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Doorman

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    Tropical Storm Fay

    in New York City Metro

    Posted 

    Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 10 2020 - 12Z Sat Jul 11 2020 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

...Mid Atlantic/New England...
...20Z Update...
Pretty big QPF/ERO changes at this update as the newly formed 
Tropical Storm Fay will track a bit closer to the coast and into 
inland New England than was previous forecast. This then brings 
the axis of heaviest rain farther inland; along and east of the 
I-95 corridor across portions of DE, eastern PA, into NY and 
points east.  As precipitable water values of over 2.25 inches 
work inland aided by easterly low level flow with the track 
orienting NNE over the period, expect efficient rain rates and 
training (as the propagation vectors and mean wind align) not only 
across much of Delaware, eastern PA (Poconos), NJ and into update 
NY associated with northern quadrants but with thunderstorms 
moving across Long Island and points north into CT/RI and MA.  
Areal average precipitation is around 1-3+ inches with locally 
higher amounts possible.  Given much of this region has received 
an abundance of rain over the past several days, especially 
eastern PA/NJ and update NY, feel soils are sensitive to 
additional rainfall.  Therefore, a Slight Risk was introduced 
based on the latest QPF/model trends.  A Moderate Risk may be 
needed, especially for the urban sector, if the QPF continues to 
highlight this region and trend upward.

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

    • Like 1

    December 2019

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    ...Central Appalachians through New England... Day 3... A cold front will drop southeast through the region Tuesday afternoon, while a southern stream shortwave lags back across Texas. As this shortwave begins to lift northeast, forcing through height falls and mid-level divergence will lift atop the front producing anafrontal moisture. As the cold air continues to filter southeastward, the column will cool, and forcing may become intense through robust and steeply sloped 850-600mb frontogenesis overlapped with RRQ diffluence of an intensifying 170+kt upper jet streak. The combination of intense ascent and a cooling column will cause precipitation to changeover from rain to snow. The guidance still differs considerably in timing and location of precipitation, but confidence is increasing in at least light snow accumulations along a swath from central TN northeast into southern ME. WPC probabilities for 2" are above 10% only in the terrain of the central Appalachians and into the Catskills/Berkshires, but with such intense forcing it is possible the column will cool more rapidly, and light snow accumulations may be possible early Wednesday even into the I-95 corridor.

    https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

    December 2019

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

    Nam crushes the area but temps are a bit warm for the city but you never know sometimes models underestimate dynamic and wetbulbing cooling if you will.

    nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.thumb.png.f44916450f783e23a0318b6ea0a3399f.png.efaff3c7df735de20840a7188cb07bc2.png

    more brush than crush atm

     

    • Like 1
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