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Doorman

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    Small or possibly moderate wintry event possible for a portion of the NYC subforum Friday morning-early afternoon 1/7/22

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

    Have they nailed down a start time? 

    SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

***Quick hitting system to bring snow Thursday night into early
Friday***

The main story for this part of the forecast will be coastal storm
system forecast to bring snow overnight Thursday night into early
Friday. There are still some differences in the forecast models with
the NAM being a weaker, farther south/east outlier while the GFS
continues to be a bit fast. Leaned towards a blend weighted heavier
towards the 12z GEM Reg / 12z HRRR/ 6z NAM. These models are a bit
stronger with the low and farther N/W compared to other guidance
that`s trended a bit farther south/east over the past day or two.
However given the set up of a fairly robust upper level wave and the
history of these types of systems tend to favor this slightly
stronger solution. Bottom line, we have become confident enough in a
fairly widespread 2-4+ inches of snowfall accumulation to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for most zones, excluding the coastal strip
south of Monmouth Co, NJ and the southern Poconos where
confidence and amounts are a bit lower. Also, sleet and even
some rain could mix in near the coast.

In terms of the details, deepening low pressure moves northeast off
the Virginia / NC coast Thursday night in response to a strong upper
level wave moving eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow
overspreads the region west to east late Thursday evening into the
overnight (mostly after 10 PM) with the heaviest precip likely
falling in the 1am - 7am period. While our official snowfall
forecasts remain capped to the 2 to 4 inch range for much of the
CWA, there are a couple important things to note: 1) This will be a
fast moving system with snow falling over just several hours that
will unfortunately coincide with the Friday AM commute. 2) We
still think there is the potential for an embedded heavier band
of snow with totals in the 4-6+ inch range. Uncertainty still on
exactly where this would occur but somewhere near or just south
of the I-95 corridor appears most heavily favored. 
    For this
reason, this could still be an impactful event despite the
current snowfall forecast not being that high. This will be
monitored closely and if confidence for this increases, Winter
Storm Warnings will be considered.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    5493295b-5e8a-4420-9485-58e6bab23cbe.thumb.gif.60841782a7fab129ada8e5f828e2ccec.gif

    • Like 1

    Small or possibly moderate wintry event possible for a portion of the NYC subforum Friday morning-early afternoon 1/7/22

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    WPC winter disco

    This
    forecast cycle showed an eastern trend, keeping the low track far
    enough offshore such that the QPF/snow forecast trended downward,
    especially inland/interior areas. With the signal for the system
    to be 1) more offshore and 2) very fast moving - probabilities of
    heavy snow have decreased this cycle, however there continues to
    be some ensemble support for a stronger/closer system so over the
    next several days the details will ironed out

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

     

     

    • Like 1

    Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

     

    Your mustard must be in your eyes because either,

    A. you're blind

    B. you're a troll

    C. you're a liar

     

    Which is it?

    The forecasted-----wpc map

    was issued out of their office at  10:08pm EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME----  last night----

    almost 5 hours before the euro is available

    he must be a  joker or a genius......  

    we done here

     

     

    9jhwbg_conus.gif

    Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

    I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas

    I think 6 plus for the metro will be a stretch.... this is the noaa metro prog for 7:00 pm Wed night

    1 inch prog

    the euro has it weaken to about 1004mb trucking east 12 hours later

    do the math....

    2030410447_Screenshot2020-12-14002022.png.daca1c41c0f81e93e56544d37f4f6e64.png

     

    https://digital.weather.gov/

    where is my mustard....:pepsi:

     

    • Confused 2

    The "Double Trouble" Banter Thread

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, notlikethis said:

    Obviously paying close attention to Laura, but meanwhile in the west Pacific, Typhoon Bevi is undergoing steady intensification to a peak of around 105-110 kts today as it enters the Yellow Sea on an approach to the North Korea/China border

    https://himawari8-dl.nict.go.jp/himawari8/movie/720/20200826_pir3.mp4?uid=1598407851234

     

    tga_irv_0200_3.jpg

    Speak to me of that Typhoon Rule that teleconnects to Laura ......so a Cat 5 is on the table?????

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