mayjawintastawm

21.2" for an almost-final. 35 hours since it began. Still snowing lightly off and on. Wish I didn't have a day full of Zoom meetings with East Coast people tomorrow!

Just came in from shoveling. 19.7” total. Running out of places to put it. I actually hope we’re about done!

Also, several posters on weather5280 noted a reddish color in the first few inches of the storm from last night, and I did too- probably the snow that fell 12-8 AM today. There have been big dust storms in west Texas the past couple days. Could this have been ingested into the snow that made it all the way up and around to here?

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Aka 50”

Wow

2 bad there was a absolute lack of spots to chase that were east of Laramie and over 7k, or N/W of Cheyenne over 7k

A lot of those SNOTEL sites are pretty isolated, accessible only by dirt roads if by any road. Cool though.

Verifying for sure here. 7.7" new for a total of 11.5" and that was at 10:30. Shoveled, and probably have 2" more since then. Absolutely dumping, and windy. Thinking APA might be close to blizzard criteria, have to check. What a change!!

Edit: If gusts >35 mph count, APA has had blizzard criteria for 5 straight hours. So, yes.

Edit 2: Well, there we are. Blizzard warning for the I-25 corridor.

3.8" storm total here. Whoop-de-doo- looking for a reason the dry slot won't just keep rotating over us. All models all still have a foot plus to go- we'll see. This is worse than being a Red Sox fan in the 1990s.

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Because of daylight savings time, there will no snow between 2:00 AM and 3:00 AM.

But of course! Only time I've ever had to time measurements according to GMT. Geez.

First 6-hr measurement=1.8 inches, though probably another inch since then. Steady accumulation now. Roads are officially slick in DTC.

52 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

12z Euro drops snow totals for much of the area.

?Parker looks like about 20" snow with about 2.0 QPF, about where it was 18 hours ago- so not bad really. 

Starting a new topic for this storm. I don't think we've done that in a very long time. Snow/rain/UP started here at 10:42, 35 F.

I'm going to start a nowcast thread for this storm. Started with UP here at 10:42.

Meanwhile, temps in the Metro area are kind of concerning, 35-37 all night and holding. Doesn't seem like there is anything around to advect cold air anytime soon.

8 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

With the way most of the models are trending this morning, I think a shot at 45-48".  Especially north of town where elevations are about 8000'.

Right. Wentz, if you're still around Monday when roads should be clearer, and feel like exploring , take a drive north or south of Estes. You'll likely find snow that is 6-12 inches or more deeper than right in town. Peak to Peak (hwy 7) should be cleared pretty quickly, and goes up in elevation over 8000" within a few miles. You could even drive south to Boulder Canyon (119) and loop back toward the airport through Boulder.

3 hours ago, MidlothianWX said:

Having lived and tracked storms in the MA for ~10 years before moving here, I'll say that nothing beats a NESIS storm.

That being said, 20" events are a 1 in 5 year occurrence in Boulder, which might explain the lack of action here.

Moved from Central MA 10+ years ago, born and raised there. Funny that annual snowfall here is exactly the same as the neighborhood I came from (though the water equivalent is less than half). Differences are mainly that there is just so much weather of consequence in the NE due to more water, and the winter storms there (perhaps 8- 10 a year in a good year, some hit, some miss) all follow the same 2-3 patterns, which have great entertainment value. The suspense is always there. Here, we get lots of little storms, but only 1 or at most 2 good Four Corners lows a year. Drought and fires tend to turn one off from following the wx. The one exciting thing here that is different for sure is supercell thunderstorms- but they appear and vanish so quickly that "following" them is hard. Most significant hailstorms at any given point are impossible to predict more than a few hours in advance, if that. Anyway, just my $.02. Gettin' ready for a mayjawintastawm, ayuh.

Hypothesis: The half dozen or so of us who post regularly are 1) tired 2) at the store 3) looking out the window and checking the temp every 30 seconds. And we've had almost a week of GFS stupidity, so there's that. And the No Accumulation Model with its mega-dry slot is making everyone mad.

1 hour ago, Wttnwx said:

Hey guys, whats your thoughts on I-80 for Sunday? Should be by NE panhandle early afternoon. Headed to Medicine Bow west of Laramie. Exit 80 at Snowy Range rd Laramie. Good chance they will shut it down? 

I dont know much about the weather. I come here (usually midwest sub) to see what you guys have to say about snowfall amounts. 

 

If you've never been in a Plains blizzard, it's an adventure, and though I like adventures, this is one I'd skip. Think driving in a snowglobe. No points of reference. You can't tell if you're going 10 mph or 100 mph. IF I-80 is open, which it likely won't be, that'll be the scene on Sunday if current forecasts hold.

