepaug Dam Sep 28 Sep 26 Stamford Oct 1 Oct 6 Storrs Oct 2 Oct 6 West Thompson Lake Sep 19 Sep 26 -
1 hour ago, dendrite said:
Are we talking the first 7 days of the month or the next 7 days?
I misread your post and thought you were talking about near normal for the period shown in that forecast grid.
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2 hours ago, dendrite said:
Well I'm technically in the southern half. It'll be near normal for the first 7 days up here. CON-south maybe a little warmer. Nothing too cold or too hot for this time of year.
Hopefully next week is warmer and sunnier. MEX is kinda meh for up here. Get that sfc boundary way up into QB please.
GFSX MOS (MEX) KLCI GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/05/2018 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO X/N 62| 40 66| 52 71| 54 63| 52 64| 60 70| 54 66| 55 67 40 59 TMP 49| 43 58| 58 62| 55 56| 56 59| 63 62| 57 58| 57 57 DPT 35| 38 47| 56 60| 50 49| 51 55| 58 56| 54 52| 50 48 CLD CL| CL PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| CL CL WND 7| 2 8| 6 6| 5 5| 5 6| 4 7| 8 6| 4 8 P12 0| 2 8| 15 33| 23 25| 55 50| 42 40| 45 36| 20 18999999 P24 | 8| 37| 25| 77| 56| 68| 27 999 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 2 1| 1 1| 1 | Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 2| 1| | T12 5| 1 2| 4 5| 0 0| 3 2| 11 12| 4 6| 2 1 T24 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 9 PZP 1| 0 0| 2 0| 0 1| 0 0| 2 2| 4 0| 0 0 PSN 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 2| 0 0 PRS 1| 0 0| 1 0| 1 1| 1 1| 0 1| 2 1| 1 0 TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| |
Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but it says the climo avg is 59/40, and that looks like a solid +15 avg on the lows and +7 on the highs which would put the next seven days at around a +11 wouldn't it?
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36 minutes ago, dendrite said:
I would love me some fair weather 40s in January.
You forgot the negative sign.
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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:
said no one in Dec early Jan last year
And despite that early cold last winter was still an above normal one. That's basically the point that as cold as we perceive it to be at times, it still generally works out to be just average. Meanwhile we rip off days of +11 and +13 dailies and hang +4 monthlies like it's our job.
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Even with today's extreme cold, BDL still couldn't pull off a double digit departure below normal. The last one was early June, so BDL has a shot to make it four months without one.
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57 for the low this morning. Too many clouds.
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Just now, Whineminster said:
Finally back online. I almost didn't know what to do with myself.
I thought the board might have been disbanded.
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24 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:
Normal at BDL is 74/51. The week ahead is mostly below that.
Don't think so. I just ran the 10-day against BDL's normals and it comes out to +2.95 with only one day, Sunday, coming in with a negative departure at -0.5 degree. I dunno maybe Ryan is out to lunch on this one and will be way off, but it looks like a solidly above normal forecast for the next week plus to me. Any time you hang a double digit departure on the low temp you're basically screwed and we have a few of those nights in the forecast where it doesn't get much below 60. By this Saturday most of Connecticut's 27 long term climate stations will have normal lows in the 40s, obviously away from the coast and outside the cities, but it shows you the rapid progression we're supposed to be making by this time of year when normals are dropping 1 degree/3 days.
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BDL does have an outside shot at setting a record for warmest monthly low for September. So far BDL has only been down to 51 this month. The record is 47 in September 1934. I say it's an outside shot because there can be that sneaky radiating night very late in the month when nights are longer than the days.
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10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:
Looks like we could get fairly muggy next week once that high slides offshore too.
DIT rejoices!
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Ryan's 10 day didn't look so cool to me, at least not for late September. The coolest day was the 68/51 for Sunday which is maybe a couple of degrees below normal. The rest of the forecast looked like generally low 70s by day, 55-60 by night. Normals next week are MU60s/M40s NW hills, 70/48 inland, and L70s/L50s coast.
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4 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:
A contractor working for the gas company over pressurized a low pressure gas line, resulting in gas discharges from the meter as the meter's regulator tried to cope with pressures that the meter isn't supposed to see. Many older gas services installed before the 1960s have meters located inside the house, and when the over pressurization caused these meters to vent, the gas vented inside the house, resulting in fires and explosions. Those with meters outside that vented, were probably ok.
Oh wow I assume that contractor is now out of business?
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5 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:
Is it just my imagination, or are average low temperatures increasing year over year?
The averages are set once every decade and cover the most recent 30 year period, so no they aren't going up or down year over year.
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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:
Looks like widespread dews in the 30s now in the North Country.
SLK even got down to a 33F dew already. They'll get a hard freeze tonight.
Average first freeze there is 9/9, so right on time. Don't see a hard freeze (28 or lower) coming tonight though as the probability is <10% of it happening this early in the season with the average date being 9/25.
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Low of 65 here
Another 30 degrees and we'll have our first frost.
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I thought houses caught on fire when hit by lightning?
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Just now, CoastalWx said:
Glad we don't live there.
Unfortunately you do.
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When does the cooler and dry weather get here or is that not happening anymore? 24 hours after FROPA and still dews in the 60s. Today's highs: BOS 75, BDL 72, PVD 73, and ORH 70. This is going to be a 36 hour dew down at best.
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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:
Bumping that forever scroll post on mobile made by snowman21 should be a bannable offense
Sorry 'bout that. Was gonna just list the first orders, but didn't want to leave out anyone's favorite weenie radiating spot.
Fall Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018
in New England
Posted
SW New England is a lot more urban and warmer than SE New England. This part of New England has a nice view of the Manhattan skyline and bridges spanning the East River.