mayjawintastawm

Hi everyone, With March all but a lock for Denver's warmest since records began in 1872, I thought I'd create a contest similar to the Atlantic hurricane contest (RIP Roger Smith ). Winner gets to complain about next winter whenever they want without repercussions.. we'll see how that goes! Let's go with # of 90 degrees or hotter/#of 95 or hotter/# of 100 or hotter. Bonus: guess the first 90 degree day. Double bonus: guess the yearly hottest temperature. Contest will be open till April 15, or sooner if there is a 90 degree day before that. Temps will be the ones at DEN. For reference: (average/max): 90 or higher 44/75 (2020); 95 or higher 16/42 (2012); 100 or higher 1 (median)/13 (2012). Earliest 90+ is April 30. I'll start: 72/30/7 and 4/28. Hottest=104.

Interesting. Not that I'm real big on cycles, but 1933-80 was 47 years and 1980-2025 was 45. Hypothesis: La Niña is necessary but not by itself sufficient for very, very warm winters. Now we need to figure out what the other main ingredients are.

I hope there are some smarter and more climate-knowledgeable than me who chime in, but from what I've read, La Niña and the syndrome where "dry begets dry" (antecedent soil moisture, etc) have given rise to the dryness. We're certainly in one of the dryer periods we've seen, though not quite exceptional, yet. This happened during the Dust Bowl years, and was even more persistent. I'm satisfied with the explanation for the dryness. But the incredible heat itself is another story. Sure, La Niña contributes, and global warming contributes some, but I haven't yet seen a good explanation for the incredibly persistent and strong high pressure areas that are bringing it. The crabapple trees in Metro Denver are a good 4-6 weeks early with their blooming. Any other ideas?

For the archives: Yesterday was March 18. It was 80.1 degrees at my house. Heading to Crested Butte this weekend for a long-planned xc ski trip. We will bring the mud boots for hiking and leave the skis at home.

3.7" here, 12.7" total MTD which is almost half my season total. We're now over my 15-year season minimum of 21.6". Guessing a bit over 1" WE for the month, not bad if heat/dryness otherwise weren't fighting against it.

Great. Though at this point, it's as likely to be a storm of lava as it is rain or snow. Maybe more likely.

Hope not. At this range, this is a little like the clown snow maps we get from time to time. If it weren't the EC and if we hadn't seen this pattern literally 80% of the time for the past 5 months, I'd shrug it off.

Denver, CO. D minus, or maybe F plus if the next two weeks of 15+ degrees above normal and bone dry verify. 1st or 2nd warmest winter in 140 years and one of the driest. The Metro area is now in D3 (Extreme) drought. Watering restrictions and a mega fire season are likely.

I have 7.8" on my snow board now, flat sheltered area with no drifting. Wow! Still accumulating a little. We had a good 1"/hr band from about 7:30-11:30 and steady light to moderate snow since. Late edit: 9.0" total.

2.5" since 7 AM here. Surprise! Looks like a rare boom.

Yup. Point forecast for us is about 3" snow with about 0.4" WE, so planning on 1.3" snow with 0.17" WE. Still, would be more than we've had since about 1/20.

Dang. Just a trace of rain here. Nothing measurable since sometime in late January.

My relatives in central MA are sick to death of it. Snowmobiles are the transportation of choice this winter for some in the rural areas, a rarity! We visited 2 weeks ago and it was like RMNP except without the mountains. We had a 2000-miles-from-CO snowball fight. And it's cold too, single digits many mornings.

Yeah, really all the way back to around Labor Day here. And the CPC weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts just came out, which to me look like no real major pattern change for the next several months- La Niña, having far overstayed its welcome, may reluctantly leave, but that isn't translating into less heat or more moisture. Meanwhile, the East Coast keeps getting slammed with one storm after another.

That's good news! We are still at a trace for the month.

As we continue to desiccate down here on the Plains, February climate numbers to date indicate that DEN is tied for #1 warmest (43.7 average, +12) and is #1 for both driest (trace) and least snowy (trace) since the 1870s. Hopefully that will change.

Currently 32 F (above zero) at the measuring station way up above Berthoud Pass at 12493 ft. Dewpoint 0. Sublimation city! I was up on the ridge at Loveland Ski Area yesterday at roughly the same elevation, with roughly the same temp.

Jan snowfall 6.4", season to date 13.4".

Now that we don't have La Nina to blame anymore, any idea when this seemingly permanent, blocking ridge will go away? Always seems like "a pattern change is anticipated in about two weeks"... while my relatives in MA freeze their butts off. Daffodils are sprouting and a few birds are building nests.

The small squall had a direct impact on the outcome of the game... boo. My gym teachers and high school coaches in New England always said not to pass the ball when it's snowing hard. Guess that message didn't make it out here. Cold now. Haven't measured yet but guessing about an inch after 0.5" yesterday. My relatives in MA are getting absolutely pummeled. EDIT: just for numbers' sake, picked up 1.2" to add to the 0.5" from Saturday.

Yeah, weird for sure. The last several years, in fact, anytime a polar vortex lobe breaks off and heads south in North America, it seems like the axis is always between 75 and 95 W. That's a pretty narrow band. I wonder why. Incidentally, that is probably the largest winter storm watch I've ever seen in terms of sheer land area.

2.3" this event. 11.7" on the season. Hope Feb-May delivers!

Reviving my Dust Bowl musing from a couple weeks ago. Looking to see if there are any parallels in patterns between winter 33-34 and this winter. In Denver, Dec 33 was #1 warmest and this year #2, Jan 34 was #2 warmest (and the beginning of Denver's warmest year on record) and this year so far is #1. I kind of hope not, because 1934 was the kind of year you read about in history books, and not in a good way... I'm sure sea surface temperatures were not a thing yet in the 1930s, nor was PNA etc. but I wonder about other things they did measure. EDIT: Holy crap, I found something. (This is why atmospheric science is SO important...) La Nina from 90+ years ago. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-top-story-source-of-1930s-dust-bowl-drought-in-tropical-waters-nasa-finds-march-18-2004/#:~:text=Scientists used SST data acquired,storms blew across the U.S.

2.4” here, almost all 1-6 am.

Pretty soon we’ll be driving ourselves crazy looking at models that predict yesterdays snowstorm that never happened.