mayjawintastawm

I wish WPC predictions would verify IMBY sometimes. It seems like "cold, cloudy, windy and pretty dry except in favored foothills locations" is the safest mantra for last storm, this storm, and probably the next several. We've had <0.25" water in the last 6 weeks and it's so frustrating.

I kind of hope, selfishly, that the storm doesn't happen too much or is rain, since my sprinkler blowout is scheduled for Saturday. In any case, I love how the NWS BOU forecasters are describing the ambiguity of the Wed-Sun timeframe: The last long term discussion used song lyrics to frame the discussion, so why not do that again but this time with a hit song a year earlier than Bonnie Raitt`s hit: "Things That Make You Go Hmmm" by C+C Music Factory. We think we lost count with how many things are making us go hmmm in the forecast from Wednesday through Saturday. We wish we could say confidence is increasing with time, but that is simply not the case. There are some broad brush aspects of how the cut off trough could evolve, but the problem is that small changes in the position and movement of the trough make massive differences in the snow amounts and travel impacts across our area.

We were in Buena Vista last weekend and it indeed seemed much more like early-mid October than almost Halloween. Lots of groves of yellow cottonwoods still leafed out.

Even a quarter of that would be far better than we've done for a while. It's been 40 days since we had >0.1" in a day.

The thing that made me wonder is it also says "San Juan Mountains" and "Collegiate Peaks", both of which it's nowhere near.

Interesting. The caption is several different places all around Colorado. Wonder where it really is. Looks pretty low elevation, given all the leaves on the trees still.

I think we had between one and four snowflakes with a little drizzle. No measurable precip so far.

Let's hope for some cold and, more importantly, moisture. First little frost was Friday morning at my house at 32.2. System Tues night-Wed is looking brief and relatively dry for the Front Range (again), but maybe things will change someday.

Sounds good. Here's to the end of a hot, dry summer and fall. Bring on winter?

Going to be close. I'd say we have a 50/50 shot in Denver.

So weird and typical of this fall... predicted 0.5"+ QPF 36 hours out turned into a solid 0.1" around the Denver Metro over the weekend, then this morning about 4:45 there was a thunderstorm with brief small hail but NO measurable precip (!) at my house. Max I found around the Metro was about 0.05". Meanwhile NM had severe flooding down near Roswell. Bring on some kind of pattern change... anything will do.

Fantastic! Could you see it with the naked eye or did you need binoculars to spot it? We've had clouds to the west and southwest at sunset persistently over the last 3 days, not to mention smoke up against the foothills from the WY fires (I'm assuming).

Denver obliterated its all-time September average temp, with 70.0 F this year. All the top 5 warmest Septembers have been in the last 10 years.

I've noticed this more and more over the last few Septembers- a thin layer of cool air reminds us what month it is when we get radiational cooling at night, but as soon as the sun rises it mixes right out and vanishes. The cooling gets more transient and the heat gets more persistent year over year. I don't think I've seen the Front Range views completely snow-free for this long and this late, maybe ever.

It was glorious. 0.74" of rain here Wed into Thursday, and 48 degrees (first sub-50) this morning. Bring on more of this!

And 1.85" here, with nearly all coming in the 8/4-9 period. Mixed bag for sure. But it was 50.7 F this morning, the lowest since early June.

Just interesting that the red area was right over Boulder.

Kind of funny... someone at NCAR said "my yard is so dry, make it D3" so they did...

Just perusing observations... Buckley AFB (near me) currently has a 93 degree T/Td spread (95/2), with a RH of 3%. Wow. I don't think I've ever experienced that big a difference.

Mountains were beautiful this weekend, now can't even tell they are there from Denver. Orangey-gray skies all day. Yuck.

Denver is heading for its second warmest June on record, topped only by the insane summer of 2012 that had multiple 105 degree days. Super dry at our house too, only 0.13" rain unless we get some today. Will be interesting to see what different places do with fireworks since the moisture has been so variable around the region.

Coolish here too, low 70s today, but we may not see that again for a long time. Very dry too, the forecasted rain did not materialize. 0.11" rain in June so far and I'm worried we may end it that way.

Yes, summer started quickly and the 14er climbing season is off and running though plenty of snow in the shade still. Streams are full and cold! Too hot the next week though, several temps predicted >95 for Denver.

Yeah we have friends who live right along US 36 in Kirk, and somehow they managed to avoid the large hail but the road was flooded. They get storm chasers driving by their house more days than not this time of year...

LSRs are likely to all be east of the population centers again today. Got our first measurable rain in June today, a whopping 0.04" in about 15 minutes. The rain switched off a couple weeks ago, and May was actually drier than normal here too with just 1.06", most before the 20th. Most of the bigger storms have been north or south.