4 hours ago, Amped said:

 Centennial, just south of Denver is elevated a bit and is where the Euro has the jackpot.   

Though I live in Centennial, and the GFS is saying 12" at my house, but 25" perhaps 2 miles west. What a gradient  Must be me. Plenty of places to stay for reasonably cheap for all the DTC business travelers. Lots of new motels on Arapahoe Rd that look pretty good.

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Thank you. Now when it comes to elevation vs not being in the complete sticks is there any specific town near there that I should look fo? For example looking at that WRF image above I’m guessing those 40” plus amounts are up in the mountains? 

Honestly, with an upslope/elevation dependent storm like this the difference between 25" (Boulder, low-end) and 40" (Nederland, for example) may well be only 10-15 miles as the crow flies. The issue is that that 10 miles may lead you to 0 places to stay that are open. If you want to stay IN the heaviest snow rather than NEAR it, Estes Park or Black Hawk (as others have mentioned) might be your best bet. Great chance of 3 feet of snow in either place. I lived in the Lehigh Valley for a while back in the 90s, and it's kind of like Allentown (places to stay, good but not great snow) and Palmerton (more snow but not really anyplace to stay). Hope that helps.

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

Dropping in from the Southeast forum as my son moved from NC to Broomfield in December. He's headed to Breckinridge Friday evening and then back to Broomfield Sunday evening.  

Here's a great free site for the Euro.  Not sure if you guys have been using it or now.  I use it instead of weather.us site.  It gives nice total snowfall maps rather than just snow depth.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021031100&fh=120&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

TW

Thanks for the site! If things go according to plan, "back to Broomfield Sunday evening" might be dicey. Would think about a plan B. OTOH, systems often clear out earlier than forecast, so it might be OK.

Just now, ValpoVike said:

Well, 00z juiced up again. Even the para.

Where do you get your numbers? I can't get anything yet.

Now might be a good time to take a holistic, Zen-like approach (is that possible here?) and let the atmosphere do what it wants to do for a while before locking anything in. 

Spring Front Range storms:

1) Quite uncommonly are mostly rain

2) Almost always overperform in the foothills; Boulder County usually wins

3) Seldom leave anybody out completely.

Namaste. 

1 hour ago, ValpoVike said:

And the GFS this morning must have been offended by our incredulity and added even more QPF to Larimer.  Over 8" liquid.  

Yeah, a difference between 2" and 4"+ in perhaps 20 miles doesn't make a ton of sense. Would not take this verbatim.

You know, I was thinking about what might make models better that would incorporate probabilities and "time to event" that would inject some climatology into the craziness of predicting weather 168+ hours out. The NWS does this in their forecasting, ramping up POPs etc as events get closer. I do some stats in my job but have no idea about complex modeling. Does this ring a bell with anyone?

Anybody who was around in the floods of 2013 see a similar QPF pattern on the GFS with this storm? Seems spooky. 

GFS is playing a game of high-stakes chicken with the other models. Though none are saying it'll be a total bust. Then again, the No Accumulation Model has not weighed in yet. Tomorrow evening is when our fantasy may blow up.

6 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

18z GFS is even more insane than 12z.  Obviously that'll never happen but it's fun to watch. Then again those kind of totals are far into the danger zone for many people.

 

My biggest storm as an adult was in MD in 2010. We had two 20"+ storms within a week.  It was nuts. The roof was creaking and I ran out of places to put the shoveled snow. It took a week to even get the neighborhood plowed so neighbors dug a path out to the main road.

Blizzard of '78 in metro Boston, baby. One for the ages. 30 inches of dense snow on top of 20 inches 2 weeks earlier, hurricane force winds, huge coastal flooding, school out for 2 weeks (yes, in MA), state of emergency for 1 week, the whole deal. I think Mike Dukakis wore the same sweater for like 10 straight days (look it up). That one got me started on weather. I still have a test tube of water from that blizzard in a box in the basement.

9 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

12z ECMWF is increasing QPF in Larimer and Boulder foothills as well.   If I were chasing, I would target the Peak to Peak highway....Nederland to Estes Park area, but as mentioned it would be quite dangerous unless you got a hotel and tracked from a window .

There are a few nice places to stay in Estes Park, as good a base as any. If you want to observe impact on populated areas, then Boulder. If you are into rustic and potentially cut off from civilization, the Allenspark Lodge right on the Peak to Peak Highway is great if it's open (not sure if it is in winter or in COVID). Great breakfasts there. 50 inches of snow for that area is actually not super rare. Find a way to get a hold of some xc skis or snowshoes and have a good time.

I said recently I will not pay attention to any of the models till 72 hours out. So I'm not. Holy mackerel.